Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's inside day and the overnight action preceding it were both pretty volatile. Both contained round trips that recovered entirely from relatively deep, steep dives -- 11 points and 14 points, respectively. Tuesday's intraday pattern had contained a similar sequence, sliding 25 points down to 2722.25 before recovering. Wednesday's intraday low was also 2722.25, stopping short of the morning's 2720.25. It became "unfinished business" as the balance of the session ranged choppily above it, closing at 2730.00-2731.00. Overnight action's new info... The Globex session's first order of business was to trend back down to Tuesday-Wednesday's 2722.25 low. Once again only touching it was sufficient to hold its test. But no bounce developed, only a relatively narrow range through midnight, resisted by what is this morning's 2725.50 bias-down signal. Probing the range's lower-end momentarily before Europe's opens touched Wednesday's unfinished business at 2720.25 to neutralize it. But its reaction back up to 2725.50 was quickly rejected by a collapse that has now extended down to 2710.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Inside days don't require resolving within any specific time frame or in either direction. Neither do inside days undermine the underlying trend. So, the rally's next higher target at 2751.00 remains intact. The only questions are how deep of a rubber band stretch would be enough for its snap back up to resume the rally, and how deep would be enough to invalidate the 2751.00 target. "Lower prior highs" at 2708.00-2709.00 are the first opportunity to launch a reaction back up. The next opportunity would be 2688.00-2690.00, but any lower would start to suggest a much deeper reversal is underway. Two potentially bullish setups have formed. First is the past several sessions' extended narrowing range, a pattern that often breaks falsely in one direction (down) before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction (up). Second is the relentless overnight trending that can be difficult to attract post-open reinforcements. I'll have parameters on-screen at the open to identify whether the setups are extending or being rejected. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2715.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2718.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2710.25. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2720.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2725.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Post-open lows react up sharply. Then fail, more sharply. A pre-open blip-down had pierced the 2708.00-2709.00 "lower prior highs" I described during the Market Tour. Its reaction up to 2715.50 revealed the inherent support there, as suspected there would be. But an intraday test would be optimal for the purpose of reversing the overnight trend back up. So, post-open action slid to 2705.50.

That was more than 30 minutes following the open, before one bar finally didn't overlap 2708.00-2709.00. It also probed a fresh low, making it a "detached bar" that reflects sentiment either becoming extreme, or making its extreme.

It was the latter, and price began firming. Then rallying. And pretty quickly, surging more than 10 points to touch this morning's 2718.25 bias-down target as resistance. Perhaps a little too quickly. In fact, too quick of a reward, as China trade headlines triggered a sell signal. That has plunged to fresh lows at 2699.50.

Regardless of the decline's degree, entering the noon hour back above 2708.00-2709.00 -- preferably already exiting the bias environment higher -- would suggest that sellers are done. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest. And extending down would next target 2688.00-2690.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2672.25 2695.50 ...would target 2704.75 2703.00 Bias-down: under 2689.50 2688.00 ...would target 2683.50 2682.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Snapped stretch trying to snap back. "Lower prior highs" at 2708.00-2709.00 defined the open, while being probed down to 2705.25. And it could have defined a bottom. But its reaction up to 2718.50 came too quickly to attract more reinforcements than inhibit them. And a China trade headline transformed an otherwise healthy pullback into resuming the decline. The next lower objective at 2688.00-2690.00 was tested down to 2687.25 as the bias environment lapsed. The noon hour's lower lows at 2685.50 were recovered enough and in time to avoid triggering the afternoon's 2688.00 bias-down signal. Its reactions held tests of the 2695.50 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. No-bias trending just touched 2700.00, requiring that 2695.50 be retraced. No-bias trending has room up to 2705.00 without even threatening to reverse momentum up. Meanwhile, back under 2693.50 could resume the decline, or at least probe fresh session lows.

REMINDER: I'm away from the screens Friday when the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 ET. There will be no Market Wrap or Saturday Review. Thursday's open was greeted by a relentless overnight slide from 2731.00 down to 2712.00. "Lower prior highs" at 2708.00-2709.00 had been pierced before the open, but needed an intraday test for a recovery to be reliable. The open held its test down to 2705.25 and reacted up to 2718.50, but a headline reaction triggered a collapse to fresh lows. Not only to fresh lows, but to the next lower objective at 2688.00-2690.00. It was tested down to 2685.50 during the noon hour, which held. Its reaction only backed-and-filled up to 2700.00. The last half-hour broke higher to touch the 2705.25 pre-open low as resistance. Closing back above 2708.00-2709.00 would have signaled that sellers were absorbed, and that momentum had reversed up. By proxy, gapping up Friday above Thursday's open could be just as bullish and durable. The decline could simply resume, since it hasn't yet been rejected. And having bounced into the close, gapping down to and/or through Thursday afternoon's 2689.00 low could form a session-long decline. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2711.00 2709.50 ...would target 2719.00 2717.50 Bias-down: under 2696.25 2695.00 ...would target 2688.25 2687.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.