Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Firming during Biden's SOTU retraced 61.8% back to Tue high at 4170 through midnight. Reversing back down greeted the open at 4150 support which reacted up to test the 4167 proxy gap. Fed speaker headlines reversed its recovery, instead forming the first 4 stages of a 5-Stage pattern down to 4141. Not holding 4145's test enabled the pullback to become more substantial, and the bias window extended to 4124. The noon hour's to 4148 reacted back down to 4131.
Overnight price points : Wed's late isolation attempt during the 3:10-3:20 Proxy Window had stopped short of recovering resistance, so its recovery wasn't extended higher pre-close. But its productivity has trended up since then -- hovering at the 4139 bias-up signal through midnight, surging from 4145 at Europe's opens, and extending eventually to 4170. Currently a pullback is testing 4159.
Catalysts : Earnings winding down.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Relentless overnight trending.
Their influences : So long as pre-open weakness holds the overnight rally's last relative low at 4157, the rally can either attract reinforcements or countertrend sponsorship.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Wed barely closed above 4125 to isolate the pullback limit's test... again... but no relevant resistance was recovered. Sellers could have produced fresh lows overnight but instead Tue's pre-open Complex Triangle has been recovered entirely to 4170. Any higher, as would have been the case at yesterday's open, could extend higher through the morning -- despite already having trended up considerably overnight. Just exiting the open at 9:45 above 4166 would significantly increase this potential.
Alternative : Sellers could retake control back under 4157, more easily back under 4150, but would still encounter supports at the 4153 and 4139 bias-up parameters before even threatening an extension down to 4070-4080.
Levels : UP: 4208, 4231, 4263... DOWN: 4140, 4118, 4074.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Wed's late isolation attempt during the 3:10-3:20 Proxy Window had stopped short of recovering resistance, so its recovery wasn't extended higher pre-close. But its productivity trended up since then to 4170. A pre-open pullback tested 4157 by 1 point.
New price points : Resolving beyond either 4157-4166 through the open was likely to extend, but each held its test. Eking lower to 4150 broke lower through the first hour to within 2 points of the 4140 bias-up signal.
Catalysts : Retrace of Wed's drop, Earnings winding down.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP RENEWED... Relentless overnight trending.
Their influences : So long as pre-open weakness holds the overnight rally's last relative low at 4157, the rally can either attract reinforcements or countertrend sponsorship.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Selling after the 10:15 bias-up was renewed is assumed to be weak-handed, and likely to recover if not also to resume the rally. Back above 4150 would be a start, but also back above 4163-64.
Alternative : Despite not resolving the open beyond its tests of 4157-4166 and also triggering renewed bias-up, a slide is attacking the 4139 bias-up signal as support. Having fulfilled its target, rejecting the signal can be bearish. But it would leave unfinished business above at the 4139 retrace.
Levels : UP: 4208, 4231, 4263... DOWN: 4140, 4118, 4074.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

THU P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4141, targeting 4155.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4127, targeting 4115.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.