Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Flat-to-lower ranging began breaking lower 60-90 minutes before Wednesday's open, sliding through the open from 3930.50 down to 3896.50. The timing wasn't optimal for a late-am-break setup, but reacted anyway back into the earlier range. Attacking earlier lows ended in time to rally through the noon hour, and then almost through the close to within 2 ticks of 3930.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Similar to the prior night, initially testing the bias-up signal up to 3936.00 was reversed to test the bias-down target at 3910.00. And now a fresh low is testing 3904.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) A lot of buying pressure was expended off of yesterday's lows without recovering any relevant resistance. Overnight action is a consequence of that, with more to come if not rejected through the open. A sub-optimal bullish PM Traction setup could still control the bias window if the first-15 minutes were to trend up. Otherwise, sellers maintaining control through the open would likely retest Wednesday's lows down to 3894.00, if not lower down to 3881.00. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Target met, attacking week-old lows. The 3899.00 open reacted up only to 3906.50, well under this morning's bias-down parameters. The first-15 minute range wasn't broken immediately, but its eventual break extended down. The 3881.00 target was met at the bottom of the hour. Proving the target's relevant, its RSIs diverged positively and price has reacted up to 3895.00. Nothing ensures bouncing any higher, and actually reversing the trend up requires recovering the opening range's upper-end. A trend of lower lows and lower highs meanwhile remains intact. Back under 3885.25 would signal the drop is resuming. The next lower significant objective would be 3851.50, with potential to hijack the drop at 3869.50 or 3861.50.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is LATE BIAS-UP BIAS-UP: above 3899.75 signal would target 3909.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3884.00 signal would target 3676.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Probing the morning's highs. Bouncing of of this morning's 3881.00 target up to 3901.50 didn't enter the noon hour above the open's ~3906.00 highs. Its reaction down was on-track to exit the noon hour under still under the open's highs. Then came a grace period. Then came a surge. Suddenly, a late bias-up above 3899.75 has extended to probe the 3909.75 bias-up target up to 3912.75. Exiting the bias window above this morning's high would still be bullish, but much more in need of further confirmation than would its earlier recovery. Sellers won't be marginalized, and exiting this bias window back under the open's range could trend down through the close. Broad declines among many Tech stocks may be hoping for favorable post-close earnings from ROKU to stem the bleeding. We've discussed several recent examples of favorable earnings surprises that nevertheless reacted down. Overcoming that pattern would be bullish across the board.

Reversing Wednesday's gap down had failed to recover above a relevant level. The consequence was Thursday's drop, which happened to also begin by gapping down under its prior session's lows. Their immediate resolutions differed, but Thursday ultimately recovered to a similar degree from 3880.50 back up to 3918.50. The gap-to-gap proxy ended the bounce, once again recovering no relevant resistance. The intraday recovery's uptrend remained intact through Thursday's close, barely. Otherwise, its combination with holding negative territory would have been bearish. Instead, the bounce isn't required to fail, but probably will anyway if Friday's open isn't already rallying. Resuming the decline could not only retest Thursday's low but also break under it. The next downleg's target would be 3851.50, with interim support at 3869.50 and 3861.50 that could abridge the drop. Or, could have, being more difficult to attract counter-trend sponsorship on Fridays. Don't be alarmed, not too alarmed, not yet, but the latest thing among financial-types' hairstyles seems borrowed from a futuristic dystopia. . .. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is LATE BIAS-UP BIAS-UP: above 3916.75 signal would target 3927.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3905.50 signal would target 3896.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals.