Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 02-19-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Conditions at Wednesday's close had suggested Thursday's session was likely to back-and-fill, which it did. Thursday's 1927.25 high had been probed overnight up to 1933.25, but the open was back at or under 1927.25. And the balance of the session repeatedly dipped to attack 1911.00-1912.00 three times. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts. Overnight action's new info... Eventually firming up to 1922.75 was reversed back down to and through Thursday's lows to 1906.50. A bounce is now testing 1911.00-1912.00. If, then... The actively bullish WedEX signal had been one reason for Thursday's session to back-and-fill. Its bullish influence Friday afternoon allowed for weak-handed sellers. Thursday's sellers didn't gain traction, so that template appears to be developing. Now maintaining the template would disallow gapping down, or else rallying immediately out of a gap down. Gapping down would allow yesterday's decline to extend despite sellers not having gained traction, which would undermine the afternoon's impending bullish WedEX influence. So, gapping down without recovering is the only setup that could begin to invalidate the bullish WedEX. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45

Pre-open dip tries extending, fails. The 1901.75 bias-down target had been attacked to within 2 ticks before the open, which then surged to 1909.00. Another dip extended to fresh lows at 1898.75. That low was retested after an interim bounce up to the 1907.00 bias-down signal.  But the bias-down target held as support. And eventually, so did the bias-down signal, triggering a late no-bias. Now yesterday's "higher prior lows" are being tested up to 1912.00. Rejecting tests of both bias-down parameters puts into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. A timely signal would have required at least the bias-up signal's test. This morning's late signal doesn't require anything, but tests of both bias-up parameters remains likely. This afternoon's bullish WedEX continues to suggest that sellers will continually fail their attempts to retake control. That said, exiting the bias environment back under 1907.00 would undermine the afternoon upside.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1921.25 1918.00 ...would target  1926.00  1923.00 Bias-down: under  1908.00  1905.00 ...would target 1903.25  1900.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

lede . This morning's bias environment was exited above its 1907.00 bias-down signal. Being a late no-bias that rejected tests of both bias-down parameters, that exit keeps alive potential for offsetting tests of this morning's 1920.00 and 1926.50 bias-up parameters. In fact, the bias environment exit touched 1916.00. The afternoon no-bias bias environment ranged sideways, 2-3 points either way around 1911.00-1912.00, almost exclusively in negative territory. Now the afternoon bias environment is lapsing. Its late bounce to 1914.50 has reacted down to the range's 1909.50 lower-end. This dip must be reversed back up above 1911.00-1912.00 and higher into the final hour if WedEX's bullish influence is intact. Fresh afternoon lows into the final hour would be difficult to recover today.

The afternoon bias environment was exited by dipping under 1909.50 to 1908.00. The final hour was spent recovering the afternoon's 1914.50 high up to 1915.25. That modest fresh high fulfills the bullish WedEX signal. Not so much the higher high, as absorbing a fresh low. Hardly worth it, except that the signal influences Monday morning, too. And this action Friday afternoon dictates a very specific resolution coming out of the weekend. We'll talk about that at the Saturday Review. I'll send out its link overnight. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1921.00 1918.00 ...would target  1926.00  1923.00 Bias-down: under  1910.75  1907.75 ...would target 1904.50  1901.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.