Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's gap down to 3357.00 didn't hesitate long before collapsing 25 points retest Thursday's "V" bottom down to 3336.25. Its reaction resolved down to the retest's actual 3333.00 target. Another reaction through the noon hour also resolved down to fresh lows at 3328.00. Friday's last minutes bounced sharply back up to 3341.00 resistance, but probably only the product of expiration's influence. A hold-short was nonetheless compelling. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) More coronavirus cases were augmented by international border closings to trigger massive selling pressures coming out of the weekend. The minimum target for a hold-short was 3323.00, and Sunday night's open gapped even lower to 3309.00-3312.00. It collapsed immediately to 3289.50, testing the decline's next lower target at 3291.00. Its influence was heroic, but eventually gave way into and out of Europe's opens as the decline doubled down to 3242.00. A range back up to 3261.00 has developed. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Other than to repeat that there is no "unfinished business" above, little else can be listed to determine the market's next move. The situation is fluid, and much can change before the open. Its current indication is attacking the 3239.50 room for noise under the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the rally's latest upleg. Its influence has reached out from nowhere to stop the latest downleg, and to hold its retest. Not holding its test through the open would next target 3171.00, with potential for interim support upon testing the 3200.00 area. A morning rally could reach 3294.00 while still being likely to resolve down. Whatever the interim gyrations and resolution, be very careful to maintain stops, and to not trust the durability of trending attempts in either direction. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Levels are currently well  under the bias parameters.

It's uglier than it looks. The 3242.00 overnight low's Double Bottom had produced a bounce to 3266.00. It resolved back down to fresh lows on the way to the 3233.00 open. And through the open to 3229.50. But only for a moment. Its reaction surged to attack 3255.00. And it extended to 3260.00.

The controlling pattern was a 5-Stage Turn. The pre-open downleg had formed a Falling Wedge, entered and exited aggressively. Reversing up during the first 15 minutes of volatility -- when overnight and intraday timing window influences overlap -- would target the Wedge's upper-quadrant at 3255.00. Bouncing higher never exceeded the Wedge.

Choppy ranging between 3251.00-3260.00 persisted through the bias timing window. The last buying effort peaked at 10:15 and has slid back to 3237.50. Uptrending support is being tested at 3241.00, the same support trendline that had supported the earlier overnight lows. Exiting the bias environment any lower would next target 3171.00. Despite productive selling since 10:15, this dip isn't entirely reliable. Back above 3250.50 would start to signal a bigger bounce underway. Its minimum objective would be 3272.00, but potentially to 3293.50.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3243.50 3243.00 ...would target 3251.00 3250.50 Bias-down: under 3232.75 3232.50 ...would target 3225.50 3225.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The door is wide open for something more substantial. Forget about correcting February's rally leg. Now it has been retraced entirely. January 31's 3212.75 low was just attacked to within 1 point. That's a lot of damage. And a lot of selling, down 125 points at the low. A bounce is attacking this afternoon's 3232.50 bias-down signal, at least to within 2 points. Its resistance should define the window's upper-end if tested. Breaking it earlier would be required to retrace, but breaking above it later could extend. Fresh afternoon highs could extend to 3237.50 and still be likely to resolve down. There's no requirement for any further delay to resolving down. And there's little constraint to resolving down, next targeting 3200.00 and then 3171.00. If the decline resumes today, the next lower objective could be met, or even exceeded. Rarely anything bullish develops near-term when extending trending through the noon hour that already trended through the weekend's exit.

Friday's hold-short from 3337.00 was targeting at least a 14-point gap down Monday to 3323.00. It was another 90 points lower at 3233.00. A correction of February's rally became its entire retracement back to within 1 point of the Jan 31 3213.00 low. The afternoon bias environment's bounce formed a 5-Stage Turn pattern that fulfilled being retraced entirely to its origin 3225.00 and slipped to 3220.50 through the close. Prior tests of the Jan 31 3213.00 low were Dec 31-Jan 3, so Monday erased all of 2020's gains. Only 3 days since fulfilling the rally's 3391.00 objective. Despite covering a lot of ground, a lot of ground has been covered so quickly that it seems premature to have yet absorbed the drop's catalyst. That's more a function of time than of price, but it probably results in lower price anyway. Eventually probing lower lows is likely, and nothing requires its delay. Extending the decline isn't required before rallying, or attempting to rally. Fresh lows would target 3171.00 and 3135.00-3140.00. Bounces could test 3288.00 before suggesting they're not just temporary detours. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3230.75 3230.25 ...would target 3238.25 3237.75 Bias-down: under 3219.50 3219.25 ...would target 3213.25 3213.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.