Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Dipping 32 points overnight to 3866.00 was recovered entirely through the open up to 3903.50, only to snap back down and attack overnight low to within 2 points. Another bounce to unchanged at 3900.00 was also reversed down 30 points to 3866.00 through the final hour. Both morning and afternoon sellers accomplished nothing that wasn't already done overnight. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Relentless overnight trending through midnight and Europe's opens has retraced the origin of yesterday's final hour, 30-point collapse from 3896.00 by 1 point. The uptrend remains intact so far while reacting down for 2-1/2 hours. The 3887.25 bias-up target just is now serving as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) This morning's setup is similar to  Monday's overnight retrace of Friday's last-minute plunge. Tuesday's resulting bearishness failed to gain traction, similar to the 2-week decline's ineffectual pessimism we had discussed on Saturday. Sellers expended a lot of energy in each instance, without gaining traction for either effort. This may facilitate extending higher post-open, which otherwise is not required. Backing-and-filling has room to 3778.00-3781.00 just as noise, especially if the first 15 minutes doesn't reflect reinforcements arriving to extend the Relentless Overnight trending (if it's intact at the open). Meanwhile, Bitcoin BTC is breaking higher, which the Market Wrap spends awhile dissecting. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

And not by a little. A post-open rally was snatched from its sponsorship's jaws by a big miss in ADP's econ report. Being a precursor to Friday's Employment Situation report, its reaction has been exacerbated. PMI data reacted only briefly bullishly, before falling through ISM data. I had better quit reciting the alphabet before I get Cancelled. Anyway, a consolidating is format off of the 3833.50 38.2 of the 38.2 gap-to-gap proxy from Fri-Mon. An aggressive buy signal is being tested up to 3854.25, attacking 3856.00 whose recovery would offer confidence in sellers being done. Meanwhile, responding to the 38.2 of the 38.2 means its retest probably ignores the 3826.00 61.8 of the 61.8 gap-to-gap proxy. The next lower objective could continue with prior decline's work, next targeting 3774.00-3777.00.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL BIAS-UP: above 3873.25 signal would target 3886.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3850.50 signal would target 3838.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

No attractions or objectives in-play. This morning's 3898.00 low reacted up to 3867.00 until the bias window began lapsing. Reacting down through the noon hour retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the bounce back to 3845.50. Another bounce to 3861.00 triggered a clean no-bias. No attraction is currently in-play. No objective is in-play, other than the 3850.50-3873.25 bias signals defining either end of the window if tested. The window's 3850.50 lower-end is being tested now. Despite being likely to define the window's lower-end, back under 3843.00 would start to suggest a retest of the lows. Retesting the lows would target 3826.00, and not much support lies nearby it. Similarly, this morning's bounce held a test of today's 3865.00 gap-to-gap proxy. Following the interim 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} dip I describe above, there's no bearish reason to revisit the bounce's high, which would likely rally aggressively and/or relentlessly into the close.

Tuesday's final hour 60-point collapse had been retraced through Europe's opens up to 3898.00. Already retracing greeted ADP at 3875.00, and its miss collapsed through Tuesday's 3866.00 lows. Being a precursor to Friday's payrolls report exacerbated the ADP reaction to support at Fri-Mon's 3833.50 gap-to-gap proxy. Bouncing back up to 3866.00 only reacted down coming out of the morning bias window, extending down to 3813.50 through the close.

Already retesting afternoon lows down to 3824.00 made the close a compelling hold-short, a little less so for the close extending down another 10 points. The next attraction now only 13 points lower at 3800.50. Gee, hold-short doesn't sound very compelling from that.

And that alone is not so compelling, without including the implied odds of breaking lower, or at least the greater likelihood of extending down first. There was no upside momentum at Wednesday's close, and a retest of 3800.50 is likely to visit 3793.50, whose break would target 3777.00.

There's also this. Wednesday's late 3813.50 low is testing a narrow cluster of influential levels, which would be a very compelling knife-catch at any other time of day. But closing there prevented strong-handed countertrend sponsorship from defending the level, and that often opens sharply lower.

So far, a multi-week uptrending channel remains intact. I'm giving a benefit of the doubt to Wednesday afternoon's no-bias trending not being invalidated, so a bounce to at least its 3850.50 bias-down signal is unfinished business above. None of which prevents dramatically extending down into Friday's payrolls. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL BIAS-UP: above 3828.25 signal would target 3841.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3808.50 signal would target 3797.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals.