Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 03-04-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday's choppy ranging duplicated a choppy overnight that had probed new highs attacking 1288.00. Rallying into the afternoon extended to higher highs attacking the rally's 1293.00 potential to within 5 ticks. No traction was gained for the effort, despite shrugging off anxiousness ahead of Friday's payrolls report to produce a new recovery high close. Overnight action's new info... After firming to touch 1993.00, a pullback fell to 1987.00 through Europe's opens. Consolidating there was reversed up, recovering to fresh highs at 1994.50. If, then... The overnight probe of fresh highs is so far a singular probe, so it is not a "new Globex trend extreme" that would require intraday retest. Having produced fresh highs overnight after dipping under yesterday's close, greeting the open under the overnight highs would be vulnerable to tending straight down this morning -- at least, it would be a last line of defense. Recovering that deep of a dip through the open, or simply avoiding the dip altogether, would be similarly vulnerable to trending straight up. First Trade... Preliminary indications are not considered before an Employment Situation report.

Payrolls' surge drops back into the range. The pre-open Employment Situation report was greeted at 1995.00. Its knee-jerk reaction surged to 2002.25, which reacted down quickly to 1988.00. The open was greeted back at 1995.00. A post-open dip back under 1993.00 targeted a retest of the pre-open bounce, or at least to within 3 ticks, which was fulfilled down to 1988.50. That post-open dip extended to 1984.00. And that post-open dip held its test of the 1985.00 bias-down signal. So, dspite having tested the 1993.75 bias-up signal, and offsetting retest of it was put into play. The retest has been fulfilled already. In fact, it is extending to also test 1997.25 resistance. This is still a no-bias environment. At least a pullback to the 1993.75 bias-up signal is likely at some point. Its test might hold and launch a retest of the preopen high, although its retest isn't required. Retesting the pre-open high first would be even more vulnerable to reversing back down.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2004.75 2002.50 ...would target  2011.25  2009.00 Bias-down: under  1995.25  1993.00 ...would target 1988.25  1986.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

TODAY'S MARKET WRAP WILL BE HELD ONE HOUR EARLY AT 3:03 PM ET, AND I WILL BE AWAY FROM THE SCREENS THROUGH THE SESSION'S LAST HOUR. The noon hour had tested this afternoon's 2002.50 bias-up signal, but it wasn't triggered. That hasn't prevented probing above it to 2007.50 in what is called "no-bias trending." The last time we saw that was way, way back this morning. No bias-trending requires retracing at least to the bias signal that should have defined the no-bias range. This morning's is 1993.75, and it still requires retest. Meanwhile, 2992.50 is being tested as the bias environment lapse comes within view. The noon hour's pattern suggests a fresh session high would print. It also suggests the higher would be vulnerable to reversing down. Exiting the bias environment under prior highs would be bearish. Otherwise, not reversing down obviously by the time the final hour begins, would remain vulnerable to extending higher into the close.

That's right, PRE-market Wrap. We held it one hour early today as I am away from the screens for the final hour... The morning's 1993.75 bias-up signal had been probed during its no-bias environment, requiring a complete retracement. In the interim, the noon hour's pattern had formed a reversal pattern that produces one last leg in the trend's direction before failing. So, its test of 2007.50 was reversed back under a 2004.25 sell signal, and extended down relentlessly to 1990.75. We'll review that and more during this weekend's Saturday Review -- Its link will be emailed overnight. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the PRE-CLOSE Wrap recording here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2004.50 2002.50 ...would target 2011.00  2009.00 Bias-down: under  1994.50  1992.50 ...would target 1988.00  1986.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.