Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 03-17-2015

Pre-Open Stock Forecast - 8:09 AM

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Monday''s rally was good to the last drop. Its gap up to 2054.00 extended higher quickly to remove any concern that its extreme sentiment would become a sentiment extreme. Gapping up to Thursday''s close immediately retraced Friday''s decline, which had developed despite Thursday''s "session-long rally" setup having gained traction. The open fulfilled its 2066.00 target, and the morning''s high 2069.25 essentially fuflilled the leg''s 2070.00 area target. Extending higher into the final hour touched 2073.50 resistance, and a last-minute blip-up stopped 3 ticks short of 2074.75 resistance into the cash session close. Only then did price plunge to 2067.50 through the futures close.

Overnight action''s new info...
Sliding into the futures close was extended down through the Globex open to 2064.75. A 3-point high range was probed temporarily up to 2070.00. Its reaction back into the overnight range extended through it to fresh lows at 2060.75.

If, then...
Will Monday''s rally fall victim to its own success? Every upleg met its target, fulfilling that much more buying pressure. The rally still gained traction for its effort by exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour''s high and by entering the final hour even higher. Is Tuesday''s session about to ignore that, like Friday''s drop ignored the traction Thursday gained. That''s what last night''s slide is threatening. But gapping down, alone, won''t be bearish -- not if yesterday afternoon''s 2065.25 low is recovered through the open. It''s being probed now.. Triggering bias-down 30-45 minutes later could trend back down through the morning, returning to Friday''s lows.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2068.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2067.00 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. (Holding a test of the bias-down signal through 10:15 would then put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal). Exiting the open under 2061.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2060.25 bias-down target through 10:15. (Exceeding the bias-down target would renew the bias-down signal, putting into play a lower bias-down target.)


Day Trading Post Open Signals - 10:44 AM

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Another rally''s traction rejected.

The overnight slide to 2060.75 was retraced pre-open to test 2065.25. That was yesterday afternoon''s bias environment low. Maintaining a gap down under it would form a "session-long decline."

The 2063.75 open bounced up to test 2067.00. Being this morning''s bias-down signal, it is resistance. Not recovering it through 10:15 would trigger bias-down.

In fact, its reaction down plunged to 2059.00, testing its 2060.25 bias-down target. Bouncing again held above the bias-down target to prevent renewing the bias-down signal. 

But this is still a bias-down environment, whose upper-end should be defined by the 2067.00 bias-down signal. And while the bias-down target isn''t likely to break lower during the bias environment since it held its test through 10:15, it still may.

This is also a "session-long decline," since the gap down under 2065.25 wasn''t recovered through 9:45. Not for lack of trying, considering the bounce up to 2067.00. But now all but one timing window should probe under the prior timing window''s low.

That one exception is usually the noon hour. But it would be this morning''s bias environment if the open''s 2059.00 low isn''t probed by 11:30. And entering the noon hour back above 2067.00 would instead invert the session-long decline, becoming as bullish as the setup would have been bearish.


Tonight's Day Trading Strategy - 12:00 PM

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TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2074.00
2065.75
...would target 2079.00
2071.00
Bias-down: under 2063.25
2057.25
...would target 2058.75
2050.50
Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.


Daily Spot - 2:44 PM

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.0650 buy signal was tested Tuesday morning, but held. The gap back down to Monday''s ~1.0590 close was filled, leaving no momentum active in either direction.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The required fresh low under 1146.50 with room for noise down to 1141.00 was fulfilled almost entirely soon after Tuesday''s open. A massive surge to 1158.00 was retraced back down to retest 1146.50, which was recovered back up to 1148.00 at the close. Not closing decisively under 1148.00 does keep the door open to recovering 1154.00 and 1161.00 to reverse the trend back up. Meanwhile, not yet recovering through Wednesday''s close -- or not rallying to fresh highs in reaction to Wednesday''s post-close FOMC news -- could then trend down a lot.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday''s quick dip filled the gap back outstanding at  Wednesday''s close, but tested it only momentarily before surging back to and through the interim highs. The gap-fill''s delay had suggested its test would include a probe under Wednesday''s low before recovering, but that wasn''t required, so the reaction up is credible for extending higher.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Repeatedly holding tests of 159-12/159-24 support was rewarded by trending higher Monday night to 161-12. Post-open highs tested and retested 161-21. Wednesday''s FOMC news is being greeted from a position of strength, at least to expect a knee-jerk reaction down to 159-12/159-24 support to recover. But closing under it would not be bullish.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Pivot Reversal? Fresh trend lows intraday tested 42.65, and then recovered into positive territory above 44.00. That was retraced back down to test the 43.11 opening gap, which held as support. A higher close would have been optimal, but this sequence otherwise forms a bullish "Pivot Reversal" that must be confirmed by essentially extending higher without delay above 44.30. Otherwise, the trend remains down and next targeting 37.15.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapped up through its 2.77 buy signal to test 2.84. Like its prior two tests, probes above it continued overlapping it through the close instead of exceeding it decisively. Unlike its prior two tests the close was above 2.84. It might be premature to resolve up while having created a gap back down to Monday''s 2.71 close. Regardless, I still don''t view the current range as distribution or a continuation and expect it to resolve up.


Tomorrow's Day Trading Predictions - 4:42 PM

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WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2079.75
2071.50
...would target 2086.00
2078.00
Bias-down: under 2068.25
2060.25
...would target 2061.75
2053.50
Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.