Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) The 3978.50 overnight high's Globex extreme requires intraday retest, but that didn't prevent trending back down overnight to 3932.00. On the flip-side, triggering a bearish Globex-flip didn't make the morning downtrend any deeper. But revisiting 3931.00-3933.00 had doomed to failure the morning's bounce up to 3959.00, which resolved down to 3900.50 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sideways ranging was narrowly confined between 3907.50-3916.50 through midnight. A dip briefly pierced yesterday's low down to 3898.50, stretching the rubber band. Its snap back up briefly probed the highs up to 3923.50, then settled back into the earlier range. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The overnight low stopped short of the 3896.00 area, so its reaction alone isn't any more credible for reversing the trend back up. Anyway, the fresh low and fresh high don't prevent labeling the overnight as sideways ranging, which would expect a pre-open late break to be false and reversed back into the range. Only triggering bias-up can get any benefit of the doubt for already recovering. Regardless of its timing, inflection at fresh lows would likely resolve substantially in one direction or the other into the weekend-- either extending the decline or retracing much of it. Expiration's wild card influence would be a significant influence, along with the usual Friday Factors. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Fresh pullback lows. Hovering around this morning's 3916.25 bias-up signal during the Market Tour was still likely to more thoroughly retest the overnight low's attack on the 3896.00 area. Already slipping pre-open was extended through the first half-hour down to 3875.00. That was more thoroughly than more thoroughly had required. 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs improved into the lower low, producing a 20-point reaction up to 3895.00. Having triggered bias-down -- and renewed it, having also exceeded the bias-down target through 10:15 -- the window's upper-end should be defined by its 3898.00 bias-down signal if tested. Recovering the bias-down signal through 10:30 could have invalidated its 10:15 trigger. The bounce was in proximity and could have done it, but didn't. This keeps the door open to extending the decline. Meanwhile, premature probing above 3898.00 would require being retraced.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is NO-BIAS BIAS-UP: above 3919.00 signal would target 3931.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3898.75 signal would target 3888.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Expiration's market from here on. Exiting the bias window back above 3884.25 had helped to trap sellers below it. Extending up to 3916.00 since then has only squeezed those shorts. It hasn't necessarily reversed the trend up. Expirations don't often produce two intraday reversals. No trending attempt at all would be common for expirations. But when trending is attempted, which the earlier break lower already did, then either that break is extended, or else reversed. So, the break hasn't extended, and this bounce suggests it is being reversed. Expiration trending also has a tendency to be relentless. So, extending this bounce, or reversing it, could be very substantial into the close. Back under 3906.00 would start to signal the bounce failing and potentially returning to the earlier lows. But exiting the bias window near its highs could convert the bounce into a recovery. Keep in mind that Thursday's proxy rejection of Wednesday's bullish close is waiting for trending this afternoon to forecast Monday morning's behavior. Resuming the downtrend this afternoon would point down sharply Monday morning. So, any near-term recovery should be obvious this afternoon.

Choppy sideways overnight ranging collapsed down to 3875.00 through Friday's expiration open. The next lower target in-play at 3896.00 was back to being resistance when the bias window began lapsing. Recovering it into the noon hour only ranged narrowly sideways around unchanged up to 3920.50. The final minutes collapsed again back down to 3896.00. Early trending on expiration days tends either to extend or to reverse, but Friday only retraced its early trending. Intraday dips are not inherently bearish, and can be quite bullish in refueling buyers by trapping shorts. Similar to every pullback during the past several weeks, Friday's intraday bounce stopped short of recovering a relevant resistance. Shorts are not trapped. Combined with this week having met the rally's next higher longstanding objective at 3977.00, and the 3710.00 objective of Thursday's bearish Isolation setup, potential is growing to begin a multi-week/month correction. Unfinished business above like testing the rally's objective intraday could delay the path down, or gain traction for a higher objective. We'll describe the likely paths and relevant levels at Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP BIAS-UP: above 3911.00 signal would target 3923.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3890.00 signal would target 3877.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals.