Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 03-27-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Thursday afternoon''s bias environment had triggered no-bias. But it probed above its untriggered 2054.00 bias-up signal, anyway. That "no-bias trending" up to 2058.75 required being retraced entirely, possibly down to its 2048.00 1:20pm print. And that''s where the no-bias trending''s retracement did return into the close, 5-6 points under Wednesday''s 2053.00-2054.00 close.

Overnight action''s new info...
Rallying into midnight up to 2057.75 came within 1 point of yesterday''s no-bias trending high. A bigger reversal down extended to 2041.00. That has now reacted back up to being almost unchanged at 2048.00.

If, then...
Yesterday''s negative close did not signal that the week''s decline had ended. Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for yesterday''s efforts, so trending attempted either way beyond the 2048.00-2054.00 range will remain vulnerable to returning back into the range, if not also through it more substantially in the opposite direction. Extending beyond the 2041.00-2059.00  range will be difficult, assuming that either end is tested. Trending from one bias signal to the other would be much simpler and more reliable. This being a Friday, the morning''s bias signal is likely to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2042.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2043.75 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2051.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Which may be why this one is having difficulty going up.

After recovering from 2041.00 to almost 2049.00 before the open, a pre-open dip touched this morning''s 2043.75 bias-down signal. Barely. Its reaction trended up through the open to attack 2052.00.

Recovering 2051.00 as resistance through 9:45 would have been bullish. Its test was rejected. Its retest extended grudgingly up to almost 2054.00, but couldn''t put together more than a couple of consecutive up-bars. Grudgingly is not trending.

The consequence to not extending higher was likely to be a sudden, steep and substantial reversal. And a 15-minute slide touched 2044.00. That''s within 1 tick of the bias-down signal, which did not trigger.

So, this is a no-bias environment. Which is likely to persist through the noon hour on Fridays. Probing under 2043.75 upon exiting the bias environment at 11:30 would be credible for trending down, anyway. Meanwhile, the upper-end of the range can be retested, or probed, or not even touched while remaining within the range.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2064.00
2055.75
...would target 2070.00
2061.75
Bias-down: under 2052.00
2043.75
...would target 2046.75
2038.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

I updated my Feb 24-25 topping signal at my weekly "Saturday Review" this morning. If you missed it, email me for a link to its recording -- CLICK HERE

Plan to join us tomorrow morning at 9:30am ET for my weekly Saturday Review. Just click here up to 30 minutes prior, no extra password required, and it''s no extra charge. [pretest your system here]

ANALYSIS. I''ll update my topping signal that triggered at the Feb 24-25 high. The reaction down since then has created new patterns to monitor. LEARNING. We''ll replay some of the week''s more influential repetitive setups that gave us advance notice of meaningful intraday moves. STRATEGY. We''re also going to game out the appropriate strategies for Sunday night and Monday morning''s likely opens. QUESTIONS: You''ll have time to ask questions and to request instant chart analysis of any stock or market you''re following.

Meanwhile, members can review my Resource page. Especially if you''re new to my methodology, watch and re-watch the Training Session videos (below). Make a batch of popcorn, pour your favorite beverage, put your arm around your significant other, and... sounds like a great Friday night. Check out the bias parameter videos, too.

Training video #1
Training video #2
3x3x4 Decision matrix

See you Saturday morning!

 Rod

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
.Friday morning''s low immediately fulfilled its minimum potential by piercing the 1.0805-1.0815 target area. Reacting up to 1.0960 is really just ranging around 1.0855, leaving the pattern with no momentum either way.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An early dive Friday to 1191.00 didn''t utilize all of its room down to 1190.00, but could still complete a corrective dip. Its reaction up stopped just as short of recovering 1201.50, which would have confirmed.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Early strength Friday was reversed back down into the recent narrow range, presumably on its way through it for a pullback targeting 16.45-16.60.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Friday to test the 163-08 bounce limit extended higher quickly to test 164-00 resistance. It was tested throughout the afternoon, and closing back under 163-14 would signal the bounce had resolved down to probe fresh lows.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday''s opening slide stopped optimistically short of testing Wednesday''s high, but later dipped back into its range to test the 48.75 pullback limit. It''s not assured of holding, since Thursday''s close held its test of 51.45. The usual weekend geopolitical risk premium was undermined by downplaying the Yemen situation, so holding 48.75 might be considered bullish.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The past month''s ranging proved it was not accumulative. Thursday''s reaction down to EIA produced a new low close, which Friday''s lower close confirmed. At least a third eventual lower close is required, so any immediate bounce to 2.64-2.69. is likely to fail.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2065.00
2057.00
...would target 2072.75
2064.75
Bias-down: under 2053.00
2045.00
...would target 2045.25
2037.25
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.