Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday wasn't likely to trend unless trending was established early. Which wasn't likely, when greeting the open unchanged from Wednesday's 2880.00 close. But the open soon surged to 2885.75, neutralizing the required gap-fill back up to Wednesday's 2884.75 open above all prior trend highs. Bias parameters created an attraction below at 2872.50, which was tested down to 2871.00 during the noon hour -- recovering before the noon hour's exit. Trending was unlikely, and the trending attempt failed. So the balance of the session gravitated to the range's earlier upper-end at of 2884.50. Overnight action's new info... As if trying to rekindle the magic of Tuesday night, a favorable China trade headline at 8:00 ET triggered a surge. Tuesday night's reaction had surged 13 points and extended to 21 points, probing fresh highs. Last night's surge 7-point surge didn't probe fresh highs, and didn't extend. At least, not yet. Europe's opens touched Wednesday's 2889.25, which didn't require being touched. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Bouncing back to yesterday's opens wasn't required yesterday, so that qualifies as last-minute optimism. Probing yesterday's highs overnight is more last-minute optimism, too. Both can prove bearish from a contrarian perspective. Touching Wednesday's high overnight or only piercing it without complexity doesn't reflect strong-handed sponsorship. So, resolving up this morning would likely put into play the next higher objective at 2902.00. Meanwhile, favorable knee-jerk reaction to the news could fail be reversed back down before having a chance to resolve up this morning. Finally, this being a Friday, reacting in either direction -- initially or ultimately -- would be vulnerable extending into the afternoon. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] There are no preliminary indications ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Spiking up on payrolls, recovering its retracement. 2884.75 is this morning's bias-up signal, and it held a dip back down to it before the Employment Situation report. The reaction spiked up to 2893.50, but only spiked up -- no complexity formed that otherwise would have required the spike's retest.

But its reaction down held tests of 2887.50-2888.00 to avoid reversing momentum back down. The spike's higher was retested despite no requirement.

Retesting the spike high also exceeded the 2892.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The renewed bias-up target is 2902.00. That's not required, and a probing above the pre-10:15 high would help to confirm. But Friday morning bias signals do tend to persist through the noon hour. Meanwhile, already having fulfilled the bias-up target, a reversal down would be credible. More difficult to signal, but credible. Back under 2890.75 would start getting a benefit of the doubt that the uside is donw.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2892.00 2895.75 ...would target 2898.75 2902.25 Bias-down: under 2884.25 2888.00 ...would target 2877.25 2881.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hovering at post-open highs. The Employment Situation report's spike up to 2893.50 didn't require a retest. But the post-open pullback to 2886.75 was absorbed and reversed up to fresh highs. The 2892.00 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2902.00. Renewed signals aren't required to meet their target unless confirmed through the close. But already probing above the pre-10:15 high up to 2896.50 makes that likely.

None of which seems obvious from the narrow range that has developed. Narrow ranging isn't unusual for a Friday, being one of the many Friday Factors that are a function of the impending weekend's illiquidity.

Regardless of the 2902.00 target's likelihood, a reaction down would be credible for extending. But this being a Friday and probing fresh highs, not yet reversing down as the bias environment lapses would remain more vulnerable to extending higher.

Friday's Employment Situation report was approached optimistically. Not so much restrained, but certainly not excessive. Goldilocks might have described it as: just right. The news triggered a 7-1/2 point spike up that immediately peaked, and retraced entirely through the open. Like the approach, the reaction was no so much restrained, and certainly not excessive. Neither was the reaction reversed. The open recovered through the knee-jerk reaction's 2893.50 high to a fresh high at 2896.50. Then we saw the definition of restrained, excessive restraint, as the balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways. Trading narrowly sideways into the weekend isn't surprising for Fridays. A little more surprising was trading narrowly sideways at early fresh highs. So, a little less surprising was firming to 2898.00 through the close. The next higher objective at 2902.00 is officially in-play, all of 4 points higher. Not that Friday's glacial momentum ensures resuming the rally after the weekend. Regardless, closing at a fresh trend extreme on Fridays requires an eventual higher close, even if the weekend were exited in pullback mode -- which touching 2902.00 might inspire. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2898.25 2902.00 ...would target 2907.25 2911.00 Bias-down: under 2887.00 2890.75 ...would target 2880.25 2884.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.