Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 04-25-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... The bearish WedEX faced the mother of all headwinds Monday, after Sunday night's open had gapped up 20 points to 2366.00. The influence had a little help, since extending 11 points higher overnight had been largely retraced. And the overnight high had held a test of 2375.00 resistance. Monday morning's bias environment was exited trending down 6 points back to 2366.00. Immediately reversing up probed fresh post-open highs at 2374.00. The final hour entry and proxy window each failed to exploit opportunities for launching a short-squeeze. The final hour dipped again to attack 2368.00 through the futures close. Overnight action's new info... Touching Monday's post-close 2368.25 low a couple of times eventually reacted up. Monday's late high was probed by 1 point to 2375.00 before Europe's opens. Retracing to 2371.50 has since hovered back under 2374.00. If, then... Monday afternoon's inability to exploit short-squeeze setups suggest the rally lacks sponsorship. This is in addition to Sunday night's temporary extension of its gap up, and now two consecutive nights of not reacting to Europe's opens. Closing above 2375.00 would be bullish, notwithstanding the need for confirmation. But probing above it intraday would be vulnerable to an afternoon reversal. Already trending down at the open would have little support below. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2377.00 would be likely to trigger the 2374.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2373.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] hey good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it's time for Tuesday's Morning Market or we have a basically either or or perhaps situation I just feel quickly one more look at the bigger picture what's bigger picture which is this downtrend ever since the beginning of March so basically coming into two months eight weeks or more and the downtrend trying to break higher try to break her from a higher low for my Harlow that stopped optimistically short of neutralizing attractions below so the context is at this is just a correction the context is that wherever this way again it is and it resolves down we're not looking at this point at lunch and a new Bo Market rally it's choices are either to hold a test of downtrending resistance touches I typically the last touch the last touch was back here of one two three Wednesdays ago well the f1c minutes that greeted when I tried to Trend higher rent way 375 and collapsed into what is the last most recent down leg of this decline sort of sort of cuz it didn't make a fresh aloe or if that were to give way than by proxy we look for a complete replacement car doesn't have any interruptions there and look for an interim complete race me to retest and probably not touch it touch it was tested by Sunday night temporarily getting anywhere maybe because I was today it still requires Wednesday yesterday afternoon through Sunday nights there is 5123 6061 would be the first opportunity for a and attraction and be launching a recovering but we'll deal with that if we do start saying the reversals alright looking higher unless we get some kind of first we need to get a break about 2375 but after that will give buyers rent for the dad if we don't see a break then we'll until we do or certainly going to be monitoring for a break I will be monitoring for any downside probes to gain traction or hold the test of support that gives us a better long entry okay other markets I'll see last week's Lowe's stopped optimistically short of filling the Gap in the prior week's close so this current bounce likely only temporary the pound if it can get a deeper pulled back in here then we have a higher degree of confidence that the rubber bands been stretched so I can snap but to resume its rally that's being delayed I mean as that's being delayed or avoided even if it's possible that down treading resistance brakes higher any degree of confidence in that needs to needs to be fulfilled before getting too far to the Apex too close to the apex of the triangle breakouts just don't have a high degree of reliability when they wait too long Looney still looking barish there is I'm going attraction below to a fresh glow under that triangle and then the Euro which of course just was outrageous yesterday Sunday nights that tested the 261 date of the Super Bowl correction that have been forming and tried to treat her Friday and didn't got their health their 10905 the Line in the Sand was not recovered through the clothes so probing hired today if it doesn't close about 1 or 9:05 then we'll definitively call that a near-term top and anticipate then closing back and it went to 860 to test lower for hives back at the last week's silver bounce back into Friday's range Freddy's range which went out testing 1790s pull back limit avoids being considered a break under 1790 despite closing under 1790 but it doesn't avoid the clock starting to check if that is in fact a narrow shave it needs to be exploited aggressively today so close you about 1790 and just get on its way to recovering 1805 1810 if not also 1818 to resume that rally any delay at this point and exploiting that near saved is not bullish got to get that done quickly or that opportunity lapses meanwhile gold even though it held a couple of try to cover basically bouncing from a couple of soft down Sunday night and then it's retest ahead of their attack ahead of USA's open nevertheless I must we get out of of 1280 really quickly today probably going to retest both of those and potentially down to 12 6162 before a better bottom conform long blonde nobody needed safety yesterday and doesn't look like they're needing safety today reversing back down the essays open at yesterday's will see nights open that is Sunday night so I just arranged sideways until yesterday's Cash station open until socks opened and then rallied so that low is being rejected it's not yet and break it's just really yesterday's open but it that is a big Line in the Sand itself and that is at 1:50 to 26 you need to hold 150 - 26 just to maintain the orbit around the one week old gaffer sorry closing at 1:55 13 that tends to be filled even though it was never confirmed by a second consecutive are closed it wasn't rejected him had a couple of inside days essentially so the opportunity to reject that hi to break free of its orbit already done this is this should be just skipping off its atmosphere and back back up to it Royal slash consequence this pull back all the way to what in the confirmation of the original bicycle that's a relevant level it's been tested a couple days big opportunity for that to hold as support not that it's going to nothing it has a greater chance of launching a remediate recovery but to start trying I was going to find resistance if it tries at 5055 5065 called 50 60 that's the big Line in the Sand that likely the first attempt to break higher bounces or reacts down from but then gets out that's the bicycle that's actually an attraction it would just be natural to come in here and testes Harlow's anyway so if the Ruidoso 4930 were to break lower Prima this point having held its just for a couple days trying to resume the decline at this point probably holds so the to buy the two one entry opportunities are after reacting down from 50 60 to find them the next rally Lane that should be the bigger performer or at this point if I initially there is a test of 4890 intraday it may be the most conservative one entry would be let a dip test 4890 and then recovered it close preferably positive that would be the clearest sign that this pull back has ended API is released after today's close and then tomorrow natural gas confirmed Fridays break out under this is June now what was 313 never 321 confirmed it yesterday with a second consecutive lower close so immediate follow through isn't necessary but some of that jewelry stores are closed ears alright ending the recording here as we sit at the 23 24 25 which is this morning's bias up signal still need to get out of a 2377 through the oven in 15 minutes about sylheti to have any greater degree of confidence that buy a simple trigger any questions and I will see you there before they open okay everyone good luck today

Pre-open surge extends post-open. Yesterday morning's 2372.00 high had been probed yesterday afternoon up to 2373.00.  That was probed overnight up to 2374.00. The next probe has extended up to 2387.00. That's the sort of behavior yesterday afternoon's restrained optimism avoided triggering. This morning's 2380.25 bias-up target was exceeded within minutes of the open. It was already exceeded by 7 points at 10:15. The renewed bias-up target at 2388.00 was already attacked to within 1 point. Its reaction down just touched 2384.00. Overbought RSIs at 2387.00 suggest its reaction down will be recovered. Back under 2382.50 would start to signal a deeper pullback may be underway. It would likely recover, since post-open action is a trend (higher highs and higher lows) which is usually retraced eventually. But under 2382.50 could temporarily retest yesterday's range.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2391.25 2388.00 ...would target  2396.75  2393.50 Bias-down: under  2384.50  2381.25 ...would target  2379.50  2376.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Tuesday afternoon was almost identical to Monday. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour's high, but dipping into the final hour. Greeting the proxy window at fresh highs, but not trending higher through it. A relevant difference being that Monday's proxy window already started dipping into the close, while Tuesday's closing dip was delayed. Almost identical. But identical enough? Similar setups that appear consecutively seldom resolve similarly. Tuesday's resolution was up, or at least up without delay. Will Wednesday's resolution be down? Up, only after a delay or detour? Regardless, gapping up would be less likely to extend, and likelier to reverse down, at least initially. Meanwhile, closing above 2375.00 has put into play new highs. Subject to confirmation from a second consecutive higher close Wednesday -- or, so long as a pullback holds 2360.00-2361.00 -- the really that began last Monday is targeting 2405.00 and probably also 2415.00. The context of price action prior to last Monday suggests that the high's retest will form a bigger top. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2391.25 2388.00 ...would target  2397.25  2394.00 Bias-down: under  2384.50  2381.25 ...would target  2378.50  2375.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.