Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 04-28-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

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Through the prior close...
Monday''s test and retest of the morning''s 2119.75 bias-up target was supported by its 2113.75 bias-up signal. The bias-up environment was then spent chipping away at that support. That prepped the afternoon for a drop to 2100.25, testing the ~2103.25 "lower prior highs" which had finally broken Thursday. Its reaction held 2104.25-2105.00 resistance ahead of AAPL''s post-close earnings.

Overnight action''s new info...
Retesting a breakout point is common before resuming the breakout. But it was the wrong timing window to expect it to hold. A failure from bouncing to 2104.25-2105.00 was likely. And despite AAPL''s pop on earnings, Monday''s 2100.25 low attracted price back down. Attacks on it stopped optimistically short -- which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective -- before inevitably breaking lower. This morning''s 2095.25 bias-down target was just touched, reacting up almost 3 points from there.

If, then...
Recall that 2095.25 is the upper-end of a 5-point support range, which had been instrumental during the prior two weeks. The timing of its recoveries helped us to maintain confidence in new highs throughout continued intraday and overnight dips/plunges. Now comes another test, under the guise of correcting a breakout, during an otherwise irrelevant timing window. Avoiding bias-down, let alone recovering positive territory through the open, could launch a powerful intraday rally. That would require overcoming a tendency for extending the reaction from Monday''s opening sentiment extreme into Wednesday morning. So, bias-down can still be renewed.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2093.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2095.25 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2103.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2100.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. 

Warning shot across the bow.

The pre-open bounce was likely to fail so long as 2104.25-2105.00 wasn''t recovered. Just touching 2104.25 was enough for a reaction down to 2099.00. Its 4-point reaction up failed to turn positive, which was enough for a 15-point plunge to 2088.25.

That was the room for noise under the 2090.00 renewed bias-down target, which was being recovered at 10:15. That''s not necessarily predictive, but it hasn''t prevented extending higher. And higher.

At this moment, a fresh high is probing 2104.25-2105.00. The bias environment lapsing at 11:30 is now within 10-15 minutes. Two bias-down targets and the bias-down signal may have been rejected going into the noon hour. Perhaps it is a little more pronounced, but nonetheless exactly the bullish setup I described this morning: holding the 2090.00-2095.25 band of support through relevant timing windows. 

If maintained, the market could be significantly higher this afternoon. By the same token, somehow not maintaining the rejection would then point much, much lower. Oversold RSIs are outstanding at the low.

Important note: Erroneous news of direct conflict between US and Iran may have triggered the extended drop. The news has since been retracted -- or, at least, corrected. Regardless, we now have a new category of news for which reactions to its coming headlines can present buying opportunities. Like the Ukraine-Russia invasion and Grexit, significant buyers are now pricing into their purchases the Iran-US conflict risk and the Straits of Hormuz shutdown risk. Neither being insignificant, but no longer surprises.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2115.25
2109.00
...would target 2120.50
2114.50
Bias-down: under 2104.25
2098.25
...would target 2099.75
2093.50
Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The rally extended to its target, nearly touching 1.1000. Back under 1.0950 would start to signal the bounce''s momentum was reversing down. Closing above 1.1020 would signal the bounce was not only a bounce, but potentially the start of a much larger rally.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Aided by news of direct US-Iran conflict, a pullback to 1194.50 was avoided by surging higher to test 1213.00. Back under 1208.50 would signal the pullback underway.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Early strength Tuesday surged to the upper-end of the 16.45-16.60 resistance band whose lower-end had held Monday. Now a pullback could be limited to testing the lower-end of the band, but any lower would still target 16.10.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
No overnight improvement above the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} resistance that was tested intraday found Tuesday''s open dipping back down to 162-00 support, and through it at least 4 points to trigger its sell signal, which attacked 161-08 intraday.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow ranging between 56.60-57.70 (which I under-reported here by $1 each yesterday) persisted through Tuesday. And this was in spite of news of a direct confrontation between US and Iran. Breakout potential above 57.70 is getting less likely.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming above 2.51 doesn''t offset the preference for retesting the 2.48 opening gap before trying to launch a durable recovery leg.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2119.00
2112.75
...would target 2123.75
2117.75
Bias-down: under 2110.25
2104.25
...would target 2104.25
2098.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.