Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 05-01-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== [Adobe upgraded last night, and I spot-checked the recording] Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... 2388.00 had held overnight and pre-open tests, and Friday's open quickly began sliding 9 points. The afternoon bias environment's attack on 2378.00 was only a couple of points under the morning bias environment's low. No capitulative leg formed, but neither was there an attempt to recover from the lows. Overnight action's new info... Initially dipping to fresh lows at 2377.00 stopped even more quickly. The balance of the night has trended up relentlessly, eventually testing this morning's 2385.75 bias-up signal. The overnight strength's motivation is presumably the US government funding deal that was reportedly reached near the open. If, then... A capitulative break lower was never required, but neither was it rejected. At least, it wasn't rejected through Friday's close. Overnight action is threatening to reject the capitulation setup, by proxy of gapping up above Friday's morning bias environment. One challenge to a recovery is extending higher post-open. But, first, two other challenges -- relentless one-way overnight trending is often reversed at the open, especially when that overnight action greets the new week. Gapping up and extending higher anyway would still face its ultimate challenge at 2388.00 resistance, whose recovery would target new highs. Resuming the decline by capitulation or otherwise would next target 2374.00 and 2371.50. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2388.00 would be likely also to trigger this morning's 2385.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2383.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning good morning and welcome it is Monday welcome to the money market to her at all so may welcome to may may one made a not a distress call there's Lauda as we talked about the Saturday review out of exchanges that are markets closed today and through the week throughout the week so it's difficult to get trending going which is good for trying to form a extreme if that extreme tries to form and fails and it's likely to fail because I'm likely to fail because of the trying to format Friday morning side doesn't itch or extending higher has to be maintained through the opening 15 minutes overnight 809 that we started looking at concessions of trending down addition to which days with one possible exception which is allowable of consecutive lower closes the up/down crash coming into view long but this first of all the couple days into Friday's open the couple days prior to Friday's open just want a cumulative backing and filling with a lower objective outstanding Friday's Gap download Provo didn't extend down and instead the balance of the session ended up to neutralize that attraction outstanding without closing but the prior hydra vs. forgiven 5312 at the very least 5121 22

Overnight rally retraces entirely. Two influences at this morning's open stepped in to change the sentiment 180 degrees. First, relentless one-way overnight trending often reverses at the open. And second, greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme.

Extended higher pre-open to 2387.50 and gapping up to the 2385.75 bias-up signal didn't ensure remaining above Friday morning's 2384.25 bias environment high. Post-open action has slid to 2380.75.

Another influence is now in-play. Having held a test of the bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the 2377.25 bias-down signal is in-play. This being a no-bias environment, the bias-down signal should define lower-end if tested this morning. Meanwhile, or later, it would likely be probed down to 2374.00 or 2371.50. The eventual downside has met an opposing influence. The post-open reaction down filled the gap(s) back to Friday's close, where RSIs diverged positively on its retest. Now, a bounce is testing the resistance of Friday morning's 2384.25 bias environment high.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2391.75 2388.00 ...would target  2397.50  2393.75 Bias-down: under  2387.00  2383.25 ...would target 2381.00  2377.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Filled gap holds post-open drop, launches its recovery. A funny thing happened on the way down to 2377.25. The first time. That was after the open's gap up had held a test of the 2385.75 bias-up signal, which put into play 2377.25. That dip filled the gap back to Friday's close down to 2380.75, double-bottomed while RSIs diverged positively, and bounced.

A lot. All the way back up to the 2387.50 overnight high. And the pattern that developed there was all but ensured to probe higher.

Probing higher still is all but ensured. Even after the morning's bounce up to 2387.50 collapsed down to 2381.25 in reaction to a headline. That was totally unexpected. Almost totally. After all, the ongoing headline risk is why even the likeliest resolution can only be "all but" ensured. Anyway, being a knee-jerk reaction to a headline, the second dip's weak-handed sponsorship invited buyers. An a bounce has recovered to attack the morning's 2387.50 highs. Probing higher is all but ensured. A test of this morning's 2377.25 bias-down signal has become "unfinished business below." Another break lower would likely extend down to the objective, no matter how weak-handed its sponsorship. Meanwhile, whatever enabled avoiding this morning's objective seems intent on producing a bigger detour up, first.

Was Monday's pattern any different than Thursday or Friday? Each held shallow probes under Wednesday's 2382.00 low. Each rejected early strength -- or, in Monday's case, early strength was only retraced. And each has yet to recover Wednesday's last-hour slide. But retracing Monday's early strength was recovered (twice). And the afternoon was in recovery mode, attacking 2391.00. The only threat of fresh lows was if the recovery mode were to fail. So, is last week's rally resuming? Gapping up above 2391.00 Tuesday would suggest so. Monday's late break lower rejected the probe above 2388.00. And the break closed under the morning's 2387.50 recovery highs. The door to fresh lows remains every bit open as each session following Thursday and Friday. Fresh lows remain likely to be recovered, and fresh lows overnight could be recovered before Tuesday's open. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2394.75 2391.00 ...would target  2400.00  2396.50 Bias-down: under  2386.25  2382.75 ...would target 2381.00  2377.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.