Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Rallying overnight to new recovery highs at 2965.00 had already reversed sharply to gap down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon's 2923.00 low. Extending down to 2892.00 during the first 15 minutes was maintained to trigger bias-down, which eventually extended to fresh lows at 2883.00 during the noon hour. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways attacking 2902.00 and 2910.00. Perhaps the paralyzed ranging was from anticipation for post-close earnings. An initially favorable reaction was reversed through the close to fresh lows at 2878.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The post-close earnings reaction continued into the Globex gap down at 2871.50, which quickly extended to 2853.00. Its reaction up to 2880.00 was retraced back down to 2856.00 by midnight. A shallower bounce resolved down through Europe's opens to sharply lower lows testing 2831.00 -- 134 points under the prior night's high. Now another bounce is attacking 2851.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Multiple bearish setups are greeting today's Friday Factors. They had begun triggering overnight, through the open, and at the close. And each had bearish implications for today (refer to yesterday's Market Wrap for a more elaborate description of each):

Second consecutive rejection of probing above 2930.00-2934.00. No P.M. traction. Globex-flip remained intact. Isolation influenced the afternoon. Session-long decline was fulfilled post-close. Sort of. Tue-Wed gap-to-gap was tested twice, eradicating its support.

The likeliest path to rejecting their bearish influence was to gap up above a relevant high. The overnight drop has put that setup out of reach. No pre-open econ reports are scheduled that might trigger a surge. Only earnings, and their back-half's paradigm shift from bullishness seems to have begun. Even Tuesday's isolated gap up, that was reversed back under prior highs through noon, has been fully retraced -- and its sellers have yet to be rewarded intraday. Nevertheless, a lot of selling pressure has been expended in a 24-hour window, similar to last week's trading low. So, especially for this being a Friday, the opening efforts could still signal a significant move in either direction. Maintaining or rejecting the preponderance of bearish influences should have a substantial effect. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2853.25 would likely also exceed the 2860.50 bias-down target to renew the 2881.00 bias-down signal.

Bearish setups rule the day. The morning, at least. Last-minute firming ahead of the 2850.25 open had created higher resistance at 2856.50-2858.00. Reacting down was likely if tested, and its test did reverse sharply to 2841.00. Surprising strength from ISM and Construction spending at the top of the hour triggered a surge back up to 2856.50. Its test reacted down to fresh post-open lows at 2838.50. There are no direct paths so far this morning, only wide swings. Bouncing again is now testing 2853.50. And reacting down is still likely, because the window for invalidating yesterday's bearish setups has lapsed. Fulfilling yesterday's session-long decline setup suggests it remains influential this morning. Yesterday morning's bearish Globex-flip influence was likely to influence this morning, too, since the afternoon had not reversed direction. There are no particular targets in-play, not nearby. The Isolation setup's reward is usually to retrace the leg whose overnight extreme was isolated -- that's last Tuesday's 2717.00 low. "Lower prior highs" along the way down coincide with last Friday's 2801.50 "unfinished business," but neither requires retest today. Back above 2858.00 would start to suggest sellers might be done, after all.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2841.00 2830.75 ...would target 2851.00 2841.75 Bias-down: under 2827.50 2818.00 ...would target 2811.00 2801.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still probing fresh lows. Fulfilling Thursday's bearish Globex-flip and session-long decline setup extended their influence into this morning. This morning trended down from its 2850.25-2858.00 open, attacking 2816.00 into the noon hour hour. These two setups are now moot. Flat-to-lower ranging through the noon hour tested 2813.00 and triggered this afternoon's 2818.00 bias-down signal. Its 2801.50 bias-down target is in-play. "Lower prior highs" there, and a multi-session consolidation, make its break difficult, other than probing down to 2798.00. The next objectives any lower would be 2777.00 and 2717.00. Friday morning trending can be exacerbated by pre-weekend anxiousness. It's one of the Friday Factors. Having already trended down sharply, the afternoon could easily range sideways, flat-to-higher, or even rally. Triggering bias-down helps to keep alive downside momentum, which was already confirmed by a fresh low since 1:20. But back above 2825.25 would start to signal a bigger bounce underway.

Trending down overnight gapped down Friday to 2850.25, ranging sideways up to 2858.00. Breaking lower attacked 2816.00 into the noon hour finally fulfilled residual bearish influence of Thursday's Globex-flip and session-long decline setups. Flat-to-lower ranging into the bias environment triggered bias-down under 2818.00. But only to test 2812.00 as ordinary Friday afternoon ranging developed. Its 2801.50 bias-down became "unfinished business." 2801.50 was also unfinished business from last Friday, along with 2777.00. Thursday's bearish Isolation setup is anticipating a return to the 2717.00 prior low. That session was an unconfirmed trend change, which had also reversed from recovery highs -- suddenly, steeply, and sharply. Friday's low retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the interim rally, which increases the potential for an interim bounce. Its likely limits, and levels for extending the decline, will be discussed in detail at this weekend's Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2842.00 2833.00 ...would target 2859.50 2850.50 Bias-down: under 2820.00 2811.00 ...would target 2799.75 2790.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.