Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 05-04-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the chaRTroom here (NOT xp-friendly)
One more day of Anymeeting CLICK HERE
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Gapping up Friday above Thursday afternoon''s 2090.00 high essentially marginalized sellers for the day. Two tests of the 2095.25 renewed bias-up target were reacted down to test and retest 2088.00. But the rally resumed into the afternoon, extending to 2102.50. Only one timing window did not probe above its prior timing window, like a session-long decline.

Overnight action''s new info...
Looking at the market''s chart, you might think Greek headlines are promising, or that there aren''t any at all. Or the same for China. Price action was stoic, ranging narrowly between 2099.00-2102.00. Actually, their news isn''t by any means disastrous, but definitely on the negative side. Apparently, price just wanted to probe higher.A blip-down to 2098.00 at Europe''s opens was soon reversed through the range''s upper-end, to fresh highs now attacking 2108.00.

If, then...
2108.00 is retesting Wednesday''s highs. That was the inside day, which had gapped down into Tuesday morning''s range, which was that steep, deep temporary sell-off. Recovering to Wednesday''s highs is certainly not bearish, but its price still represents near-term resistance. A lot of energy is being expended just to test it. Meanwhile, gapping up is by definition extreme sentiment, and greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme (recall last Monday''s gap up). This morning''s bias-up target is still a couple of points higher, which is near enough to contribute to resistance. Resistance may yet hold and reverse the morning''s momentum back down. But extending higher just a little more could make the difference for extending much higher.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2105.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2111.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2109.50 bias-up target, renewing the bias-up signal. Exiting the open back under 2099.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Gap up extends, entrenching new highs.

The open''s momentary blip-down touched 2105.50 and reacted up sharply to probe the overnight high. This morning''s 2109.50 bias-up target was exceeded above 2111.00 through 9:45. That made the bias-up target likely to be exceeded through 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal.

At 10:15, the 2114.75 renewed bias-up target was being tested already. That has since held, while price ranges flat-to-lower. Bias-up was not doubly renewed.

Regardless of this morning''s resolution, new highs are now likely. This morning''s high touched pivotal highs, i.e. the highs prior to last Monday''s actual high. Recovering that much all but requires eventually probing a fresh high.

Back above 2114.75 would start to signal the rally has resumed, next targeting a retest of last Monday''s 2119.75 high by at least 1 point. Back under 2112.25 would start to signal a deeper dip underway, targeting a test of 2109.50.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2121.00
2114.75
...would target 2127.00
2120.75
Bias-down: under 2110.50
2104.25
...would target 2104.25
2098.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The confirmed breakout rested on its laurels for another day Monday, but didn''t really trap shorts by dipping deeply. Its shallow gap down didn''t extend, and the session ranged narrowly sideways, Further delaying the rally would be suspicious.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Monday to test 1187.00 resistance from testing the 1170.00-1174.00 target doesn''t begin a recovery any more credibly than did the prior gap up from attacking 1170.00-1174.00 to within a dime. But testing either 1187.00 or 1194.50 should contain the bounce and resume the decline..

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday''s gap up tested the upper-end of 16.50-16.65 resistance, and later probed above it. But the resistance should react back down to 16.15 before a durable rally leg can begin.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday was the fourth day of the four-day sequence, in which two consecutive breakouts would not be confirmed. That meant not closing negative. It''s not a required setup, just likely -- likely enough to earn confidence buying into support. Testing 156-24 support down to 156-20 firmed, but didn''t react up enough to avoid closing negative. So, having confirmed Friday''s breakout, an eventual third lower close is now required, and now just likely -- presumably at the outstanding 156-08 target, and potentially lower to 154-02.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initial strength Monday was quickly retraced and reversed down to the 58.65 pullback limit. That held, keeping alive the upward momentum of last week''s confirmed breakout, targeting 61.75 and potentially also 62.45.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite easily having room to correct down to 2.67, Monday''s 2.74 low could hardly wait to recover back up to and through Friday''s 2.80 high. That impatience doesn''t prevent extending higher, but closing above 2.84 or back under 2.73 would be likelier to extend in.that direction.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2116.75
2110.75
...would target 2122.50
2116.50
Bias-down: under 2109.50
2103.50
...would target 2104.00
2098.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.