Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday duplicated Wednesday's strong intraday rally. Both gapped up, extended sharply higher into their afternoon bias environments, and then ranged sideways through the close around their next higher objectives. Thursday's pre-open dip had touched Wednesday's 2696.75 objective as support before rallying to its 2721.50 objective, which was tested up to 2725.00. Reacting down to 2713.00 was recovered up to 2721.50 through the cash session close. No "unfinished business above" was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Globex was greeted back down at 2716.00 which had been the target of Thursday's last reaction down. A gradual recovery to 2723.00 was suddenly retraced to 2716.50 before Europe's opens (defensive posturing?) but the dip was soon recovered. And now the recovery has extended to probe yesterday's highs attacking 2627.00. If, then... The similarities between Wednesday and Thursday's consecutive rallies don't dictate Friday's pattern, but they do narrow down its possibilities. Thursday afternoon's pattern does have a likely resolution, which is to gap up (i.e. to already extend the rally overnight) or at least to trend up into the open. Yesterday's highs are finally being probed, or initially being probed -- it's still early. Another gap up? The Wednesday-Thursday similarities suggest this setup won't extend higher, so we would expect it to reverse down. Opening flat or backing-and-filling could still resolve up, but would at least be vulnerable to reversing down. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2725.00 would be likely to trigger the 2722.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2718.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour.

Gap up and new highs are holding up. The 2726.75 overnight high had pulled back before the open. It was similar to the earlier defensive posturing ahead of Europe's opens. Neither was deep enough to reverse down, so my pre-open comments in the chaRTroom reiterated expectations for opening strength.

The open did gap up, albeit under yesterday's high. Post-open did surge to probe yesterday's high. And after consolidating back down to the 2722.75 bias-up signal, higher highs fulfilled the 2730.00 bias-up target up to 2731.25.

Which held, triggering bias-up, bias-up target met. The window's lower-end should be defined by its 2722.75 bias-up signal if tested. If probed before that window lapses, then it should be retraced. Perhaps for longer, as this is a Friday when the morning bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour, although that's not required. Meanwhile, this is still a bias-up environment, regardless of having met its target. But today is unlikely to duplicate the prior two sessions' strong intraday rallies. That's also not required, and exiting the bias environment above its 2730.00 bias-up target would suggest. Otherwise, a flat-to-lower afternoon would be likely.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2731.50 2730.50 ...would target  2738.00  2737.00 Bias-down: under  2722.50 2721.50 ...would target  2713.00 2712.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning rally officially rejected. A fresh high above the 2730.00 bias-up target's initial test held its 2732.25 resistance. Reversing down from there through the bias environment exit tested 2724.00. Fresh session lows during the noon hour at 2719.25 were recovered up to 2724.50 before entering the bias environment. Rallying today is still unlikely, so the most bullish scenario may be flat-to-higher. Flat-to-higher may also be the likely scenario, bullish or bearish. Trending into negative territory after maintaining positive territory is difficult enough. More so after fresh session lows already recovered one probe. More so after triggering no-bias. And more so being a Friday afternoon, which is difficult to attract new sponsorship. Probing fresh lows during the no-bias environment would still be credible for down to 2716.00-2718.00, but require being retraced. Flat-to-higher up to 2728.50 or 2730.50 would be likelier if still not probing negative territory when the bias environment is lapsing.

Friday's gap up and probe of fresh highs was rejected. Not immediately, and not without actually trending up to fulfill the morning's 2730.00 bias-up target up to 2732.50. But the afternoon bias environment dipped 2-4 points into negative territory and contained the session low at 2716.75. Fulfilling the bias-up target before being fully retraced means that much more buying pressure was satisfied first, and that no "unfinished business above" was left outstanding. So, the question is whether only briefly probing negative territory is an appropriate consequence. If not, then reacting down further is likely -- whether aggressively, or simply backing-and-filling. And that's assuming the rally intends to extend. Dipping further could be the beginning of the trend reversing down. Avoiding any dip to immediately extend higher could be another version of Friday morning's temporary rally, but with a more permanent reversal down. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. I'LL SEND LINKS IN THE MORNING TO THE 9:30 ET SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2734.25  2733.00 ...would target  2740.50 2739.25 Bias-down: under  2722.50  2721.25 ...would target  2716.25  2715.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.