Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Backing-and-filling was likely Friday morning, which began with a pre-open drop to 2811.00. Retesting it by 6 ticks during Friday's open reacted up to touch Thursday's 2847.00 cash session close. Exiting the open under the 2841.00 earlier Globex low had triggered a bearish Globex-flip, sending the morning bias environment back down to 2814.50. Rallying through the afternoon bias environment attacked 2856.00, just 2 points above Thursday's last-minute high. The final 60-90 minutes held 2840.00 as support while ranging sideways into an essentially flat close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Fed Chair Powell made some historically dovish* comments on the 60 Minutes interview show as Globex was opening. (*Newer market participants might not be aware there was a species on the FOMC known as a "hawk." Good times.) Thursday night and Friday's 2860.00-2864.00 highs were probed during Sunday night's first hour, and extended up to 2885.00 by midnight. A pullback to 2874.00 was already recovering into Europe's opens, on the way up to 2897.00. Now its reaction is testing 2885.00 as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) A bearish WedEX already had failed to fully form when Friday afternoon did not trend down. That doesn't preclude expiration's morning after from exacerbating a morning slide anyway. Not after forming a Relentless Overnight Trending setup by rallying throughout Globex. Especially not after beginning the overnight from the equilibrium of Friday's flat close. And even more so if already testing "higher prior lows" at 2902.50-2905.25. Trending up through the open, or down, would reflect either intraday reinforcements to the overnight buyers, or else more counter-trend sponsorship being interestedto exploit the sudden repricing from Friday's close. Powell is scheduled to speak tomorrow morning, and I describe the traditional Fed Chair two-step during this morning's Market Tour recording. Today's WHO meeting might take the focus from Powell. The US and allies intend to confront China and demand an investigation into the WHO-han virus, which could be a bearish catalyst. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2888.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2879.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2877.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Attracting reinforcements. I had described Relentless Overnight Trending during the Market Tour. Already up 26 points from Friday's cash session close to 2897.00, its reaction was testing earlier "lower prior highs" at 2885.00 as support. Then came Modenra's news. Still my favorite among the virus treatment/vaccine candidates, MRNA surged from the 60's to the 90's. The market ultimately attacked 2934.00 pre-open. Relentless Overnight Trending tends either to attract reinforcements or counter-trend sponsorship. Trending up through the open suggests the former, at least exiting the open at 9:45 above overnight highs to form a position of strength. Having pierced the pre-9:45 by only 2 ticks just minutes later up to 2938.50, higher highs would help confidence in the bias environment still extending higher. A pullback with room down to 2925.25 is now trying to recover back above 2931.00. Back under 2920.75 could be too deep for the open's position of strength to rescue.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2960.00 2955.00 ...would target 2971.00 2966.00 Bias-down: under 2938.00 2933.00 ...would target 2925.75 2920.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Gap-and-go'd. Eventually resuming the overnight was likely, and it extended to attack 2953.00 at the morning's high. Its pullback into the noon hour's 2942.00 lows still had room below without actually reversing the trend down. But the noon hour exit rallied back up to fresh highs at 2955.00. That's this afternoon's bias-up signal. It's too late to trigger, invoke the grace period, or invalidate the no-bias that triggered cleanly. The balance of the bias environment could range sideways or gravitate back down to its 2933.00 bias-down signal's support. One or the other is likely this afternoon, which would complete the Gap-and-go setup that started forming this morning. Only hovering around the earlier momentum peak would earn its buyers the reward of extending higher Tuesday or Wednesday, at least intraday. Tuesday could be a pullback day, no matter how deeply, while still being likely to recover. Afternoon probes of higher highs are likely to fail, perhaps like the touch off this afternoon's bias-up signal just did. Trending up anyway would fail to trigger the Gap-and-go setup.

Closing around unchanged Friday at 2859.00 was extra vulnerable to any catalyst triggering a reaction in either direction. Two big catalysts came before Monday's open. First, Sunday evening's 60 Minutes interview with Fed Chair Powell triggered a rally up to 2897.00. Then MRNA's vaccine news triggered a pre-open surge up to 2934.00. The Relentless Overnight Trending setup was likely to extend higher through the morning if not rejected through the open. The open's higher highs established a position of strength that soon extended the rally to attack 2953.00. Hovering around the morning's high suddenly surged at the final half-hour to attack 2965.00, and just as suddenly collapsed back down to the noon hour's 2942.50 low. No traction was gained. The late surge upset a Gap-and-go setup that had been forming. It required only hovering around the morning's high. The brevity and rejection of the late surge might not invalidate the setup's ultimate resolution, but it does prevent me from relying on it. Completing the Gap-and-go's hovering would have rewarded the afternoon's restrained optimism with another session's higher close -- usually after an interim pullback. Instead, extending higher Tuesday won't be any likelier to close higher, and a pullback Tuesday won't be required to recover. Monday's last-minute collapse met its 2943.00 target. The equilibrium is similar to Friday's close, along with Tuesday's vulnerability to trending in either direction. Monday's rally ignored the WHO conference's anti-China motions, but Tuesday will likely focus on Fed Chair Powell's 10:00 ET remarks. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2962.50 2957.50 ...would target 2979.00 2974.00 Bias-down: under 2938.00 2933.00 ...would target 2925.75 2920.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.