Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 06-21-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday's first half-hour was down 9 points from Monday's 2450.25 cash session close. The open's low was probed during the noon hour down to 2437.25, and recovered before the noon hour's end, isolating the fresh session low. The swing never reversed above a prior high to signal new sponsorship for a recovery. Retracing the noon hour low broke lower during the last half-hour down to 2434.00. Last Wednesday's 2435.50 close was still being tested at the close. Overnight action's new info... Hovering narrowly above 2435.50 broke 3 points lower at Asia's opens. Ranging between 2432.50-2435.50 broke lower almost 3 points at Europe's opens to 2428.75. Now a couple of bigger bounces are probing back into the 2432.50-2435.50 range -- almost unchanged, but not reversed. If, then... Will Pavlov's dogs bark this morning? Filling the gap yesterday to last Wednesday's close could have been bullish, had buyers rejected it by bouncing into the close. It's similar to yesterday's isolated noon hour probe, which also didn't attract new buyers back above a prior high. In the absence of a reversal, the prevailing trend has extended down overnight. Now support at the gap back to Friday's close is being tested, another spot that buyers could reject. But will they get even the nominal interest like yesterday, or have they been conditioned to stay away altogether? If the open hasn't established a reversal setup -- or if an interim bounce were to hold resistance -- then this morning could trend down substantially. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2427.25 would be unlikely to recover the 2428.50 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2433.00 would likely at least to trigger the 2434.50 bias-down signal. Phonetic dictation... hey good morning and welcome it is Wednesday at Sanford Wednesdays morning market tour quickly hey we have a extended Trend overnight so call yesterday yesterday was straight down or at least trended down that's following the Gap up on Monday that extended through the open he did sway higher and into the clothes left outstanding unfinished business above at the bias of Target but by yesterday's open had retraced we acted down Cassius and close actually had been 24 5025 so relevant or relative to that not a minor Gap Town actually wasn't even a Gap Town versus Monday's Cashing close I'm sorry teachers close but the morning slid then actually the first half-hour contained all the mornings Slide the noon-hour isolated a probe under the morning slow but never recovered any prior High that would have been vacated that new buyers had arrived retraced back down to the noon hour is low and just in the last half-hour yesterday probed lower and closed lower closed under the more the noon hour low that actually fill the Gap back to last Wednesday's close last Wednesday's overnight Thursday night and Friday is open very most but this overnight Depp can't be rejected yet this overnight dip can't be rejected back Above This Pryor High this Pryor High this right these are all overnight highs overnight highs even if we're trying to reject even if the Mark is trying to reject an overnight low it's still can only do that by recovering an intraday High so this big bounce here off the overnight low is expending valuable buying pressure it's not getting anything in return not yet if the open extends our pre open were to expend even more valuable buying pressure at the very least the only credible open would be back above that late post close bounce up to 38 2438 it's another three points it has to be expended we're already up Five Points 6 points off they overnight low that's a lot of pressure to expand and then finally perhaps to start gaining traction for the effort so more likely What's Happening Here Pavlov's dogs are being conditioned or have been conditioned I should say fresh low well that's testing support of the bias down Target of the Gap at cetera unfortunately it's premature in the bounce and we can give out if there's a little bit of a dip that attracted Barnes that was attractive to buyers but that's pretty much our Line in the Sand and if the markets going to extend down at this decline is going to persist so right now basically right as basically testing 35 or has 35 35 25 if I can recover 38 will give it a better for the doubt to what would have been a Buy Signal yesterday afternoon it wasn't even touch but if 35 isn't recovered the overnight low 2975 if that's attractive but that's doing that's testing Fridays range Monday mornings running correction that if this lower quadrant didn't hold or the Post open origin of that Serge there's potential back to the origin of this leg that's at least 26 and change if not 25 alright so lot of room for follow through to the downside but not necessarily to fall off a cliff same thing with the outside lot of room for follow through the upside but not necessarily to resume the rally to new highs so the open is going to be critical and retest to the low is the likeliest the overnight low is the likeliest scenario right now looking at other markets the Euro so fluctuating in this rain a lot of energy since Monday is Gabba had only extended back down sew a bounce to 112 2325 that breaks back near 112 112 112 o405 that's what would resume the decline closing above 1:12 2325 I'm not confident that returns to 112 55 but it would be premature to expect that to them launch the rally Looney still waiting on that one more higher close in the pound is four been pretty volatile overnight fresh level is after yesterday fill that Gap that was our expectation to fill that Gap and for the detour to also probe the gaps low the low the structure that contains the gap that was done yesterday stop and maybe a little optimistic Lee short of actually probing the low that was done overnight pretty aggressively and that trying to react up this is the light of the same here 12730 12730 is the Line in the Sand for whether this drop back to the prior low he has now correcting before extending down even deeper or whether back above 120 7:30 a recovery a double bottom basically is in place and finally The Odyssey which is now I'm touched this lower Pryor High now becomes pretty critical this is a cell signal if triggered under basically 7555 no requirement to fill that Gap back to the high silver bouncing bouncing they're both confirmed and breakouts and they both have calculable targets that are lower 1630 - 1625 n silver 12 35 1235 on gold Longmont flat right now it's been a little higher just the retest Wednesday's High after it corrected and that correction didn't resume the reaction down last Wednesday's High pretty much requires now extending up to one 5624 crude oil and this is August by the way crude oil which gap down didn't extend down yesterday but Gap town anyway just not a bottom i any questions please t didn't greet yesterday supposed to say p i report from the position of strength it's not greeting this morning CIA report from a position of strength if there's a balance I need your reaction up it's got room to 4430 4490 but it still resolves down MN natural gas is really nothing natural gas can do today to greet tomorrow CIA report from a position of strength maybe if anything because higher prayer Lowe's if you have to be touched From Below bounce test Lowe's here or test the lower range here and then closed higher that's the one possible still convoluted path but the one possible bullish template I had of the eia report.

No prior high recovered, but a low is holding. Probing under yesterday morning's low had been contained to within the noon hour. That isolation setup can be very bullish, if extended to recover a prior high. But that didn't happen. Yesterday's last drop filled the gap back down to last Wednesday's close. That setup can also be very bullish, also if extended to recover a prior high. That didn't happen, either. Now last night's drop has been recovered back above yesterday's 2434.00 late low. That's another isolation setup. It can be very bullish, if extended to recover a prior high.The nearest prior high had followed into the futures close up to 2438.00, but it wasn't recovered. Not for lack of trying -- 2438.00 was being tested at the open. Is "third time a charm" for the isolation setup, or have the prior two setups conditioned Pavlov's dogs to ignore this one, too? The 2434.50 bias-down signal did hold as support to trigger no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2440.75 bias-up signal. That was quite awhile ago. A blip-up to 2438.00 but not through it could still recover to fulfill the bias parameter. Otherwise, the rubber band will need to be stretched a little tighter, down to 2433.00.

Recovery attempt is cut short. Consolidating at the 2434.50 bias-down signal tried trending up without first blipping-down to trap shorts. Perhaps it could have extended higher, we'll never know. Moments after neutralizing the 2440.75 objective to within 3 ticks, price reversed down sharply. The character of the reversal down suggests that it is not necessarily organic, in reaction to having satisfied the upside attraction. Rather, the catalyst seems to be artificial or external (possibly this). The reversal down unnaturally sliced through the opening range's "lower prior highs," ignoring any obligatory bounce on the way down to 2430.50. Legs caused by an artificial catalyst are more easily absorbed. Its sponsorship is a weak-handed reaction to news. Meanwhile, breaking under the 2434.50 bias-down signal during the no-bias environment is "no-bias trending" that requires being retraced at some entirely. That much is being done now, at least up to 2436.00. Neither of which prevents extending down further or substantially. The overnight probe under yesterday's lows is no longer isolated to the overnight. This is a problem for the recovery attempt. Entering this afternoon's bias environment above 2440.00 would suggest that problem is gone.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2440.75 2438.25 ...would target  2445.75  2443.50 Bias-down: under  2435.25  2433.00 ...would target 2431.00  2428.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Attracted back down to the lows. The market doesn't seem very comfortable rallying. That's neither new nor surprising. This has been the market's pattern at highs, and also the anticipation of its continued response to highs. Monday was a high, neutralizing the last outstanding structural requirement -- a new trend high close. Direction reversed quickly. This morning's attempt to extend the overnight recovery wasn't a new high. But it met the same discomfort that opened the window below. And now the afternoon's bias-down has triggered under 2433.00. This morning's 2430.50 low is being retested. This afternoon's 2428.50 bias-down target is in-play. It could be probed down to 2425.00 and still be in the context of only a pullback. Anything deeper would be recoverable, but with increasing difficulty. Back above 2436.25

Did Wednesday's buyers succeed where Tuesday's buyers had failed? Tuesday's late low filled the gap down to last Wednesday's 2435.25 close. It was tested late and not rejected. Wednesday filled the gap back down to Friday's 2430.50 close. It was done overnight, late-morning, and again in the afternoon. That's much more time to have broken lower, if that were the market's intent. Right? One element still missing is the actual rejection. Buyers must produce a close back above a prior high to indicate that new sponsorship has arrived. Any shallower recovery attempt has succeeded only to chip away at support. Thursday's buyers could succeed where Wednesday's buyers failed. Gapping up above Wednesday morning's 2440.00 high could serve by proxy as if sponsorship had arrived already Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, the pattern is vulnerable to already greeting the open probing fresh lows. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2440.00  2437.50 ...would target  2445.00 2442.75 Bias-down: under  2431.25 2429.00 ...would target 2427.00  2424.50 Signal status:NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.