Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 06-29-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's open gapped up above Tuesday afternoon's 2427.50 high. Probing under Tuesday's lows down to 2413.50 was isolated to the overnight. The combination produced a session-long rally to 2440.50 in which every timing window probed a prior high except for the last. The close exceeded 2435.50 higher prior lows and was still testing its 2438.00 room for noise. Overnight action's new info... Although Wednesday's last timing window had ranged sideways, the rally resumed immediately at the Globex open. And then it immediately stopped. First surging 6-1/2 points up to 2444.50, a narrow 2-point range developed until Europe's opens triggered a blip-up. Its reaction down extended to 2439.00 where a brief consolidation has resolved up sharply to test 2443.00. If, then... Session-long rallies are likely to extend higher the following morning. Exceptions require either gapping down, or else already probing higher highs overnight. Last night fulfilled the latter condition of already probing higher highs. But that can be repeated intraday so long as momentum hasn't reversed down at the open. The dip to 2439.00 was a close-call, and its retest would likely fail -- not necessarily for the session, but to shift sentiment this morning down to 2431.50. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2445.00 would be likely to trigger the 2443.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2440.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Phonetic dictation... good morning welcome it is Thursday's time for Thursday's morning market tour and don't forget yesterday was a pretty impressive day gapped up get them none of the entirety of the bias environment Prep students by his environment range but above least structurally a last relative High extended eventually through that crap advice environment I threw that prior mornings High to not an axillary prior session Mondays by Zimmerman high but through this congestion which doesn't really stand alone never lasts it has a singular representation of 3550 it's higher priorities and other words it's all so essentially the Lowe's Monday was Friday's Cat session close made it through all that closed above all that so long as the open isn't basically gapping down under it today yesterday's what turned out to be a session on rally will extend higher this morning actually the opportunity to close under 30 back under 3550 was yesterday so today by proxy the open would need to reject 3150 back under 3150 10 day kind of selling pressure coming in there could have been indicated just buy closing under 35 yesterday and this last night after the last time until yesterday range sideways every time ago but one had prior timing Windows High that's a characteristic of a long really was not until but it did confirm a break out yesterday the Europe extending higher actually pretty significantly higher relevantly higher testing for 11470 which is the next higher objective it has a confirmed break out as well looking for a third of ventral third I are close silver and gold both had bounced into some bigger resistance points retracement points even if we knew the hundred percent degree of certainty they were going to extend higher they're actually testing some resistance that needs or as deserving of a reaction down correction if gold were the closer to 1240 650 it probably isn't just a correction probably is not just a correction Long Pond continuing this huge sell off it had tested the minimum objective of the second consecutive down yesterday had the decline extended yesterday its minimum objective was 150 for 16 the leg has potential to test 153 28th so while yesterday's overnight leg and tested 154 16 that was never tested intraday wasn't rejected we didn't expect momentum to reverse up and now the decline is resumed or extended to 15320 pretty big drop overnight over point so point of corner so this area is being tested now closing back above 150 for 16 would indicate that the bottom was in or at least that otherwise not so much firmer overnight as testing yesterday's highs but it it's a confirm break out and eventual third higher clothes at least a third hour of clothes is required at some point that doesn't mean it has to be today and doesn't protect against an immediate reaction down just tells us that the reaction down or recover but it does tell us at today's report is being created from a position of strength I get down to the news and then reaction but we just .

A lot of selling pressure expended, satisfied. Yesterday's open gapped up to 2430.00 and dipped briefly down to 2425.50 before resuming its intraday rally to 2440.50. That is now being retested down to 2426.00, while bobbling up to 2430.50. Will this area launch another rally? The overnight dip down to 2439.00 was a close-call that avoided reversing into negative territory. But there was no bullish reason for its retest after bouncing. And its bounce bounced a lot, attacking the 2445.00 overnight high. Opening at 2440.00 quickly slid to test the 2431.50 likely objective. Triggering the 2434.50 bias-down signal put into play its 2428.00 target. And a pattern formed along the way with potential to 2426.25. All were met. And the target was only being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down. A retest of 2426.25 is reacting up through 2431.50 as resistance. Regardless of being probed, it should define the morning's lower-end. A retest of last night's highs remains possible before the weekend. Back under 2428.00 would now suggest otherwise, potentially clearing the way to and through yesterday's 2413.50 overnight lows.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2423.75 2421.00 ...would target  2428.00 2425.25 Bias-down: under  2418.25 2415.50 ...would target  2412.50 2409.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Getting that capitulative feeling. 2431.50 did not define this morning's low. It defined the opening hour's low. that was after having extended yesterday's rally overnight up to 2445.00 (ineffectual optimism). But it 2431.50 soon gave way to retest yesterday's 2413.50 pre-open low. Attacking it to within 1 tick held through the noon hour (ineffectual optimism). The noon hour's exit was already resolving down, and it extended to 2402.25 (pessimism).

Yesterday's pre-open litany of all recent instances of ineffectual optimism didn't prevent the big intraday rally. But it seems to have undermined the rally from extending. And encouraged it back down.

The 2409.75 bias-down target was overlapped at 1:20. It immediately extended down anyway, to 2402.25. And then it immediately recovered. That feels a lot like capitulation. And if the decline has run out of sellers, then a recovery won't be far behind. But we don't know that the decline is done. Back under 2403.00 would target fresh lows at 2399.00 and 2393.00. If the capitulation holds, or holds a retest, then the market would likely bounce into and out of the weekend.

Overnight action had extended Wednesday's session-long rally pattern up to 2445.00. Not maintaining the overnight extension above Wednesday's 2440.50 highs was the only way to avoid probing higher post-open. And it was the only path for the morning to trend down without gapping up 2431.50. And while 2431.50 was likely to define the pullback low, not holding it targeted fresh lows under 2413.50. They got to 2402.25. 2402.25 was tested within minutes of reaching the afternoon's 2409.75 bias-down target. Its test was fully retraced within minutes, too. That smelled of capitulation, and its reaction up extended up to 2422.50. The "V" bottom left outstanding at the low tends to be retested. But it would likely hold if tested AFTER Friday's open, being the 5-day holiday weekend. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2428.00 2425.25 ...would target  2435.00  2432.25 Bias-down: under  2417.50  2414.75 ...would target 2411.00  2408.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.