Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 07-07-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Sunday night''s plunge had been retraced considerably before the open. Its reaction down held the 2050.50 bias-down target and recovered the 2058.25 bias-down signal, putting into play tests of both bias-up parameters. The 2066.00 bias-up signal was probed to within 2 points of the 2072.25 bias-up target. Reacting down into the noon hour extended back to within 1 tick of 2050.50 at the bias environment''s low. A reversal pattern there was recovered to 2061.25 into the close.

Overnight action''s new info...
The final hour''s rally extended to 2065.00 by the futures close, and then to 2072.75 through the Globex open. Dipping to 2067.00 was recovered and extended higher to 2078.00 -- within 1 point of Thursday''s reaction to the Employment Situation report. Its 9-point reaction down to 2068.00 is now 2 points under yesterday morning''s high.

If, then...
Yesterday''s buyers didn''t gain traction for their effort. In fact, sellers nearly gained traction, exiting the bias environment under the noon hour''s low. But neither the final hour''s entry nor the 3:10-3:20 window extended down. The final hour''s rally expended buying pressure without gaining traction for the effort. Not reversing down this morning all but requires gapping up above yesterday''s high and extending aggressively with little delay. The 2072.25 unfinished business above might have enabled that, but its attraction is now neutralized. Reacting down from within 1 point of touching Thursday''s Employment report reaction might reflect some degree of pessimism, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. But that influence should be obvious soon after the open if it''s valid.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2070.25 would be likely to trigger the 2067.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2066.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Pre-open slide becomes post-open plunge.

We knew that yesterday afternoon''s buyers had failed to gain traction. Bouncing and rallying overnight would likely be retraced either to unchanged around 2062.00, or to 2053.25 within the structure at yesterday''s low.

Small thinking. The opening 15 minutes tested 2055.00. A shallow consolidation there had an opportunity to reverse up, but simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs inhibited a recovery while the low required a retest.

Then 2053.25 was tested. By a leg that extended to 2046.25. Renewing the bias-down signal under its 2050.50 target essentially put into play 2040.25.

Still small thinking. Selling resumed and accelerated again into 2037.25. RSIs were again simultaneously oversold. A bounce from there just touched 2046.00. Retesting the low could form a durable bottom if already in recovery mode at 11:30, or if the retest were delayed until then.

Otherwise, exiting the bias environment under 2040.25. would start to suggest a much more substantial decline underway.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2062.25
2053.75
...would target 2067.50
2059.25
Bias-down: under 2051.00
2042.75
...would target 2045.50
2037.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having held the 1.1120 bounce limit after Monday''s bounce originated optimistically short of actually touching the prior Sunday''s low, lower lows Tuesday filled the month-old gap at 1.0930. The drop''s momentum remains intact so long as bounces now hold 1.1000 as resistance.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday''s plunge fulfilled the retest of 1158.50 down to 1146.80. Consolidating under 1158.50 qualified as a breakout. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would confirm at least a third eventual lower close coming. Closing above 1163.00 would signal that a bottom is forming, if not already reversing up.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Spiking down more than $1 Tuesday to 14.62 doesn''t seem to qualify as "slow-playing" its decline. But this is the stage where a bottom can form by re-syncing with Gold. Avoiding a second consecutive lower confirming close Wednesday would be the first step.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The quality of last week''s bottom hasn''t improved simply because of the rally that it launched. Extending higher even during Monday night''s stock index rally suggests that more than a flight-to-safety is driving price higher. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday confirms Monday''s breakout and requires an eventual third higher close. That said, Tuesday''s price action formed a potential Island that would be triggered by gapping open Wednesday back under 151-28 and leaving the eventual recovery for another week.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down deeper through Tuesday morning tested relevant support at 50.40-50.55. The next relevant support had been 51.90-52.05, which a reaction up was overlapping. This should be the low of what is only a correction, so long as a bounce recovers 52.90-53.00. Otherwise, extending down would next target new lows at 48.25.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday''s break back to 2.77 extended lower overnight somewhat similarly to Friday''s temporary probe above 2.83. Fresh lows intraday under 2.69 were retraced enough that also recovering 2.77 Wednesday could form a durable bottom. There is otherwise no compelling pattern currently.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2085.25
2077.00
...would target 2091.75
2083.50
Bias-down: under 2076.25
2068.00
...would target 2070.75
2062.50
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.