Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 07-21-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's session was significant, fulfilling several items of "unfinished business above" at 2163.00, 2163.75, and 2168.00. The overnight rally had neutralized the first two. A post-open dip to 2158.50 preceded recovering to neutralize the last objective. It was tested up to 2169.75, which was touched several times. The afternoon's sideways action down to 2166.50 gained no traction. Overnight action's new info... Wednesday afternoon's sideways ranging persisted through Europe's opens, which barely pierced Wednesday's high. A dip has tested and retested 2163.00. A bounce is now testing Wednesday afternoon's 2166.50 lower-end as resistance, with the ECB policy statement just minutes away. If, then... A pullback had room down to 2163.00 before suggesting a bigger detour is underway. So, holding the overnight low is important to this morning's price action. Wednesday's 2169.75 high can still be probed up to 2171.25 and 2175.50, which is likely so long as bias-down doesn't trigger. Regardless, today's close may or may not confirm Wednesday's breakout, which could create a very predictable intraday pattern Friday.. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2172.50 would be likely to trigger the 2171.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2166.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2163.00 would be likely to trigger the 2164.25 bias-down signal.

Choppy open is threatening to range narrowly.. Tuesday's gap down resolved by not resolving, and just chopping around until the final minutes. Tiday's gap down is shallower, but it's under yesterday afternoon's lows, and it hasn't yet resolved. Today's resolution might not end very far from its open. But an intraday probe above yesterday's high is likely since the 2164.25 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15. An offsetting test of the 2171.25 bias-up signal is in-play. Today's resolution might end very far into negative territory. Not confirming yesterday's breakout by a second consecutive higher close, should instead trend down intraday. The open has only fluctuated around yesterday afternoon's 2166.50 lows. That lower-end held while its range attacked 2171.25. Attacking 2175.25 from this level should be no less likely. \Meanwhile, there is not much of a requirement to probe higher, but that's the likely scenario so long as sellers don't gain traction.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2172.25  2166.25 ...would target  2177.25  2171.25 Bias-down: under  2165.00 2159.00 ...would target  2160.00  2154.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Was the upside objective invalidated? That's the most important question facing the market today. There was no outstanding higher objective until this morning's 2164.25 bias-down signal held through 10:15. It put into play an offsetting test of the 2171.25 bias-up signal.

Was that test Invalidated? Not at 10:30, despite being attacked then. Invalidating it then required exiting the bias environment under the 2159.75 bias-down TARGET.  You'll never guess what a sudden plunge from 2167.50 was attacking through 11:30-noon.

The 2159.75 bias-down target. To within 1 tick. It's still being tested now, during the noon hour, while RSIs diverge positively. But that upside objective is looking pretty dubious. No other upside objective, and a big target (2168.00) tested and retested. This market can get very bearish very quickly if that upside objective isn't valid. Back above 2163.00 would be the first indication of retesting yesterday's high. But there's not much time available to get that done.

Wednesday's breakout from a four-session range was not confirmed Thursday. As was expected for this pattern, the alternative to confirming would be a deep rejection of the breakout. Not just avoiding a positive close, but closing sharply lower. Equally important is what that means for this pattern. Simply not confirming Wednesday's breakout would have kept the door open to extending higher anyway. Trying to extend higher after Thursday's dive would very likely be reversed to fresh lows. No traction was gained Thursday afternoon, so only gapping open beyond either end of Thursday's range could resume trending before late-afternoon. Oversold RSIs at Thursday's 2153.50 low may facilitate a gap down. Meanwhile, lower lows overnight could already start recovering from 2152.00 and 2148.00. Thursday's unfinished business above at 2171.25 doesn't prevent a deeper drop from developing. Already firming into Friday's open, preferably after probing lower lows overnight -- just not gapping down -- would likely retest 2171.25 before the weekend. And then drop. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2171.50 2165.50 ...would target  2177.25  2171.25 Bias-down: under  2159.00  2153.00 ...would target 2154.00  2148.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.