Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday was likely to bounce, since Friday's confirmation of Thursday's breakout had not itself trended. Sunday's open had initially attacked Friday's lows down to 3192.00, but soon recovered to hover at or above Friday's high up to 3223.50. Monday's open initially filled the gap down to Friday's close at 3207.00. And held. The opening thrust setup was confirmed bullish at 10:00, and bias-up triggered at 10:15. A pullback to 3211.00 was recovered by noon on the way to fulfilling the morning's bias-up target up to 3233.50. Unfinished business was left outstanding above at the afternoon's 3238.00 late bias-up target, and below at the 3211.00 pullback's oversold RSIs. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Trending up into the Globex open came to within 1 tick of the 3238.00 objective. Still trending extended to attack 3247.00. But Monday's 3231.00 close was retraced by midnight. And narrow sideways ranging through Europe's opens has just broken sharply lower to within 2 ticks of yesterday's open at 3216.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Huge overnight moves:

Silver -- Mon close 24.51 ... overnight high 26.27 ... low 22.46 Gold -- Mon close 1954.40 ... overnight high 2000.00 ... low 1927.50 Bitcoin -- Mon "close" 10,860 ... overnight high 11,378 ... low 10,590

Key takeaway: Their ongoing surges extended sharply higher, then collapsed back under yesterday's lows. In this weekend's Saturday Review, I noted that this could be a pivotal week for near-term trend extremes, but every market wouldn't turn in lockstep. Will the domestic crowd view this morning's prices as buyable pullbacks? Which brings us to ES, which initially added 15 points to yesterday's rally, and has reversed to 15 points under yesterday's close. Monday's rally barely triggered a PM traction setup, which could produce a morning rally if the open can hold yesterday afternoon's 3221.00-3222.50 lows and also avoid trending down. Gapping down too deeply or sliding sharply would suggest the confirmed breakout's correction is done, and a close under 3191.00 is in-play. There's plenty of reward for reversing the overnight reaction back up, but there isn't much room or time to even absorb it. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3220.50 would be likely to trigger the 3225.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3233.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 3233.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3238.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3243.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Yesterday afternoon's lows hold. Overnight selling ultimately touched 3215.00. The 3224.00 open blipped-up to 3230.00 and reversed down sharply to 3219.50. That was a test of yesterday afternoon's 3220.00-3221.50 lows. And it held through 9:45. Fresh lows down to 3212.50 were under the open's range through 10:00. But its reaction back above the 3225.25 bias-down signal triggered late no-bias. An offsetting test of the 3238.00 bias-up target is in-play. Still missing among the bullish setups is a fresh high above the open's range. It's too late for that by 10:30, which would have confirmed all dips were absorbed. A fresh post-10:30 high would also confirm the late bias signal. Back under 3222.00 would target fresh post-open lows, potentially to the 3210.50 bias-down target. It would be no-bias trending and require being retraced. Exiting the bias environment any lower would invalidate the offsetting test of the 3238.00 bias-up target becoming unfinished business.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3247.75 3240.00 ...would target 3261.25 3253.50 Bias-down: under 3232.25 3224.50 ...would target 3218.75 3211.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Unfinished business above. Holding this morning's 3225.25 bias-down signal put into play an offsetting test of the 3238.00 bias-up signal. The bias environment lapse tested 3234.00, which is now being probed by 1 point after the noon hour's dip. At least fresh session highs remain likely. 3238.00 can be neutralized to within 3-6 ticks. Exceeding it would have potential up to 3248.00, or higher. And today's bounce can extend into tomorrow, or even Thursday, while still correcting last Thursday's confirmed breakout. A greater challenge to extending the rally is the oncoming anxiousness ahead of tomorrow afternoon's FOMC events, and ongoing post-close high-profile earnings. Regardless of higher objectives and attractions, today's final hour is the next opportunity to end the corrective bounce and to resume last Thursday's collapse.

Monday's corrective bounce had extended initially overnight to attack 3247.00, but Tuesday's 3224.00 open was back in negative territory. Pre-open and post-open dips had recovered back above Monday afternoon's 3231.00 close, and triggered bias-up, all undermining sellers. A gradual intraday rally barely came to within 2 points of fulfilling the morning's 3238.00 bias objective at the afternoon high. The final hour reversed down sharply to fresh session lows at 3208.00. Anxiousness is likely to thicken ahead of Wednesday morning's Tech CEO Senate hearings, the afternoon's FOMC events, and perhaps also earnings. That could inhibit trending from gaining traction, but not necessarily from being attempted. Tuesday afternoon's slide might have been a version of that. FOMC is not being greeted from a position of strength, not while a confirmed breakout's required lower close remains outstanding. This doesn't prevent bouncing Wednesday, but its context suggests any favorable reaction would be temporary, and not gain traction, regardless of its productivity. And expending so much selling pressure so late Tuesday, not already extending down at the open would keep open the door to another corrective bounce day Wednesday. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3228.00 3220.25 ...would target 3240.75 3233.00 Bias-down: under 3208.25 3200.50 ...would target 3195.75 3188.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.