Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday's open was greeted back up at Monday afternoon's 2811.25 high. Almost. A headline just minutes before the open triggered a spike up to 2818.50. Where the overnight bounce had threatened unconvincingly to gap up above 2811.25, unconvincingly, the spike up promised deceptively. Neither would qualify for triggering a "session-long rally" setup, and the spike up was retraced back down to the morning's 2808.50 bias-up signal. Another surge developed into the noon hour up to 2825.00, but its resistance held, too, and the balance of the session drifted lower into the cash session close at 2817.00. Futures bounced to 2824.00. That included a late blip-down to 2813.75 in reaction to another headline. Overnight action's new info... Just closing at or above 2817.00 Tuesday had kept sellers from regaining traction. A hold-long was avoided, but an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to AAPL's earnings blipped-up to attack 2828.00. Price had dipped back under Tuesday's high when news hit of new US tariffs against China. Spiking down pierced Tuesday's late 2813.00 low by 2 points. Ranging choppily sideways overnight is now retesting 2813.00 as support. If, then... Retracing the post-close surge doesn't yet equate to rejecting it. But exiting the open in negative territory could set a bearish tone ahead of this afternoon's FOMC policy statement. Whatever its reaction, interim defensive posturing could repeat Monday's test of 2801.50. And that only serves to chip away at support at this stage. Defensive posturing ahead of FOMC could be accomplished by a shallower dip, but there's a lot of time before then, and still a lot of news. Extending higher through Wednesday's open would all but confirm one more upleg is underway, targeting 2873.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2811.00 would be likely to trigger the 2813.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2817.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2820.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2823.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Narrowly ranging open finally breaks higher. Rallying up to 2821.50 opened only 2 points lower and ranged narrowly, choppily sideways through the first half-hour. Longer, even. The range was persisting at 10:15, away from either bias signal, triggering no-bias.

Then the opening range's upper-end broke higher to 2825.50. That probed the 2823.25 bias-up signal. But it was too late to trigger, or to invoke the grace period. Exceeding 2823.25 at 10:30 would have invalidated no-bias, but it wasn't, and it didn't.

Probing above 2823.25 this morning is no-bias trending that will require being retraced entirely. Exiting the bias environment above its 2831.00 bias-up target would excuse the retrace requirement. Good luck finding sponsorship. It's not impossible, but trending higher probably needs a catalyst like a headline. Meanwhile, trending higher will be difficult amid anxiousness ahead of this afternoon's FOMC policy statement, and through resistance at yesterday's high. Back under 2820.75 would start to signal a deeper pullback under, with plenty of room to expend selling pressure before it starts damaging the bottoming potential.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2818.25 2818.50 ...would target 2824.00 2824.25 Bias-down: under 2810.75 2811.00 ...would target 2804.25 2804.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Have sellers discounted enough of a reaction? No-bias triggered cleanly this morning. Attacking 2826.00 was required to retrace at least the 2823.25 bias-up signal. Anyway, its difficult attracting sponsorship ahead of FOMC policy statements. And the open's congestion was already likely to attract price back down.

The reversal targeted 2815.00. It has extended down to 2808.00 at the noon hour's low. Also probably not strong-handed sponsorship, but defensive posturing.

So, defensively postured enough? Has the drop discounted the potentially negative news, at least to soften its knee-jerk reaction and help 2804.50 hold as support? The 60-90 seconds following the news could be excused for a probe under 2801.50. An initially favorable reaction would itself need to be maintained, or else be vulnerable to testing 2804.50.  

Wednesday morning's delayed surge up to 2826.00 offered a high-probability short. No-bias trending above 2823.25 was already likely to fail, especially with the afternoon's FOMC event inhibiting sponsorship. Its reaction's 2815.00 target was exceeded by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} down to 2808.00. So, question: Was that defensive posturing successful to help absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction to FOCM? Price had only firmed into the FOMC, so optimism wasn't excessive. A delayed reaction dipped to 2805.50, ignoring potential for another point lower before bouncing to 2817.00. So, short answer: The morning's discounting helped. Longer answer: It probably didn't help enough. The afternoon's recovery was unimpressive -- perhaps inhibited by a White House announcement re:China that never materialized. Unlike Tuesday, 2817.00 was only touched and not recovered, which keeps the pattern vulnerable to dipping deeper. In fact, there's already a 9-point drop into and out of the close. Whether 2804.50 or a deeper probe under 2801.50, isolating fresh lows to the overnight could seal a near-term bottom. Gapping up above 2820.00 would be credible for extending higher, too -- difficult, but credible. Meanwhile, Thursday's close determines whether Friday's Employment Situation report is greeted from a position of strength, or weakness, which could be a landmark for near-term direction. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2815.25 2815.50 ...would target 2821.75 2822.00 Bias-down: under 2807.25 2807.50 ...would target 2801.25 2801.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.