Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday ranged narrowly sideways, again. Blame it on Congressional deadlock? Then credit same for the overnight rally. The 3321.75 new Globex trend extreme was probed intraday up to the morning's 3323.00 renewed bias-up target, neutralizing both. Neutralizing both, and then resisting the balance of the session. A third consecutive narrow range was unlikely, but the session ranged narrowly anyway. Wednesday was the first close not overlapping 3288.00, and the first session to develop entirely above 3288.00 and even its room for noise up to 3307.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Very narrow ranging suddenly spiked up 8 points to a new high at 2237.50. Its brief consolidation soon spiked up another couple of points to 3329.25. That's not much more, but it's enough to qualify as a new Globex trend extreme. It was retraced and also reversed down to 3313.00 by midnight, but not extended. Another surge out of Europe's opens attacked the earlier highs up to 3328.25, also temporarily before collapsing through overnight lows and yesterday's intraday lows to attack 3305.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) No unfinished business was left outstanding Tuesday, but a new Globex trend extreme quickly filled the void. It was neutralized Wednesday to again leave no unfinished business, and last night has again produced a new Globex trend extreme. They require intraday retest, which can be left outstanding, last night's high, too. Now reversing sharply, two bearish setups are threatening to form: Globex-flip and Isolation, essentially by spending the opening 15 minutes under 3315.00-3320.00. A pullback was already a growing risk, as the lack of intraday trending has been opening the door wider to a pullback. Under 3288.00 would have potential down to 3255.00-3260.25. Wednesday's gap up at 3314.25 will want to be filled from below, as will Monday's 3283.00 gap up, and now last night's 3329.25 high will want to be retested intraday, too. Meanwhile, closing again above 3288.00 today while not also overlapping it would create a position of strength that helps those recoveries actually extend the rally. Closing today under 3288.00 may be the only template that could still develop into a more substantial near-term decline. Despite the current threat of overnight lows, no intraday weakness is assured, as the market's apparent dependence upon a stimulus deal makes it likely to react up (even if only temporarily) in case an agreement is announced. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3317.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 3325.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3315.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3308.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3303.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Overnight dip recovered back up to yesterday's high. The bearish setups that were being threatened overnight had only evaporated into the open. Globex-flip and Isolation weren't attracting sponsorship. The alternative isn't necessarily bearish, but price has only firmed. The overnight dip ultimately touched 3300.50 before reacting up to 3318.00. Narrow ranging around the 3314.00 open finally resolved up after the open, and has extended to test the 3325.25 bias-up signal. The bias-up signal held, triggering no-bias. So, 3325.25 should define the bias window's upper-end. A reversal would similarly have room to the 3308.00 bias-down signal. Even if during this no-bias environment, recovering back into the orbit of the 3329.25 overnight high makes its retest likelier than not, and likelier soon rather than later. No-bias trending beyond a bias signal would require being retraced. The overnight high's retest could become a stretched rubber band that snaps back down sharply, even if done after the bias environment has lapsed.

THU P.M. BIAS At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3327.25 signal would target 3333.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3311.00 signal would target 3299.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals would maintain their range. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3334.50 3327.25 ...would target 3340.25 3333.00 Bias-down: under 3318.25 3311.00 ...would target 3306.50 3299.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Another narrowly ranging sideways session. The first hour's rally peaked abruptly at this morning's 3225.25 bias-up signal, which the no-bias environment had required to hold if tested. No-bias trending up to the 3229.25 overnight high wouldn't have been surprising, but stimulus negotiation headlines triggered a slide down to 3310.50. Trending up into the bias environment exit has extended through the noon hour. Entering the bias environment just 3 ticks under this morning's high has still triggered no-bias. Again. Now the afternoon's 3227.25 bias-up signal should hold if tested. And probing it momentarily up to 3229.25 would be surprising. Already, today's narrow sideways ranging has exceeded either end of yesterday's range to qualify as an outside day. Closing within yesterday's range would make trending or range expansion difficult in reaction to tomorrow's Employment Situation report. Meanwhile, the afternoon before Payrolls is often paralyzed by anxiousness. The overnight bearish effort was absorbed, and attraction to the overnight high remains intact. So, regardless of the close, an intraday probe of fresh highs remains likely.

The rally didn't wait long after finally closing cleanly above 3288.00 to extend higher. A new Globex trend extreme had formed above Wednesday's narrow range at 3329.25. Reversing back under Wednesday's range down to 3300.50 was recovered to open flat Thursday, avoiding two bearish setups that were forming. The morning's no-bias environment peaked at its bias-up signal, but the afternoon's no-bias environment extended to new recovery highs at 3344.00. That was the 3:10-3:20 proxy window exit, which the balance of the session consolidated. No-bias trending requires being retraced to its 3327.25 bias-up signal, and often also visits its 3323.00 1:20 print. The unfinished business at 3327.25 can be neutralized overnight. Afternoons before an Employment Situation report often don't trend as anxiousness paralyzes sponsorship. Optimism for a stimulus deal has at least created upside momentum to help absorb any negative headline reaction. By the way, that optimism remained intact through Thursday's late firming up to 3345.50. PM traction was gained by exiting Thursday afternoon's bias window above the noon hour high, and entering the final hour higher. Regardless of Friday's opening print, and so long as the open doesn't trend down, the morning should trend up. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3349.25 signal would target 3360.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3334.50 signal would target 3323.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals would maintain their range. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3356.50 3349.25 ...would target 3367.50 3360.25 Bias-down: under 3341.75 3334.50 ...would target 3330.50 3323.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.