Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 08-11-2015

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2107.00
2101.50
...would target 2112.50
2107.00
Bias-down: under 2100.00
2095.50
...would target 2094.25
2088.75
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN,, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Gapping up more than 13 points Monday to 2086.00 immediately surged even higher to attack 2095.00. The balance of the session extended higher, still, to probe the morning''s 2100.00 target by 3 ticks. No unfinished business was left outstanding, and buyers did not gain traction for their efforts.

Overnight action''s new info...
Initially probing another point higher to 2101.75 had settled back down to 2098.25 where China''s devaluation triggered a steep slide. Ranging 3 points either way around 2091.00 gave way to a lower low testing 2085.50. Its reaction up to 2092.25 has fallen back down to 2088.00.

If, then...
Before Monday afternoon signaled that trending was done, triggering a sell signal would have targeted 2091.00 and 2088.00. Avoiding that sell signal made extending higher Tuesday likelier. Extending higher would have required gapping up, which looks unlikely from a 10-14 point deficit currently. Trending back down is not the only alternative, but may be unavoidable if the open isn''t recovering 2088.00 and 2091.00.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2087.50 would be likely also not to recover the 2088.75 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal.

Ranging around support hasn''t extended or recovered.

Recovering from a post-open test of both 2082.25 and 2080.00 would have reflected sellers being done. The post-open low attacked 2080.75 and recovered 2083.00 through 9:45, so the form is right.

But not so much the function, not initially. The dip''s recovery got up to 2086.50 before failing. Several more tests of 2082.25 as support all held, launching an even higher reaction testing 2088.00.

And, back down to square-two -- another dip just touched 2083.00, and its reaction up is retesting 2086.50.

None of which means buyers have yet retaken control, nor that they must. But they can, so long as sellers aren''t any more productive. The recovery would likely extend so long as the bias environment lapses with 2091.00 in-play or recovered. The recovery is probably done if 2082.25 is broken again.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2086.75
2081.50
...would target 2091.25
2086.00
Bias-down: under 2078.25
2073.00
...would target 2072.50
2067.25
Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL
FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The bounce extended even higher Tuesday, still without any buy signal, and without there having been any accumulation. Resistance was tested at 1.1075, and reacted down to attack 1.1000, whose break would start to signal momentum may be reversing back down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sharply higher highs overnight tested 1119.00 before reacting back down under 1105.00 and 1108.50, needing to recover both -- and preferably also 1112.00 -- to confirm momentum remains pointed up.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gold''s overnight extension was ignored but its reaction down was more influential. Regardless, there is no bullish reason to further delay a more obvious rally leg Wednesday.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping back up extended higher to fill the gap back to Fridays'' 158-18 close and to probe Friday''s high, probing fresh highs above. Topping signals must appear almost immediately to avoid extending higher to 160-20. Topping signals such as closing back under 158-08 or lower

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
An overnight surge peaked suddenly upon touching the 45.15 bounce limit, resolving down in new lows probing under Sunday''s gap down and under 43.00.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday''s testing of 2.83 didn''t extend higher overnight, and faced pushback intraday Tuesday, still needing to close above 2.83 and 2.88 to launch an upleg.