Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 08-13-2015

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2093.00
2088.00
...would target 2099.75
2094.75
Bias-down: under 2082.75
2077.75
...would target 2077.50
2072.50
Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Wednesday''s 16-point gap down to 2064.00 extended sharply lower to 2046.50 through the morning''s bias timing window at 10:30. The balance of the session trended back up relentlessly, recovering into positive territory attacking 2085.00. The recovery gained traction for its efforts, although it left outstanding the potential for a pullback to 2075.25.

Overnight action''s new info...
The first attempt to probe higher touched 2086.00 where another Yuan devaluation triggered a mini-plunge that came within 3 ticks of the 2075.25 target. That recovered quickly, and eventually extended to fresh highs at 2093.00 ahead of Europe''s opens. Another slide probed a point back under Wednesday''s high to 2083.50, but that has recovered to 2091.00.

If, then...
Having gained traction yesterday, the recovery should extend during this morning''s bias environment -- actually trending, and not just probing higher momentarily. Early weakness back into negative territory should recover, more so if delayed until the afternoon.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2088.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2095.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2094.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2075.00 would be likely to trigger the 2077.75 bias-down signal.

Opening dip delays rewarding yesterday''s recovery.

Trending still higher overnight did not qualify as rewarding yesterday''s recovery for having gained traction. The likely reward is to trend higher the following morning.

Which this morning surely has not.

The overnight rally to 2093.00 greeted the open at or under yesterday''s 2082.25 cash session close equivalent. That pullback tested 2075.25 three times before rallying back up to 2082.25.

Meanwhile, the 2077.75 bias-down signal was overlapped in time to invoke the grace period. Dipping to 2073.25 was nevertheless recovered to overlap 2077.75 at 10:30.

As warned during the pre-market Tour, anything signaling a bearish context this morning would be suspicious. So, this is a noN-bias environment -- the bias-down target isn''t in-play, and neither is an offsetting test of the bias-up signal.

The backing-and-filling might have bottomed, but it may not be ready to resolve up. Not rewarding yesterday''s recovery this morning should then deliver that reward this afternoon. All of which assumes this morning''s bias environment isn''t exited in decline.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2091.00
2086.00
...would target 2095.75
2091.00
Bias-down: under 2080.00
2075.25
...would target 2074.50
2069.50
Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Thursday under 1.1120 was extended initially to attack 1.1075 to trying forming an Island Reversal setup. A recovery back above 1.1120 did avoid reversing momentum down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday''s rally revised the pullback limit up to 1112.00, which was tested at Thursday''s open and essentially through the balance of the day. It must hold in order to maintain the rally''s momentum.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday''s pullback held its test of Tuesday''s "lower prior highs" at 15.30, maintaining the rally''s momentum.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Attacking the 158-08 pullback limit into Wednesday''s close was immediately extended at Thursday''s open. The session basically consolidated under 158-08 down to 157-14, whose break would have signaled the trend reversing down.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Without even threatening to recover, fresh lows have now pierced 42.00. The breakout close immediately follows an unconfirmed breakout close, which makes Friday less likely to close lower. But that''s not yet to be taken as bottoming, as the sequence can repeat indefinitely while price continues sliding.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday''s EIA report triggered a spike down through 2.88 to attack 2.83, which gradually weakened from there back through Tuesday''s prior low to test 2.77. Closing back above 2.83 would signal the rally had resumed.