Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 08-28-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Friday's gap up to 2446.00 and its immediate surge to 2453.50 were retraced entirely through the morning bias environment. Filling the gap back down to Thursday's 2441.00 close was able to hold. At least for the purpose of injecting a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the post-open drop. And having corrected it, the balance of the session fell back to the morning's low. Overnight action's new info... Actually, Friday's last dip attacked the morning's low. Sunday night's open sliced through it, touching what had been Thursday's 2437.50 cash session close. Consolidating narrowly under Friday's lows was jarred loose at Europe's opens, which triggered a smaller spike down to 2436.25. That didn't extend, and was soon retraced. Then reversed into positive territory up to 2444.50. If, then... Testing 2438.00 support had become likely after Wednesday's pullback failed to recover. So, it was tested Thursday down to 2434.50. The pullback had potential for extending to 2429.00 if Friday did not gap up sufficiently, which it did not. Not gapping up sufficiently this morning maintains that potential for extending the pullback down to 2429.00 -- and the open is currently indicated flat-to-lower. A recovery needs to become very obvious very soon if it will avoid a deeper pullback. Not gapping up could still firm or bounce through the morning without yet reversing back down. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2444.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2439.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2438.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it is Monday it's time for Monday's Morning Market to her a little bit of a surge here which interesting because 2443 is Friday's cash session close Friday's cash session closed equates to 2443 that is after Friday afternoons last down leg last dip back down to the mornings low where's a Futures close at 4215 but cash is some clothes acquitted 243 and remember it was it was a pretty extended shallow but thoughtful or I may be trudging is a better word recovery a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} recovery of the mornings drop and that morning drop was not unpredictable at all it wasn't necessarily going to happen in the morning but it was going to happen because Friday is open didn't Gap up sufficiently at least didn't extend its Gap up to be sufficient and extending higher extended higher too late to be maintained and extended higher to neutralize attraction above and that was the gap the Gap back to Tuesday's close so Friday is open gapped up it didn't extend above Friday's High's Thursday's hi sorry filled the Gap neutralized that attraction in other words got on with the rejection and never turned negative never turned negative and which is interesting because won't fill the gap on the reaction down from the Gap back to Thursdays 2441 closed Thursday's session clothes was 3750 + 3750 didn't require being tested but it was pretty shallow man certainly kept alive the bearish scenario because Friday is reaction down stop optimistically short another word from a contrarian perspective potentially nourish and retraced its own attraction so to speak the 6180 retracement hand responded to it so 3750 is a traction or what is really another test of 38 remained alive remains alive hand because 38 when it was tested Thursday wasn't able to produce a sustainable recovery it's really intraday if 38 is riposte open it probably won't hold maybe during the time that might be able to hide rarely enforced into positive territory but temporarily that fell back down to Fresh Lowe's that's your UPS opens right there breathe breathe and rejected as you can see so and the Odyssey will come back to last week doesn't have to be tested to that degree but being an inverted Head and Shoulders once its objective is tested because very vulnerable to reversing back down to and through the head and shoulders pattern holding on they were down earlier but they're not down now and not down so holding on suggesting upside remains intact gold will be rolling coverage forward blowing coverage forward at the clothes are at the day we spot today it's not going to make a difference to the trending down targeting 281 basis set which is about $0.03 I think it's raining in a $0.03 discount to October so to 8134 bases October would be the objective but nothing about this pattern says that that's going to be avoided to make a difference .

Gap up fails to extend, falls. Gapping up to and/or through 2445.00, then extending through 2446.50, would have been reliable for extending higher this morning. The 2447.25 bias-up signal's 2453.50 target could be tested while holding a retest of Friday morning's high. But the overnight recovery from 2436.25 got too optimistic. Gapping up to 2448.25 and blipping-up 1 point was reversed back down immediately. The opening 15 minutes of volatility lapsed at or under 2446.50, instead of extending its recovery.

There was still potential for holding 2445.00, but gave way to Friday's 2443.00 cash session close. Now that has extended down to 2440.50, after triggering no-bias.

An offsetting test of the 2439.75 bias-down signal is in-play. And it's going to be difficult for the pullback to above extending down to 2427.25-2429.00. Back above 2445.00 could start to signal momentum reversing back up.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2447.50 2446.50 ...would target  2452.50  2451.50 Bias-down: under  2440.00  2439.00 ...would target  2434.50  2433.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Gap up's rejection holds. Retracing the open's 2448.25 gap up fell to 2440.50 as the morning's bias environment began. Its reaction up tested 2445.00 and fell to 2438.00 during the noon hour. This afternoon's 2439.00 bias-down signal held its test to trigger no-bias. And now a bounce is testing  2442.00. The bounce could extend up to the 2444.00 area, and still be likely to resolve down. This morning's "unfinished business below" at 2439.75 has been neutralized, so another rally leg can't be dismissed -- back above 2445.00 would start to signal something more substantial underway. Otherwise, back under 2439.25 would all but ensure extending to fresh lows. And fresh lows at this point all but ensures testing 2427.25-2429.00.

Monday's open mirrored Friday's gap up, in that both were too shallow to be maintained. At least Friday's gap up extended higher before reversing into negative territory. Monday's gap up began reversing down immediately, also eventually probing negative territory. Negative territory was probed down to 2438.00. That's relevant support, but it already had an opportunity to launch a recovery. Testing it during the noon hour does keep open the door to recovery, but doesn't relieve it from needing to gap up. Otherwise, there's no bullish reason to have retested 2438.00, and its break would target 2427.25-2429.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2448.25 2447.50 ...would target  2453.50  2452.75 Bias-down: under  2439.75  2439.00 ...would target 2434.25  2433.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.