Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 09-01-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Sunday night''s plunge to 1960.00 did a relatively small portion of what Friday had been vulnerable to throughout the day. Monday''s session was vulnerable to extending down further, but only attacked the overnight low. At least the entire session was spent in negative territory, and its sellers gained traction for their efforts.

Overnight action''s new info...
Empathizing with China crashing again helped to deliver the rest of what Friday had been vulnerable to -- by dropping 31 points to test 1931.00. Consolidating there has broken lower to 1919.50, where a bounce is probing back above 1931.00.

If, then...
We discussed during yesterday''s post-market Wrap that seasonal bullishness surrounding Labor Day weekend all but required resuming the decline without delay, or else it would be delayed until next week. As powerful as the overnight plunge is, there is still a small window to reverse momentum back up. Just gapping down to 1938.00 would form a sort of Island from Thu-Mon price action. Not the sort of Island that requires being retested, but which resumes the prevailing trend. Room for noise under 1938.00 down to 1934.00 must both maintain their breaks through today''s open to maintain the overnight plunge''s momentum. Otherwise, momentum can be pointed back upward for the balance of the morning.

First Trade...
The market is far below this morning''s bias parameters.

Late fresh pre-open low rejected.

1919.50 was the overnight low prior to this morning''s Market Tour. It was broken during the Market Tour down to 1914.00. The open was greeted back at 1923.00. And that extended higher to 1932.00 and 1939.50.

Overnight sellers had gotten ahead of themselves. But then opening buyers did the same. Reacting down fell to 1921.50 and recovered almost entirely back up to 1938.00.

A lot of selling pressure was thrown at the market. It was all absorbed, as was another shallower dip. But it hasn''t been reversed. Holding its ground through the morning would require an obligatory fresh post-open high. While 1940.75 would have sufficed earlier, that could extend much higher before resuming the decline. (e.g. This morning''s bias-down target is 1954.00.)

But resuming the decline remains likely, since reactions to the dips failed to gain traction through any relevant window. It should be a matter only of from what higher level. Trying to resume the decline from under 1940.75 would be likely again to recover.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1941.25
1938.00
...would target 1947.25
1944.00
Bias-down: under 1929.25
1926.00
...would target 1923.75
1920.50
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having held the maximum pullback potential for two days, a recovery needed to be underway without further delay to recover the prior week''s decline without launching new downleg. Tuesday did begin firming, but not yet overtly enough to be confident a recovery has begun.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight extended higher Tuesday morning to fulfill the 1147.40 bounce target. Its test reacted down, but closing above it with a second consecutive higher close for confirmation would put into play fresh highs above 1169.00''s original target.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Resistance at 14.55 held tests Tuesday as the gap back down to last Wednesday''s 14.35 open still should be filled before a recovery attempt would be credible for extending.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows overnight had recovered to gap up Tuesday morning. The gap up barely attacked the 155-24 buy signal before dipping back under Monday''s 154-08 low to fresh lows, albeit not quite back to the overnight low.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Third day was not so charming, after all, as the three-day surge reacted down sharply Tuesday to weak economic data globally, testing 45.55 whose break would start to signal the rally''s momentum has peaked. Reversing momentum down would be signaled under 44.15-44.75. There is otherwise potential to retest Monday''s high up to 50.10.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday from the range''s lower-end stopped pessimistically short of even touching 2.73. Extending higher early Wednesday would be credible for at least testing the 2.77 buy signal.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1918.50
1915.25
...would target 1926.00
1922.75
Bias-down: under 1910.25
1907.00
...would target 1904.50
1901.25
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.