Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 09-02-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Monday night''s plunge didn''t extend down immediately. Rather, Tuesday morning formed a Symmetrical Triangle that narrowed between 1921.00-1940.00 to its 1231.00 apex at noon That broke lower into an Expanding Triangle between 1913.00-1927.00 that broke lower into the final hour. Its plunge to 1898.00 was recovered as quickly back into the afternoon''s triangle.

Overnight action''s new info...
Firming back to 1921.00 then accelerated to 1934.00 in reaction to BOJ intervention. Improving later to 1939.00 proved temporary, eventually reacting down to test 1921.00.

If, then...
We haven''t seen an overnight head-fake in awhile. That''s trending in one direction overnight which reverses into quite a different tone through the morning. The reversal tends to be abrupt at the open, but avoiding a head-fake by resuming the overnight trend need not be very obvious immediately. This being Wednesday before a three-day weekend, trending to new extremes should be obvious early, or else new extremes become unlikely. So, sell signals will get a bigger benefit of the doubt than buy signals.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1925.00 would be likely also to exceed the 1922.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1911.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1915.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Opening decline is setting today''s tone.

After recovering almost 20 points to attack the 1939.00 overnight high before the open, a last-minute blip-up pierced 1941.00 by 3 ticks.

Recovering 1941.00 would have rejected the head-fake template discussed in The First Trade blog post and during the pre-market Tour. Similarly, reacting down immediately back under 1938.00 confirmed it.

Back under 1938.00 and 1934.00, to 1927.00. And after consolidating back to 1934.00, that''s breaking lower to test 1918.00.

The head-fake template hasn''t completely rejected the overnight rally, but that''s its objective. Meanwhile, this morning is still bias-up. In fact, its bias-up signal is renewed, for having exceeded the 1922.75 bias-up target through 10:15. But all renewed targets have been met already.

There consolidation resisted by 1934.00 had some instances of "ineffectual optimism." Now there''s more, bouncing off of 1918.00 after barely touching yesterday''s post-close surge. Yesterday''s cash session close equated to 1907.75 and RSIs were oversold simultaneously at the 1898.75 low to require its retest. That''s the least of it, so long as the bias environment isn''t exited in rally mode.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1928.25
1925.00
...would target 1934.25
1931.00
Bias-down: under 1915.00
1911.75
...would target 1908.50
1905.25
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday''s gap down didn''t extend lower intraday, so it didn''t necessarily reject Tuesday''s firming, or the potential for rallying back up to prior highs. But there is no bullish reason to further delay obvious rallying.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having fulfilled the minimum bounce objective Tuesday to within a dime at 1147.40, the reaction down got a little weaker Wednesday. Any higher high would next target a retest of the rally''s original 1169.00 target, and higher to the 1179.50 area.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow choppiness around 14.55 resistance continued to fight the requirement for filling the gap back to last Wednesday''s 14.35 gap down, which makes rally attempts less credible so long as it remains outstanding.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up again Wednesday also failed to extend higher intraday again. That didn''t result in a new downleg, although there is that vulnerability if only for being range bound instead of surging through 155-16 to retest the highs.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday''s post-close low had reacted to inventory data, which was repeated after bouncing overnight in reaction to Wednesday''s EIA report. Reacting up sharply from Monday''s 43.65 prior low''s retest to 46.00 further suggested that Tuesday''s retracement had not reversed the trend down, and that the rally''s momentum could still retest Monday''s high up to 50.10.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday''s restrained optimism of gapping up within the range without extending through it would have made fresh highs Wednesday credible for extending intraday. But Wednesday gapped down, also within the range, still giving clearance to fresh highs Thursday to extend. But the EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, so a knee-jerk reaction down can''t be precluded.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1952.00
1948.75
...would target 1957.75
1954.75
Bias-down: under 1934.00
1931.00
...would target 1927.75
1924.50
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.