THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2940.75 2940.75 ...would target 2947.00 2947.00 Bias-down: under 2932.75 2932.75 ...would target 2927.25 2927.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Of Wednesday's two bullish templates, the first was disqualified by not immediately surging through the open. The second bullish template resembled the bearish template by first backing-and-filling. But it had to be relatively shallow by only briefly probing under the 2925.25-2933.00 kill zone, if at all. The 10:15 bias timing window reached 2891.50, still above both bias-up parameters. The balance of the session trended back up, still tracking the bullish template by entering the noon hour above the open's 2933.50 high. Sideways ranging into the 2:00 Beige Book release tested and retested 2930.00, then rallied to 2939.00 at the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) Yesterday's last upleg hovered through the Globex open before surging to 2945.25. A China trade war headline finally explained it, triggering a 30-point surge to 2971.75. That would be the overnight high. Flat-to-lower ranging through midnight attacked and tested 2965.00 several times, then broke lower to greet Europe's opens on the way down to 2950.50. Another bounce probed back above the earlier "higher prior lows" up to 2967.00, which is now trying to hold. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Holding 2929.00 support and recovering 2935.50 yesterday kept its bullish template in-play, along with probing higher at key afternoon windows to at least suggest buyers were gaining traction. That setup wouldn't have suggested the most compelling hold-long, but combined with the template it reflected strong-handed buyers wanting to buy for whatever reason they were given. This setup tends to influence the following morning, which would be more reliable for having probed so much higher overnight. I'll still be a little suspicious initially since Europe initially dipped, regardless of its eventual recovery. But like yesterday, not dipping too deeply or just surging would be credible for repeating the overnight rally. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Both bias-up parameters are well below current price action. But exiting the open at 9:45 above 2960.00 would be likely to maintain any attraction back up to overnight highs.

By too much? Yesterday afternoon's rally wasn't compelling in gaining traction. Not compelling enough to merit a hold-long. But rallying overnight, regardless of how substantially, made the setup more reliable for influencing this morning's price action. This morning's templates were similar to yesterday. Trending up this morning would be likely to become obvious quickly. Which the open did, soon triggering a 2969.50 buy signal. Its next likely attraction at 2980.25 was probed by a single leg up to 2986.50. All of which was retraced even faster to 2987.75. The pullback, regardless of how deep, was still contained within 4 minutes for its sponsorship to possibly be weak-handed. Back above 2982.00 had the opportunity to resume the rally, but has failed. Fresh lows are now testing a sell signal at 2977.75. Probing deeper than the first 3 minutes under 2977.75 would reflect reinforcements and could be attracted down to the 2966.00 opening gap. A blip-up on Crude EIA (delayed one day this week) notwithstanding, back above 2982.00 could resume this morning's rally.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2984.00 2984.25 ...would target 2993.00 2993.25 Bias-down: under 2974.00 2974.25 ...would target 2968.50 2968.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The rally may yet resume. The first hour's 2986.00 peak had quickly retraced the 2980.25 objective it was tested, spending about 11 minutes above it. Sound familiar? That's a lot like yesterday morning's successful test of 2925.25-2933.00 that was probed down to 2921.00. And yesterday's dip was reversed, by a lot. But this morning's rally differs in at least one critical way, that it outlasted the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Not for long, only 3 minutes, so it also differs in another critical way -- the noon hour wasn't entered under a relevant level. The reversal attempt is yet to become more than a pullback.

Today's pattern is more similar to Tuesday, which soon probed lower from gapping down, but just as quickly stopped doing that. Other intraday downlegs, and preventing bounces from recovering positive territory, all expended selling pressure without producing anything new. Sellers weren't gaining traction for their efforts.

Having held a test of the afternoon's 2974.25 bias-down signal, this should be the lower-end of the window. Back above 2976.00-2977.00 would become attracted to the window's upper-end at its 2984.25 bias-up signal. And that could extend higher after the environment lapses. So, this pullback should be the deepest price gets before resuming the rally. Much cheaper would become likelier to visit 2966.00 first.

Thursday qualified as a breakout, but dubiously. More on that below... Meanwhile, it's important to note that Thursday was a second consecutive gap up open, which often ranges sideways. Not necessarily without trying to extend the trend, first, which Thursday did -- up from Wednesday's 2938.50 close to open at 2966.00, then up to 2986.50 through the bias timing window. But that's where the rally ended. A pullback to 2972.00 was retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} up to 2981.00 before the last half-hour, which tumbled back down to 2972.00. As a session, Thursday is still a breakout from a multi-session range. But it is desperately in need of confirmation from a second consecutive higher close on Friday. Perhaps the trending stopped from anxiousness ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report. But without a confirming session, nearby attractions below are the Gap-to-gap 38.2-61.8 retracements at 2955.50 and 2949.00. The next significant higher objectives are 2997.75 and then 3014.00-3016.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2979.50 2979.75 ...would target 2985.25 2985.50 Bias-down: under 2971.50 2971.75 ...would target 2963.25 2963.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.