Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's pre-open to post-open surge was very deceptive to those that didn't know better. Surging from a fresh overnight low at 2906.00 to attack Tuesday's 2917.75 high might have suggested an opportunistic session ahead. But not with the day's volume likely to be thin. Choppiness persisted during the morning, with a dip back down to 2910.00 recovering to momentarily pierce a new high at 2918.75. Still, no trending, as the entire afternoon ranged narrowly between 2912.50-2915.50. The dead afternoon undermines the reliability of a passively bearish WedEX that triggered on the day.  "Unfinished business" was left outstanding at 2908.00. Overnight action's new info... Price has improved, but nothing's yet obviously predictive. Yesterday afternoon's narrow range had ended on an upswing to its 2915.50 upper-end, which initially firmed further through the Globex open up to 2918.00. Its reversal back down into the range was recovered to touch yesterday's 2918.75 high. Its reaction down barely attacked yesterday afternoon's high as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) If overnight price improvement is going to be predictive, then it's time to start being obvious about it. And this pattern only offers a chance for being bullishly predictive, not bearishly. The first step would be to indicate a gap up. Not only because no traction was gained yesterday, but also to convert the passively bearish WedEX into actively bullish. That can be done by proxy of gapping up or immediately extending to fresh highs. So, whether at Thursday's open, or later intraday, the rally is free to resume at any time. All of which would require ignoring the 2908.00 attraction below. And a pullback has room deeper down to 2903.00 just as noise -- momentum doesn't even threaten to reverse down from above 2900.00. . First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2920.25 would be likely to trigger the 2918.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2915.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Gap up extends. Yesterday's 2918.75 high was being attacked when I recorded this morning's pre-open Market Tour, and published the First Trade blog post: "If overnight price improvement is going to be predictive, then it’s time to start being obvious about it." The market soon obliged by surging up to 2927.00. The open was greeted several ticks higher, and the opening 15 minutes of volatility trended up to establish strong-handed sponsorship. Post-open action has extended already up to 2933.00. Gapping up does two things. First, it entrenches the rally. So, even if price were to collapse suddenly, today's gap up above all prior highs will need to be retested eventually from below. Second, gapping up serves by proxy to convert yesterday's WedEX to actively bullish. That refers to expiration's influence tomorrow afternoon, but any interim dip should recover. Keep in mind that historically a trend extreme is very unlikely at expiration. In case of a pullback today, the rally's health depends on not yet touching "lower prior highs" from yesterday.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2931.00 2936.50 ...would target 2935.75 2941.25 Bias-down: under 2923.75 2929.50 ...would target 2918.50 2924.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Not done, but overdone. The open's one opportunity to reverse down from gapping up was under 2927.00. But it was probed by only 3 ticks, and never any deeper than its first 3-4 minutes. It was also the post-open low. Price action since then has trended up relentlessly to 2938.50. The degree to which the rally has reached doesn't make it any more vulnerable to peaking, or to pausing, or to reversing. But it just tested this afternoon's 2936.50 bias-up signal and fail to trigger. This is a late no-bias environment. Trending strongly intraday to new highs through multiple consecutive timing windows is difficult to reverse. So, reversing down is unlikely. The setup tends to be followed by a lot of buyers below the market, their limit orders acting as buffers to rolling over. Nevertheless, the futures premium to its underlying cash has contracted by 2 ticks since yesterday, so at least a shallow a pause or backing-and-filling is possible. The no-bias environment has room to test its 2929.50 bias-down signal just as noise. Probing deeper would be "no-bias trending" and require being recovered. That, or after the bias window starts lapsing, could extend down to 2925.00 or 2920.25 if the unlikely develops.

Gapping up Thursday and trending higher relentlessly into the afternoon confirms the longstanding bigger picture's expectations that new highs be made aggressively into an ultimate top. The expectation has also been for multiple consecutive uptrending sessions, which is likely since expirations rarely produce trend extremes. We'll discuss that in more detail this weekend. Meanwhile, simply maintaining Thursday's gap up serves by proxy to form a bullish WedEX. That will apply to Friday afternoon - Monday morning. Friday morning might trend up anyway, too, since Thursday afternoon's final hour entry and proxy window gained traction, and the position-squaring window didn't reject it. Thursday afternoon's traction doesn't immunize Friday morning from a pullback. Neither would a Friday morning pullback interfere with the afternoon's bullish WedEX influence. Regardless, keep in mind that expiration -- Quad Witch, no less -- can accentuate, accelerate, or prematurely abandon otherwise reliable signals. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2934.50 2940.50 ...would target 2941.50 2947.50 Bias-down: under 2927.50 2933.50 ...would target 2922.25 2928.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.