Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 11-05-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

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Through the prior close... Wednesday's gap down barely tried recovering before extending even lower through the noon hour down to 2090.50. The afternoon's bounce  to 2100.00didn't reverse the trend back up, and "unfinished business below" was left outstanding at the 2088.25 bias-down target. Overnight action's new info... Firming up to 2098.00 was contained easily within yesterday afternoon's range. A 6-point drop at Europe's opens was recovered entirely, first back up to 2098.00, and then through yesterday afternoon's 2101.00 high to attack 2105.00. If, then... Gapping up above yesterday's 2100.50 noon hour high might not be enough to break the attraction to 2088.25 below. It might, but recovering 2105.50 would be more assuring. Anyway, the reward would be to probe Tuesday's 2110.25 high, probably up to 2113.00 or could allow probing Tuesday's 2110.25 high before 2117.00. BOJ and BOE overnight endorsed lower rates, prompting the overnight rally. But a litter of Fed speakers are scheduled throughout today who are likely to promote the opposite. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2104.50 would be likely to trigger the 2101.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2099.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2109.25 would become likely also to exceed the 2107.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Overnight rally and post-open bounce slaughtered. Apparently the overnight rally had reacted down into the open too much too quickly. Another bounce was needed to fatten it up again.

Just to be sure, the 2099.00 preliminary resistance held a test through 9:45. That suggested the 2101.00 bias-up signal wouldn't trigger. So, despite probing the bias-up signal up to 2103.00, a reaction down avoided triggering it.

And now having tested the bias-up signal without triggering it, an offsetting test of the 2089.75 bias-down signal was put into play. It was tested at 10:30, but not decisively enough to invalidate the no-bias environment signaled at 10:15. That didn't prevent "no-bias trending" beyond the bias signal, which extended down to 2084.00 (also fulfilling the 2088.25 unfinished business below, and this morning's 2084.75 bias-down target). Now that probe has been retraced to the 2089.75 bias-down signal as the no-bias trending required. Often, no-bias trending is retraced also to the 10:15 print, which is 2095.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2104.00 2097.50 ...would target  2110.50  2104.00 Bias-down: under  2096.25  2089.75 ...would target 2089.75  2083.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Decline absorbed, but not rejected. No-bias trending often retraces not only the bias signal, but the level printed at 10:15. That was 2095.00, and it was tested into the noon hour. Flat-to-higher ranging since then tested this afternoon's 2097.50 bias-up signal. But it didn't trigger. Now 2095.00 is being probed down to 2093.00. Could this lack of direction be foreshadowing price action for the rest of the session? Employment Situation report is tomorrow morning, and anxiousness ahead of it often paralyzes trending attempts. For now, the 2095.00 bias-up signal held its test, leaving room to gravitate down to the 2089.75 bias-down signal.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Gapping up shallowly Thursday didn't extend higher intraday as it remained within Wednesday's range. At least a momentary probe under Wednesday's low would be optimal to forming a bottom, but not necessary. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Thursday's narrow ranging around the 1106.50 objective met Wednesday didn't extend the decline, or reject it. But now early strength Friday would be credible for extending higher intraday, or else new lows become likely. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Probing lower lows Thursday remained under pressure throughout the session. An immediately rally leg would not be credible for extending without first forming a basing pattern. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Fresh lows Thursday fulfilled the minimum 153-25 objective. But the decline's momentum remains intact so long as bounces don't recover above 'higher prior lows" at 154-10/154-14. Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Probing under 46.00 Thursday didn't accelerate down, which significantly undermines whether the critical support is actually breaking lower. Wednesday's "ineffectual optimism" hovering just above 46.00 suggested a valid break would be aggressive. Further delaying lower lows would make another bounce likely targeting 49.15. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Gapping up to 2.31 extended intraday to test 2.37 whose recovery would signal a much more significant rally leg finally underway. Closing back under 2.31 would target at least one more fresh low.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2105.50 2099.50 ...would target  2111.50  2105.50 Bias-down: under  2097.50 2091.50 ...would target  2091.50  2085.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Thursday afternoon's chop was a predictable product of anxiousness ahead of Friday morning's Employment Situation report. The influential news is being greeted from a pullback that held 2088.00 as support. This followed two consecutive closes above 2088.00 (and an interim session that avoided it altogether). If 2088.00's recovery is relevant, then Friday's news reaction should resume rallying into the weekend. Otherwise, breaking back under 2088.00 would signal a deeper drop underway -- still probably just a detour on the way to temporarily probing new highs. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzbwwh

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc