DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&ADay Trading Pre-Open Strategy - 6:56 AM
Edit
handed, and temporary. And after extending 10 points to 3102.00 had fulfilled the renewed bias-up target, the afternoon trended back down. The 3092.00 anchor was retraced by noon when Trump's anticipated speech began, and the final hour was greeted much lower at 3083.00. Bouncing into Tuesday's close tested 3092.00 as resistance.
Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex)
Tuesday's late bounce from 3083.00 was fully retraced well before midnight down to 3082.00. Bouncing into Europe's opens peaked at 3088.00 and began collapsing on the way down to 3076.00. Now another bounce is attacking 3081.00.
If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Tuesday's new high probed above two prior sessions' highs without gaining traction, reflecting weak-handed buyers. So, having retraced its nearest anchor intraday, retracing the next lower anchor was the pattern's likelier objective at Monday's 3077.00 open. Its overnight retest could be the pullback's low if isolated by recovering high enough at Wednesday's open -- at least 3084.25 and preferably 3088.75. Otherwise, an air pocket probably lies below 3077.00 intraday on the way down to 3066.00, with potential for extending down to 3044.50.
First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters)
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3083.50 would be likely to trigger the 3085.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3088.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Market Opening Thoughts - 10:28 AM
Edit
open touched 3078.00, and snapped back up through the recovery high to 3086.25. And now its reaction down to 3080.25 has been reversed yet higher to test 3088.50.
The overnight test of Monday's 3077.00 anchor wasn't isolated, but the post-open dip to 3078.00 may qualify as its intraday retest. Regardless, there's no bullish reason to revisit it, and little obligatory support for its retest to prevent breaking into an air pocket below it.
Meanwhile, post-open action has held a test of this morning's 3085.00 bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the 3095.50 bias-up signal. And why not? With the televised impeachment hearings already competing for attention since 10:00 -- and soon also Fed Chair Powell's own Congressional testimony at 11:00 -- retracement is likelier than trending.
So long as sellers haven't yet retaken control, today's bounce could easily be extended back up into negative positive territory. Back up to yesterday's high would be more difficult and less likely, but any substantial moves seem to depend upon Powell's remarks more than any other input.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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Market Mid-Day Predictions - 1:46 PM
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3088.50. An offsetting test of its 3095.50 bias-up signal was put into play. So, a 4-point dip attacking 3084.00 after 10:30 was likely not only to hold but also to recover, offering a highly-reliable long-entry.
The rally resumed almost immediately and almost relentlessly through the noon hour, until touching 3095.50.
The upside attraction is neutralized. And having stopped short of this afternoon's 3097.00 bias-up signal, this is a no-bias environment. The 3087.00-3097.00 bias signals should define the window's either end if tested, with no requirement to test either.
As noted earlier, probing back into positive territory is easy, but retesting yesterday's highs is difficult. Now this afternoon's no-bias environment is likelier to drift back down than to extend higher. Either end of the 3087.00-3097.00 bias signals can be broken with impunity when the bias environment is lapsing -- perhaps that's when the impeachment hearings will recess 😉
Session Wrap - 4:32 PM
Edit
originated too late to be strong-handed. Its retracement extended lower to suggest that Monday's 3077.00 anchor would be retraced, too. And it was tested overnight down to 3076.00. Its support combined with the morning's bias-down target in that area to launch a rally through the morning.
The rally recovered the morning's bias-down signal in time to put into play an offsetting test of its 3095.50 bias-up signal, which the noon hour high fulfilled. The afternoon's no-bias environment was required to test its 3097.00 bias-up signal, but its test was required to hold if tested.
Then with perfect timing -- and more so, with perfect pricing -- touching the 3097.00 bias-up signal coincided with a China trade headline. Its reaction collapsed to test the 3087.00 bias-down signal, also required to hold if tested.
Probing down to 3085.50 still held the bias-down signal and reversed up, customarily retracing the China trade headline by at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} up to 3095.00. With its upside attraction neutralized and the close fast-approaching, Wednesday's final minutes fluctuated choppily around unchanged at 3091.25-3092.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Predictions - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Monday's anchor holds its retest as televised distractions begin.
The 3075.75 overnight low was recovered pre-open up to 3083.75. Its reaction down through the
WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
3098.50
3097.00
...would target
3104.25
3102.75
Bias-down: under
3088.25
3087.00
...would target
3082.25
3081.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS
.
BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Morning's objective met, and held.
As promised in the pre-open Market Tour, already retracing back down to Monday's anchor assured today would trend sharply in one direction or the other.
This morning's 3085.00 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15 by bouncing back up to
Tuesday's post-open rally above 3092.00 was retraced entirely from 3102.00 because it had
THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
3098.25
3097.00
...would target
3104.00
3102.75
Bias-down: under
3089.25
3088.00
...would target
3082.25
3081.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL
.
BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.