Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Unless already gapping up above Wednesday's highs to at least 3577.00, Thursday was more vulnerable to retracing oversold RSIs outstanding from Tuesday at 3523.00 and 3506.50. Morning bias parameters signaled as much, but then spent most of its window sporadically probing back above its 3561.00 bias-down signal. Already having resolved down, the noon hour collapsed to 3523.00. Flat-to-lower ranging through the afternoon got to 3513.00, where a late bounce surged through the close up to 3548.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The weak-handedness of Thursday's late 34-point post-close surge had made it a tempting short. And the first order of business was to retrace all but 4 points down to 3518.00. But not to fresh lows. Au contraire. Yesterday's cash session close was recovered by midnight, and extending higher out of Europe's opens retraced yesterday morning's 3565.00 highs. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The substantial overnight dip doesn't necessarily neutralize yesterday afternoon's excessive optimism. Not its substantial late surge, but the preceding decline whose 1-minute RSIs repeatedly only teased at oversold. Durable lows should include some oversold condition. Gapping up above yesterday morning's 3365.00 highs would be credible for ignoring its premature base. And probably by a lot, as Friday Factors exacerbate the renewed strong-handed buying pressure. This is currently indicated. But exiting the open any lower will likely have only refueled sellers for trending back down, potentially to probe under yesterday's lows to retrace Tuesday's 3506.50 oversold RSI, potentially down to 3488.00-3492.00 -- Friday Factors can cut either way. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3566.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3559.25 bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3550.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 3546.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3543.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Hovering at the highs. Nothing requires retesting any prior highs before reversing down. The overnight high's retest of yesterday's 3565.00 highs up to 3569.00 was retraced to open at 3553.50. Bounces have gotten to 3563.00, but never back up to pre-open or yesterday's highs. Or to Wednesday's 3576.00 highs. This is a bias-up environment, but its target is already met. Overlapping the 3559.25 bias-up target throughout the open reacted down a couple of times to test 3551.00, still well above the 3546.50 bias-up signal. There's that much room below during the bias-up environment. Breaking lower when the bias environment lapses would be credible for trending down more substantially. But trending back down gets increasingly likely if the bias environment isn't exited in rally mode.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3566.00 signal would target 3577.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3553.50 signal would target 3542.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3570.75 3566.00 ...would target 3581.75 3577.00 Bias-down: under 3557.25 3553.50 ...would target 3547.00 3542.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Bored sellers to sleep. Not gapping up today to trend up was likelier to back-and-fill or correct back down, potentially deeply. Retesting Thursday's highs overnight and then only reacting down had made their intraday retest likely first. Retest Thursday's highs, then get on with reacting down. Except opening strength was restrained, only retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back up to the overnight high. The morning's bias-up target was resisting its break, so buyers were sought at lower levels. The bias-up signal was attacked to within 1 point at 3547.50. Recovering before the noon hour was extended to eventually retest prior highs. Slow-playing the retest may have helped the session to avoid a downleg without having to trend up sharply. Of course, the session is up sharply, thanks to overnight action. And this afternoon's bias-up signal has put into play its 3577.00 bias-up target. A fresh post-1:20 high already offers confirmation, and a fresh post-1:30 high above 3572.25 would confirm further. Friday afternoons are the least predictable window, but exiting the bias environment under the 3561.50 noon hour low would be the first suggestion of momentum reversing down.

Trending up Friday wasn't likely without gapping up above Thursday's 3565.00 highs. Their overnight test up to 3569.00 had reacted only enough to make its retest likely before trending back down. Slow-playing the overnight high's retest leveraged the Friday Factors to essentially marginalize strong-handed sellers as the weekend's illiquidity approached. The post-open dip to 3547.50 was reversed to trend up into the last half-hour at 3590.00, aided by a PM Drift setup that is also one of the Friday Factors. The late high touched Monday's mid-day higher prior lows. Its test was too late to trigger a setup that would have required any follow-through to gap up above their 3623.00 interim high. But the recovery above Wednesday's 3577.00 high all but requires that its rejection gap open under Wednesday's 3552.00 lows. Anything in between would not be predictive. Oversold RSIs at Tuesday's low are unfinished business that will be in-play if price returns into its orbit. Unless that re-entry is already underway by Monday's open, unfinished business at last Monday's highs is probably in-play. We'll discuss the possible paths and their characteristics at Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3587.50 signal would target 3600.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3573.75 signal would target 3561.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3593.00 3587.50 ...would target 3606.00 3600.50 Bias-down: under 3579.25 3573.75 ...would target 3565.50 3561.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE