Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 11-18-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Rewarding Monday's rally for having gained traction left the session vulnerable at 2063.50 to at least a pullback. The market seemed eager to process that cycle, already fulfilling the afternoon's 2050.50 bias-down target within minutes of triggering its 2056.00 signal. In fact, its reaction had bounced to probe back above the bias-up signal, postured to resume the rally once the bias would begin lapsing. But a terrorist plot discovered in Germany injected another downleg to 2046.50 and 2041.50, ending the day back at the morning's lows. Overnight action's new info... Before the close, a second plot's discovery had failed to trigger more selling. Firming into the close up to 2050.75 had initially firmed further into the Globex open up to 2052.00. The balance of the night drifted back down to 2043.00, still contained above yesterday afternoon's lows. Anti-terrorist operations in Paris hasn't exacerbated the slide. In fact, the reaction to those operations winding down is surging back into positive territory and probing fresh overnight highs at 2053.50. If, then... There remains potential for extending this stage of the rally to 2068.00 before becoming vulnerable to its next significant correction or trend reversal. A repeat of Friday night's actions would likely end that upside effort. Meanwhile, a couple of Fed speakers and FOMC Minutes lie ahead. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2050.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2055.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2045.50 would become slightly likelier to at least test the 2040.50 bias-down signal by 10:15.

Pre-open rally is extending. There wasn't much reaction down from 2056.75, where yesterday's terrorist threat was announced. Dipping at the open to 2053.00 was recovered quickly to a fresh high at 2058.25. That was extended up to 2060.50. The 2055.00 bias-up signal triggered. The grace period was avoided narrowly when a dip attacked 2055.00. That was in reaction to another terrorist threat headline. It is now recovering to 2059.50. So, the 2061.50 bias-up target is in-play. Potentially, that will lead to testing 2068.00, too. If so, then timing will be interesting since a Fed speaker at noon and FOMC Minutes at 2:00 are still scheduled.

LATE NOTE: Despite exceeding the last buy signal at 2058.75 higher than its first 3 minutes, a spike down probed under 2058.75 by deeper than 6 ticks. This is a mechanical sell signal, suggesting that the selling pressure is overwhelming. I noticed a headline on one channel not (yet) repeated elsewhere which might be the dip's catalyst. This is still a bias-up environment, but knee-jerk reactions can't be prevented.

Actually, nothing can prevent a knee-jerk reaction to headlines, or a complete reversal triggered by another attack. Be sure to have a stop working always.

Already extended ahead of FOMC Minutes. The 2055.00 bias-up signal's 2061.50 target was met on the way to probe above yesterday's 2065.25 high. Its reaction down is now testing 2061.50 as support. There remains potential for also testing 2068.00. The objective need not be met, but the character of its test would be relevant. This afternoon's FOMC Minutes is an obstacle to extending higher. New sponsorship is inhibited before its 2:00 release. So, testing 2068.00 before or after could produce a durable reaction down. Avoiding fresh highs altogether is also possible. Back under 2060.00 and 2057.00 would start to suggest either no favorable reaction to FOMC, or only a momentary knee-jerk reaction up.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2071.50 2067.50 ...would target  2076.75  2073.00 Bias-down: under  2060.75  2057.00 ...would target 2054.25  2051.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The outstanding objective for this stage of the rally was 2068.00. Its test could have been avoided, but it was met, along with prior highs up to 2082.50. No overbought RSIs were left outstanding that might require a retest. The session ended with no higher objective above. The 3:10-3:20 timing window did trend up to fresh session highs. That confirmed the bias environment's exit above the noon hour's high as gaining traction. (The final hour's entry was still overlapping the bias environment's high.) This traction tends to be rewarded by trending higher the following morning, but that's less reliable having trended up so much already. This being Wednesday of expiration week, the WedEX can trigger. Trending higher into the trigger is the basis for a bullish signal. Testing 2082.50 "prior highs" suggests the following session's open may yet confirm or reject that. We'll discuss that point a little more in the morning -- it won't be influential until noon Friday. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxyvmm

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2086.50 2082.75 ...would target  2091.75  2088.00 Bias-down: under  2075.75  2072.00 ...would target 2070.50 2066.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.