Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 12-02-2015

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Through the prior close... Like the overnight rally's correction before it, Tuesday's opening surge indicated that the session was breaking the pattern of its recent range. The surge to 2097.25 was reversed down 13 points, a shock to the system needing to be absorbed through the afternoon. That prevented the rally from gaining traction, but it didn't prevent the final hour from resuming the rally to fresh highs at 2101.50. Overnight action's new info... Hovering narrowly at Tuesday's high suddenly spiked up to 2104.50. That hasn't been extended during the 6 hours since then, as the ranging simply shifted higher. But it might be rejected, as Europe's indexes are testing session lows. The initial range's 2101.00 upper-end which has been support is now being pierced down to 2099.00. If, then... Yesterday's action was bullish for extending the rally, but not necessarily for resuming it immediately. The late surge's sponsorship was weak-handed since it originated after buyers had failed to gain traction. Gapping up is the only path to extending the rally without first correcting down -- and probing fresh highs overnight doesn't assure a gap up. This morning is likely to be spent probing back into yesterday's range, rejecting any bounces. And there is no assurance of resuming the rally today, so there is no assurance of confirming yesterday's breakout. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2098.50 would be unlikely to trigger this morning's 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2092.50 would be likely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal.

Not extending higher, but not yet correcting. Yesterday's late surge originated too late to be sponsored by strong hands. Never mind, gapping up today could have indicated reinforcements had arrived overnight. The delay of not gapping up could have been compensated by the open trending up relentlessly to probe overnight highs. Triggering the bias-up was the last opportunity for offsetting the other shortcomings. But the 2103.00 bias-up signal held its test. Twice. This is a no-bias environment, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2095.50 bias-down signal. More so, this confirms the bearish influences we began discussing during yesterday's Wrap before the close. All interim buying pressure is trapped. The actual pullback could test 2090.00, or even probe temporarily under 2088.00. Unless the bias environment were to begin lapsing at 11:30 above its 2103.00 bias-up signal, the bearish pressure can persist into the afternoon.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2100.25  2099.00 ...would target  2105.00  2104.00 Bias-down: under  2092.00 2091.00 ...would target  2087.25  2086.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Pullback target met. The morning bias environment's range was resisted by its 2103.00 bias-up signal. Holding its test through 10:15 had put into play an offsetting test of the 2095.50 bias-down signal. The actual break lower was slow arrive, but very quick to fulfill its objective. The likelihood for probing even lower was fulfilled during the noon hour's test of 2091.50. Except for 2090.00, the pullback we discussed before yesterday's close wasn't likely to probe much deeper. That doesn't equate to being a buy signal. Lower lows could yet be probed in the context of a temporary pullback -- even 2088.00, so long as the close had recovered. Bouncing is possible, too. In fact, the reaction to Yellen's noon hour speech remarks just reacted up 5 points. But resuming the rally today is not required. The corrective influence may persist into the final hour, and any earlier bounce would be suspicious.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Tuesday's gap up was retraced Wednesday as the recent lows were probed intraday. But once again, they held their test instead of breaking lower. Closing back above 1.0600 would be the minimum requirement to signal a bottom has formed. Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Last Friday's 1054.50 gap down had required a retest from above, and it was filled Wednesday. The 1049.00 low was tested, too. Closing back above 1054.50 would have sealed a bottom, but it was still being overlapped. There is on lower objective, so any initial rally Thursday would be likely to extend higher intraday. Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Although there was no unfinished business below, Wednesday probed under prior lows. Closing back above the original 13.97 gap down was all but required to prevent a new downelg from launching. 30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday's 2-point surge wasn't extended higher Wednesday, which fails to confirm it as a breakout. A fresh ihgh up to 156-12 is likely, regardless of its resolution. Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Long having passed the upside potential from the recent basing, even the most bullish pattern required probing fresh lows. Wednesday's mixture of headlines triggered that probe, so that avoiding a second consecutive lower close Thursday would fail to confirm a breakout. Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Fresh lows Wednesday constitute a breakout from a multi-session consecutive range, and confirmation from a second consecutive lower close would require there eventually to be a third.

We were prepared for Wednesday's drop because Tuesday's late surge was sponsored by weak hands. By the same token, we're expecting Wednesday's late drop to be recovered, because it was sponsored by weak hands, too. Tuesday's late surge had waited until the final hour was underway, and buyers had failed already to gain traction. Wednesday's drop to 2075.00 originated during a no-bias environment, making its sponsorship weak-handed. So, at least its 2091.00 bias-down signal must be recovered. The 2075.00-2076.00 low had all of the necessary elements for a durable bottom. The price area wasn't optimal, but RSIs diverged positively and price action was accumulative, so rallying to 2088.00 and 2091.00 is likely. Recovering them would be bullish. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https

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THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2083.75 2082.75 ...would target  2089.00  2088.00 Bias-down: under  2077.50  2076.50 ...would target 2072.50  2071.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.