Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday night's head-fake gapped back up to the 3708.00 (basis Dec, 3700.00 basis Mar) intraday high and probed higher to 3715.00 (basis Dec, 3707.00 basis Mar) but only ranged narrowly sideways. Breaking lower at Wednesday's open trended down to the afternoon bias environment's 3659.50 (basis Dec, 3651.50 basis Mar) low. Ranging choppily sideways closed at 3660.25 (basis Dec, 3661.00 basis Mar). Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Relatively narrow sideways ranging eventually pierced yesterday's last-minute high by 1 point to test 3680.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) REMINDER: FRONT-MONTH ROLLS FORWARD TO MAR, ALL PRICE QUOTES NOW BASIS MAR   === Under 3683.00 had already put into play 3623.00-3628.00, but candidates along the way could end the decline prematurely. Stopping short of the candidate at 3648.00 yesterday would be credible for a low -- if today's open were to resolve both up and above a relevant level. That doesn't require rallying overnight, but would have been optimal in this setup. Ranging sideways meanwhile still qualifies as a continuation pattern next targeting 3635.00 then 3623.00-3628.00. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

And that was after rejecting both bias-DOWN parameters. The 3645.50 open soon collapsed to 3636.00. And quickly. Just 10 minutes into the first 15 had bounced already up to 3657.00. And then extended to within 1 tick of the 3667.75 bias-up signal.

Normally, 1 tick short doesn't justify invoking the bias signal's grace period. But today is rollover, and the discount/premium fluctuates widely through the day. Bias parameters for the new front month can be a little fungible.

Anyway, bias-up didn't trigger, and this is a no-bias environment. An offsetting test of the 3653.75 bias-down signal is in-play.

Had the bounce avoided the bias-up signal altogether, then rejecting both the 3653.75 and 3643.00 bias-down parameters would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-UP parameters -- including the 3680.00 bias-up target. But the bias measures current sentiment, so the signal is based on the most recently formed parameter. Even triggering clean bias-up wouldn't have established the trend is reversing up to avoid 3623.00-3628.00. So despite recovering a 10-point reaction down after triggering no-bias, and now bouncing to a fresh high at 3668.50, we're still not assured of sellers being down.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3666.00 signal would target 3677.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3648.00 signal would target 3640.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3675.00 3666.00 ...would target 3686.00 3677.00 Bias-down: under 3656.75 3648.00 ...would target 3648.75 3640.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Stability still isn't strength. The range has been relatively narrow and contained since snapping back up from the open's momentary collapse to 3636.00. The 3670.00 morning bias environment high reacted down to 3654.00 by noon. And bouncing only touched this afternoon's 3666.00 bias-up signal to trigger no-bias. While either bias signal should define its end of the window if tested, reacting down from 3666.00 has room to test the afternoon 3653.75 bias-down signal. Drifting lower during the no-bias window would be well-postured to resume the decline. Breaking higher anyway would likely test the 3673.00 overnight high, probably up to the afternoon 3677.00 bias-up target. All while remaining vulnerable to resuming the decline.

The overwhelming majority of Thursday's pattern was only a series of overlapping legs. They began from the morning's 3670.00 high, which itself had recovered from the open's collapse to 3636.00. The subsequent series of overlapping legs gradually retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the recovery back down to 3649.50. The morning's bounce and its reaction down each ended as their bias environments lapsed, and each was then reversed. Wednesday and Thursday's 3660.50 and 3659.50 cash session closes were essentially unchanged from each other. Even the intraday extremes were each 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} projections of the gap-to-gap measurements. All of that equilibrium suggests that Friday will trend convincingly away from Thursday's range before reversing back through it in the opposite direction. Perhaps switching direction twice, very much including the overnight. Meanwhile, without recovering a prior high following intraday dips, nothing suggests the decline is done. Extending the decline to 3623.00-3628.00 remains likely. Gapping up away from Thursday's range and the room for noise around it would be credible for rallying into the weekend anyway. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3668.50 signal would target 3679.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3652.50 signal would target 3642.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3677.50 3668.50 ...would target 3688.75 3679.75 Bias-down: under 3661.00 3652.50 ...would target 3651.00 3642.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE