Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 12-15-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Monday choppy open attacked Sunday night's 2019.50 high to within only 6-9 points. It ultimately slid through the noon hour to test its lowest objective at 1983.50. Rallying through the noon hour back to attack 2010.00 consolidated around unchanged. Not until the 3.37-3:52 position-squaring window began lapsing did price firm back to the morning's highs. That was too late to gain traction for the effort, but no "unfinished business below" was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Initially extending higher Monday night attacked Sunday night's 2019.50 high to within 3 ticks. Consolidating back down to 2010.00 finally resumed rallying at Europe's opens. Attacking 2027.00 has since been consolidating. If, then... A trending effort that doesn't gain traction requires gapping up above relevant resistance to extend the trending without delay. Tuesday's relevant resistance is 2022.50, which is being probed. Maintaining its recovery would next target 2032.00-2033.00 and a test of 2040.00. Rejecting 2022.50 through the open could find support at yesterday afternoon's 2001.25-2005.00 "lower prior highs" before threatening to resume the decline. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2026.25 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding its 2022.50 bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2015.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2017.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Post-open surge creates safety buffer. Pulling back pre-open several points under 2032.00-2033.00 resistance was reversed back up immediately to attack 2038.00. That was the only way to extend the gap up in this pattern. Ultimately the next higher objective at 2040.00 was tested up to my highest calculable resistance at 2041.50. Its reaction down has touched 2034.50. There is no requirement to trend any higher than the 2040.00 test. Overbought RSIs at the high require a retest, but its current reaction down can extend to 2032.00-2033.00 first.    

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2046.50  2038.25 ...would target  2052.00 2044.00 Bias-down: under  2039.50 2030.50 ...would target  2034.50 2025.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bounce potential more than fully satisfied. Actually, the bounce underway could extend next to 2052.00. But that would really be pushing it. Just testing 2040.00 and its room for noise up to 2041.50 sent price down to 2030.50. Its noon hour recovery probed nearly 2 points above the afternoon's 2044.00 bias-up target. The bias-up target wasn't rejected entirely -- 1:20's bias timing window only attacked the 2038.25 bias-up signal as support. And it was only being overlapped at 1:30. Pierced, yes, but overlapped. That reaction down has extended to 2036.75, and it's probably targeting 2034.25. Probing under the bias-up signal isn't unusual, this being a bias-up environment whose target has been met. But the 2038.25 bias-up signal still should be revisited. It's no longer premature for trending to be inhibited by its proximity to tomorrow's FOMC policy statement. The balance of the session could still range choppily, but likely only range or temporarily probe its fringes.

There's no requirement for even a corrective bounce to reach 2052.00. But testing it before Wednesday afternoon's FOMC policy statement could find all available buying pressure has been expended, leaving the market vulnerable to another downdraft. That's already a risk from Tuesday's bounce having tested and (ultimately) held its 2040.00-2041.50 objective, rejecting its intraday probe up to 2046.00. Price action like the afternoon's corrective dip back down to 2032.00-2033.00 helps to neutralize that overbought condition. But meanwhile, the Friday-Monday Island pattern must be revisited at some point. And there's on assurance of it holding and launching a more durable recovery. So a durable recovery's best hope is not to react negatively to Wednesday's rate hike (or lack thereof). Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/yptzyfv

This evening when you can't access the intraday chaRTroom platforms, here's the OmniView link (we're switching to it exclusively soon, so please confirm you can access it easily): https://v7.omnijoin.com/join?dn=srt1

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2050.00 2041.00 ...would target  2057.00  2048.00 Bias-down: under  2039.00  2030.00 ...would target 2034.25  2025.25 Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.