Real Time Market Updates and Trade Signals - 12-16-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's gap up extended immediately through 2032.00-2033.00 resistance and fulfilled potential to 2041.50. An 11-point dip reacted up 16 points to attack 2046.00. But the probe of fresh session highs failed, as did its retest, before the close dipped back down toward session lows. Overnight action's new info... Gradually ratcheting up to attack yesterday's highs, a single probe higher has touched 2050.50. Its initial reaction down to test 2046.00 is now extending deeper to attack 2044.00. If, then... Yesterday's rally gained no traction for its effort. Extending higher today would require gapping up above yesterday's highs. Extending higher without gapping up is still possible, but then very likely to trend back down -- especially if 2052.00 had been tested already. Trending at all this morning isn't likely with this afternoon's FOMC policy statement looming. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2044.00 would be likely to trigger the 2041.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2051.25 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding its 2048.00 bias-up target at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2034.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Opening spike up begins trending back down. The open was greeted at the 2048.00 bias-up target. A spike up almost immediately tested 2052.00. The gap up above yesterday's ~2046.00 high was maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. So, reacting down should prove only temporary.

In fact, reacting down has been relentless and substantial.

2046.00 and 2048.00 gave way as support. Yesterday's range was probed, as low as 2039.00. This being a bias-up environment, its lower-end should be defined by the 2041.00 bias-up signal. Which is being probed as support. Bouncing should test 2046.00. Perhaps even the 2048.25 opening print. Its retest from below is all but required, now that yesterday's range has been probed from above. Retesting the opening print and already trending down into FOMC can neutralize its attraction above. Not yet neutralizing that attraction above would greet the FOMC news from a position of strength.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2053.75 2044.75 ...would target  2060.00  2051.00 Bias-down: under  2044.00  2035.00 ...would target 2034.25  2025.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Wednesday's high ultimately reached 2068.75. The close dipped modestly to 2064.75. Every prior high that was tested along the way was recovered -- no prior high's test was rejected. After two consecutive trending days, that is a bullish WedEX. Probing a prior high and closing back under it would have formed a passively bearish WedEX. That signal could be sent by proxy, gapping down Thursday under two prior highs. A little bit of how that effects the bigger picture, along with other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjpxyk

This evening when you can't access the intraday chaRTroom platforms, here's the OmniView link (we're switching to it exclusively soon, so please confirm you can access it easily): https://v7.omnijoin.com/join?dn=srt1

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2078.25  2069.25 ...would target  2084.50  2075.50 Bias-down: under  2066.75 2057.75 ...would target  2059.50  2050.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.