Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Trending down into Monday's close down to 3637.50 was rejected by Tuesday's gap up above the 3664.50 afternoon high. Triggering the session-long rally setup first detoured back down to the 3652.00 morning low. Each of the three remaining timing windows probed higher highs to fulfill the setup -- only by 1 tick at the very last minute's 3388.50 high. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Ranging sideways through midnight hovered under Monday's 3691.50 high back down to 3680.00 at its low point. Ranging narrowed into Europe's opens, which triggered a breakout. The break has already extended 12 points to attack 3701.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Tuesday's last-minute peak was 3 points short of Monday morning's 3691.50 high, and its restrained optimism is bullish from a contrarian perspective. Now its likely retest up to 3693.50 is being probed, so pullbacks can use 3691.50-3693.50 as support. Extending higher intraday is likely, but not for gapping up. And despite Tuesday's rally gaining no traction for its effort. Rather, gaps up have been reversed repeatedly post-open, but yesterday's reversal was the first to recover the gap intraday. Also, session-long setups tend to extend the next morning anyway. An unusual catalyst today is the afternoon FOMC events. Anxiousness ahead of it tends to inhibit trending, usually just ahead of it, allowing the morning to trend. So long as pullbacks hold 3691.50-3693.50 as support, or the 3703.50 bias-up target isn't holding its test, momentum remains intact. This morning's price action doesn't change the multiple widely fluctuating sessions already preceding this afternoon's events, which make it the most reliably opportunistic trading environment. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

No offsetting test in-play. NOTE: Buildings in my area have lost power this morning. The electric company is aware of the issue. A pre-open surge attacked 3702.00, which econ reports snapped back down to 3689.00. Trending down further through the open attacked 3681.00. A long was from 3693.50 bias-up signal, and threatening the 3678.00 bias-down signal. But it was an empty threat. Setups and influences had made this morning likelier to hold up, if not also to trend up. And the recent pattern of gaps up reversing down had begun recovering sooner. In fact, fresh post-open highs are already being probed up to 3695.00. But the 3693.50 bias-up signal wasn't triggered, so it should define the window's upper-end until the window is lapsing. Probing above it before then would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Retesting overnight highs before this afternoon's FOMC events is possible, and would still have lower prior highs to support pullbacks. Nothing requires trending up later, but restrained optimism ahead of this afternoon would help the rally's chances.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3700.50 signal would target 3713.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3688.75 signal would target 3678.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3708.00 3700.50 ...would target 3720.75 3713.25 Bias-down: under 3696.00 3688.75 ...would target 3685.50 3678.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Waiting on FOMC. The gap up's reversal was recovered in the same timing window. So progresses the week-long pattern that began with two gap up reversals extending down through the day, and then yesterday's afternoon recovery. Having conditioned market participants to buy the gap down, the pattern should soon evolve into buying overnight weakness to reverse it back up. Then extending gaps up can get on with the next upleg. Meanwhile, anxiousness ahead of this afternoon's FOMC events (starting at 2:00, then 2:30) has kept today fluctuating around its 3691.00 open. Widely fluctuating sessions preceding today keeps the door wide open to volatile headline reactions and plenty of room for trending -- in either direction.

Ranging sideways overnight above 3681.00 finally broke higher at Europe's opens, attacking prior highs up to 3701.50. Reversing down through Wednesday's open touched 3681.00 and bounced again to 3696.00. Anxiousness ahead of the afternoon's FOMC events kept price within its range, before probing a new high at 3704.50. The last half-hour dipped back down to attack 3692.00. Wednesday's gap up was reversed back down like three others in the past week. But it was reversed back up during the same timing window. Tuesday's similar setup was recovered only in the same session. Two prior setups didn't recover that day. Buyers are being conditioned to buy weakness, and that will soon become impatience that prevents gaps up from reversing down. Perhaps that next weakness will be overnight, or in reaction to high-profile reliable catalysts on Thursday's econ calendar. But until proved otherwise, the rally gets every benefit of the doubt. All the more so, if not for the FOMC influence, since Wednesday afternoon's bias environment was exited under the noon hour low, but still entered the final hour above noon hour highs. The 3:10-3:20 Proxy window did end at a fresh afternoon high helps to make any initial strength Thursday credible for extending higher. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3703.50 signal would target 3713.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3688.00 signal would target 3677.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3711.00 3703.50 ...would target 3720.75 3713.25 Bias-down: under 3695.25 3688.00 ...would target 3684.25 3677.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE