Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... The new year arrived with a gap up from 2236.50 and rally Sunday night, a gap up and rally through Monday's open up to 2259.50, and then a plunge through the morning down to 2239.50. The plunge retraced only the overnight lows, which was still 4 points above Friday's close. That was 2240.50, which had been relevant support -- albeit brief support -- on Friday. Being a new year, it was tested throughout two timing windows, and then broke higher during the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window to its 2252.25 target.. Overnight action's new info... Except for the open's brief dip to 2251.00, yesterday's late rally has only extended higher overnight. The slope is shallow, but steady, eventually touching 2257.00. Reacting down nearly 3 points has recovered entirely. If, then... Gapping down under yesterday afternoon's lows could have formed a "session-long decline," which would have proved instantly that the late surge was a false break. That's not happening. Gapping up isn't immune to reacting down post-open, but the overnight gain and late surge can absorb a lot of selling pressure before damaging their uptrend. that's if there's a reaction down, at all. The overnight rally stopped pessimistically short of resistance at 2257.50 before its deepest correction. That pessimism can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. A morning rally will be likely so long as any post-open reaction is shallow, or simply avoided. Otherwise, a post-open dip will have room before targeting a retest of yesterday's lows -- which is required eventually, and now even likelier to break lower at that time. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2250.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2253.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2255.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Gap up above prior highs is maintained. Extending yesterday's late rally this morning was likely to begin immediately, if at all. The 2256.25 open shot up 5 points, and then another 3-1/2 points to touch 2263.75. That was the first 5 minutes. So, resuming the rally did start immediately. Fulfilling the rally was pretty immediately, too. The balance of the first hour back-and-filled down to 2257.50. The 2259.50 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, although its renewed bias-up target was already pierced at the high. But the open's range was maintained above prior highs. Above yesterday morning's high, which was reversed upon testing "higher prior lows." Above those higher prior lows. And above last Wednesday morning's first consolidation of the open's plunge. This is an anchor. It doesn't prevent reversing down, but does help to ensure a reversal's complete eventual recovery. Another dip under 2258.50 would likely trigger that attempt to reverse down. Otherwise, a probe above 2273.00 is the ultimate objective.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2271.50 2265.75 ...would target  2276.50  2271.75 Bias-down: under  2264.75  2259.00 ...would target 2259.00  2253.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hovering through the highs, into and out of the noon hour. The open had surged from 2256.00 up to almost 2264.00. That was the opening 5 minutes. That was corrected down to 2257.50 through the balance of the hour. The balance of the morning retraced the opening high. And the noon hour probed it by 1 point. Its fresh high was isolated to the noon hour, but only shallowly. Rejecting a more decisive rally effort, or a more decisive rejection, would have suggested the weakest-handed buyers were done. That would have been bearish. But that was avoided. No-bias triggered, but back under 2261.00 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway. Meanwhile, the rally is free to resume, and to at least test this afternoon's 2265.75 bias-up signal until the bias environment begins lapsing.

Probing above 2266.00 did prove itself to be an inflection point. But probing it after the proxy window did prove to be too late to be durable. Its reaction from 2267.25 was reversed down to only 2264.00, and didn't extend down. So, no compelling hold long, but nothing that prevents briefly probing fresh highs as has been expectations for how a top would form. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2272.50 2267.75 ...would target  2278.25  2273.75 Bias-down: under  2264.75 2259.25 ...would target 2258.25  2253.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.