Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's drop didn't extend Tuesday, but it was partially retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} intraday. A pre-open dip to 3673.00 was quickly recovered by the open's surge up to 3714.00. Stalling there put into play a test of the morning's 3683.75 bias-down signal, which was only attacked to 3687.00 at the morning bias window low. Rallying through the noon hour and afternoon bias window got to 3730.00 where another stall reacted down to 3713.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Ranging narrowly through Globex's first hour broke higher to attack 3735.00. Reversing down just as quickly soon extended down to 3686.00. It was retested after an interim bounce up to 3719.00, but the pattern continues ranging choppily sideways in negative territory. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Multiple probes overnight of both bias-down parameters would make it that much more bullish if not repeated post-open. That said, closing back under 3721.00 yesterday suggested that any fresh highs at 3736.00 or even new highs testing 3758.50 and 3773.00 would now be the product of weak-handed sponsorship, so only temporary and likely rejected. Meanwhile, one more significant high-profile election event comes today in the Senate. I think that any remaining election uncertainty still influencing price action negatively will prove temporary, and likely to hold tests of unfinished business at 3683.75 or 3666.00-3670.50. Any lower would likely retest Monday's test of 3684.25, and there's no bullish reason for that. Also influencing today's action is the pre-open ADP which offers some insight into sentiment ahead of Friday's payrolls. This afternoon's FOMC Minutes tends to inhibit price action before the release more than it triggers a reaction. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Bullish scenario playing out easily. Too easily? Thorough overnight testing of the 3697.00 and 3707.00 bias-down parameters had established this morning's bullish scenario. If post-open selling couldn't extend below their support, then overwhelming buying pressure would likely fill the vacuum. Post-open ranging between the bias-down parameters didn't find reinforcements before countertrend sponsorship surged. Its reversal extended higher up to 3741.00. Exceeding both the 3725.25 and 3736.00 bias-up parameters through 10:15 both triggered and renewed the bias-up signal. Meanwhile, a 5-stager setup developed along the post-open path. But its 4th stage's plateau resolved up, instead of retracing the 2nd stage's Running Correction. This tends to maintain upside momentum for the timing window's duration, perhaps going into the noon hour. Already the 3749.50 renewed bias-up target is being probed by 1 point, with potential up to Sunday night and Monday's 3758.50 and 3773.00 highs.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3769.00 signal would target 3780.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3753.50 signal would target 3740.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3778.00 3769.00 ...would target 3789.75 3780.75 Bias-down: under 3762.50 3753.50 ...would target 3749.00 3740.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Been here. Sold that. A very last minute high attacked 3775.00, neutralizing the last remaining unfinished business above -- retesting Sunday night's 3773.25 Globex extreme intraday. Its reaction down rejected the 3769.00 bias-up signal to trigger no-bias. New Year's Eve close on Thursday was the last time all unfinished business had been neutralized. And a long time before that. Monday didn't delay showing the rally's vulnerability, plunging down to 3652.50. Is that what tomorrow holds for the market? Or, even this afternoon. Thursday neutralized unfinished business with a late surge. Today still has the entire afternoon to trade. Bonds are collapsing, Precious Metals are suddenly on sale, and FOMC Minutes are minutes away. Nothing requires further trending today in either direction. But there's room to the 3753.50 bias-down signal for the next hour without yet being no-bias trending. Plenty of room below after that -- if sellers gain traction.

Wednesday was greeted by overnight weakness that had fluctuated around the morning bias-down parameters. The bullish scenario simply needed the open not to extend lower. And the post-open dip to 3696.00 did reverse up sharply and relentlessly to the afternoon high attacking 3775.00. The new highs neutralized all remaining unfinished business at 3758.50 and 3773.25. The balance of the session trended back down to eventually touch 3730.00. The 3757.00-3758.00 area was the rally's longstanding target, and was already met last Thursday. Thursday's close had also neutralized all remaining unfinished business. Their combination created vulnerability that was exploited by Monday's collapse. Wednesday provided a similar combination, by retesting the rally's target, and also neutralizing all unfinished business. Was that combination's vulnerability already satisfied by Wednesday's last downleg? Probably not. We now have two intraday tests of 3757.00-3758.00 that closed lower. This joins Tuesday's probe of 3721.00 higher prior lows that also closed lower -- which had warned that new highs would also be rejected. And now we also have PM Traction from Wednesday afternoon. Exiting the afternoon bias window under the noon hour low, and entering the final hour lower, suggests that Thursday morning will also trend down. Discernible uptrending through Thursday's first 15 minutes would suggest otherwise. Meanwhile, any bounce should fail. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3752.25 signal would target 3764.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3731.00 signal would target 3721.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3761.50 3752.25 ...would target 3773.50 3764.25 Bias-down: under 3740.00 3731.00 ...would target 3730.50 3721.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

I want to be sure everyone gives Wednesday morning's bullish setup enough attention to recognize its underlying concepts when the setup reappears. The nearby chart image comes from the pre-open Market Tour, when we first discussed the setup. Overnight action had entangled itself in the morning bias-down parameters. Probing either way around the bias signal and its target, unable to break lower. New sponsorship at the open may very well have accomplished what overnight sellers could not. And that was the bearish scenario. Otherwise, the absence of productive post-open selling would instead reveal that sellers were weak-handed. Surging made it easy to recognize this, but knowing the bullish scenario made it easy to recognize what the surge was signaling. I draw attention to this setup because it was so very productive. While at least an offsetting test of the bias-up signal would have been triggered, the recovery managed to trigger bias-up. The setup appears often on smaller scales that are equally reliable, but this instance's sizeable productivity helps to see the concepts underlying its profitability. Don't hesitate to seek more discussion on this setup, and others, to ensure you get the greatest degree of comfort.