Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Not gapping up Tuesday was already unlikely to rally intraday. Otherwise, trending down was only  a vulnerability. Overnight probes above Monday's 3249.50 high to 3254.50 had failed to produce a gap up. Those failed probes, combined with opening under the 3241.75 earlier Globex low, then formed a bearish Globex-flip. The setup is most reliable when it appears in the context of multi-session trending, which Tuesday was not. So, the open's drop to 3231.75 was the session low, but no rally caught traction, and negative territory was maintained throughout. A late downleg extended to fresh afternoon lows at 3234.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Quite the round trip last night. A post-close plunge to 3226.00 quickly reacted up to attack 3234.00. Then came the news of Iran's missile strikes on a US base in Iraq. Less than 2 hours later and almost 53 points lower, a 3-1/2 week old 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement was being pierced by 3 ticks at 3181.00. I labeled it in the chaRTroom, and its reaction extended as it became clear that damage was light, possibly as intended. Just 2 hours later and 49 points higher, the collapse was retraced entirely back up to 3230.00. Flat-to-higher greeted Europe's opens at 3235.00, eventually accelerating its pace and NOW PROBING ABOVE YESTERDAY'S 3243.00-3245.00 HIGHS. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Surely the country has seen or heard the news. But if they didn't see the market's reaction, then they might not think there was any. I'm not sure this is the reaction the Mullahs had in mind. The recovery is now indicated to gap up above yesterday's highs. That would almost form a "session-long rally" setup if maintained through the open. Just maintaining the gap up would give buyers the traction they failed to gain yesterday afternoon. Then yesterday's backing-and-filling would be the correction of Monday's intraday recovery, AND the retest of last week's lows would be done. Best of both worlds for the rally's sake... if the gap up is maintained through the open. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3243.00 would be likely to trigger the 3242.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3237.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 3237.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3233.00 bias-down signal.

cc: IRGC. The overnight detour to 3181.00 had recovered to test and retest 3246.25. Its reaction down through the open touched 3236.00 and snapped back up through 10:15 to 3249.50. So, just as the 3242.00 bias-up signal was triggering, its 3249.00 bias-up target was being met. Met, but not exceeded to renew the bias-up signal. Having met its target, extending any higher is dubious before Trump's 11:00 scheduled remarks. This is still a bias-up environment, so testing its 3242.00 bias-up signal as support should define the window's low. 3242.00 is being tested now down to 3238.25. That's quite deep, and its required retracement could be a catalyst to resume the rally. Back above 3243.00 would start to signal as much. Only retracing 3242.00 could resolve down instead as the bias environment lapses.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3262.50 3262.50 ...would target 3268.25 3268.25 Bias-down: under 3253.75 3254.00 ...would target 3247.75 3248.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hanging at the highs. Remember way back to the year's very first trading session, almost an entire week ago? Seems like a lot longer than that. Its afternoon rally had initially extended to new highs at 3259.00-3260.00, and then to 3263.50. But only momentarily until the US strike headlines hit.

Just recovering last night's 3181.00 low back up to its 3235.00 origin was pretty impressive. The recovery extended to 3262.00 just before noon. Welcome to 2020.

Today's Market Tour described several reasons to be bullish not only for this morning, but also going forward. For this morning, gapping up would give buyers traction that they had not earned yesterday afternoon. Going forward, last night's deep, steep, round trip is reminiscent of Trump's election night, which served to slingshot the rally higher. This morning's hovering between its 3242.00-3249.00 bias-up parameters broke to a fresh intraday high at 3262.00 to hover through the noon hour. This afternoon's no-bias environment is still consolidation, but its exit would be credible for trending either way. Trending up would be vulnerable to reversing down if its fresh highs were rejected by 3:00 ET or through the proxy window.

Wednesday's similarities to a much earlier Wednesday pattern tracked almost identically through the close. The session was greeted with the complete round trip of a deep, steep drop from 3235.00 to 3181.00 and back up again. The morning's 3249.00 bias-up target contained the morning bias environment high. Trump's televised statement triggered a surge to 3262.00 before noon. Flat-to-lower ranging resolved up sharply at the afternoon bias environment exit, rallying to new highs at 3267.75. The 3266.25 pullback limit was being violated when I noted the impending close made a sell signal unlikely -- not without being triggered by an artificial catalyst. Iran(ian-backed militia) said, "hold my beer." Rockets were reported in Baghdad, triggering a last-minute collapse to 3252.00. Its reaction barely recovered to last Thursday's 3259.25 high close. Closing higher would have put into play 3355.00. The session still qualifies as a breakout from a multi-session range, so a second consecutive higher close on Thursday would confirm. The rally gained traction for its effort, despite exiting the bias environment under the noon hour's high. Traction was gained anyway by entering the final hour above the bias environment high and the proxy window trended higher. Overbought RSIs at the require its eventual retest. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3260.00 3260.00 ...would target 3266.75 3266.75 Bias-down: under 3250.75 3251.00 ...would target 3242.50 3242.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.