VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: MON P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: MON A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Market Pre-Open Strategy - 7:25 AM
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Previously : Overnight ranging between its 3825-3845 had broken to fresh lows at 3819, where Fri's NFP headline triggered a spike up to 3874. Pre-open and post-open reactions down to 3836 and to Thu's 3829 gap-fill recovered to 3903 by noon, and flat-to-lower ranging through the no-bias window broke higher to 3929.
Overnight price points : Sun night's firm open has ranged flat-to-higher including higher highs at 3931 and 3934, while fluctuating around the 3925 bias-up signal.
Catalysts : No econ reports, Powell tomorrow.
Setups/Patterns : Gap & Pause.
Their influences : The 3-week old 3919 prior highs is finally being retested, and should produce at least 2 consecutive timing windows of complex trending above it.
Premise : Finally retesting the 3-week old Gap & Pause setup's 3919 now opens the door to trending above it, i.e. at least two timing windows -- probably consecutive, and of complex legs that don't just probe briefly higher. Next higher attractions are clustered near 3946, and its recovery would all but ensure probing 4000.
Alternative : The last similar setup to Fri's breakout was reversed back down almost immediately, and exiting the weekend deeply enough could be a credible start to another reversal back to recent lows. NDX has been underperforming the recent upside, so its own fresh lows would be an early indication.
Levels : UP: 3946, 3977, 4008… DOWN: 3892, 3874, 3841.
Trade Signals - Market Open Update - 10:46 AM
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Previously : Sun night's firm open has ranged flat-to-higher including higher highs at 3931 and 3934, while fluctuating around the 3925 bias-up signal.
New price points : Eking higher pre-open quickly tested 3944. The gap up's reaction down touched Friday's late 3929 low, and its reaction surged. No longer overlapping Friday's high, the first 15-minute range was exceeded through 10:00 up to 3957 and maintained through 10:30. That's now being probed up to 3967 on simultaneously overbought RSIs.
Catalysts : No econ reports, Powell tomorrow.
Setups/Patterns : RENEWED BIAS-UP... Gap & Pause.
Their influences : The 3-week old 3919 prior highs is finally being retested, and should produce at least 2 consecutive timing windows of complex trending above it.
Triggers/Tactics : The character of price action did change after the open, albeit after a post-open dip touched Fri's late high. That helps to neutralize the vacuum down to Fri's 3916 cash session close, and keep alive upside momentum. Simultaneously overbought RSIs suggest that a reaction down will recover. Now testing 3963, extending higher this morning has potential to 3960 or 3977.
Alternative : The open and morning bias window are on-track to have trended above the Gap & Pause setup, fulfilling its minimum expectation, which would allow a reversal to gain traction.
Levels : UP: 3946, 3977, 4008… DOWN: 3892, 3874, 3841.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3978, targeting 3991.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3958, targeting 3943.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Market Mid-Day Predictions - 2:04 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Ranging flat-to-higher overnight eked higher pre-open to gap up. A reaction down to Fri's late 3929 high surged back up, and extended sharply higher.
New price points : Trending up through the bias window to 3973 left simultaneously overbought RSIs outstanding as the noon hour trended back down into the P.M. bias window, extending down to 3935.
Catalysts : No econ reports, Powell tomorrow, Gap & Pause neutralized.
Setups/Patterns : LATE BIAS-DOWN... Gap & Pause neutralized, overbought RSIs.
Their influences : The morning's two timing windows trended above the 3-week old Gap & Pause setup's 3919 highs to fulfill the setup's minimum upside requirement... Simultaneously overbought RSIs at the 3973 high require its eventual retest.
Triggers/Tactics : Neutralizing the Gap & Pause setup's minimum upside coincided with the bias-up lapsing. That enabled anxiousness ahead of Fed Chair Powell's morning appearance to inhibit further upside, and for a reversal to gain traction. The anxiousness cuts either way, and natural support at the 3939 open can offer support for ranging flat-to-higher through the afternoon.
Alternative : More Fed speakers are scheduled post-close, and could enable a deeper pullback ahead of Powell, potentially filling the gap back to Friday's 3916 cash session close.
Levels : UP: 3946, 3977, 4008… DOWN: 3892, 3874, 3841.
Bias Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Ranging flat-to-higher overnight eked higher pre-open to gap up. A reaction down to Fri's late 3929 high surged back up, and extended sharply higher through the bias window to 3973. Simultaneously overbought RSIs were left outstanding as the balance of the session trended back down to 3910.
Catalysts : Powell pre-open, Gap & Pause neutralized.
Setups/Patterns : Gap & Pause neutralized, overbought RSIs.
Their influences : The morning's two timing windows trended above the 3-week old Gap & Pause setup's 3919 highs, neutralizing the setup's minimum upside requirement... Simultaneously overbought RSIs at the 3973 high require its eventual retest.
Premise : Mon's reversal into negative territory under Fri's 3916 cash session close was delayed until the final hour, and then each probe lower also overlapped 3916. Closing negative decisively would have been bearish, but instead sellers gained no traction for their efforts. Meanwhile, overbought RSIs at Mon's 3973 high require its eventual retest, initially to 3977 and potentially through 4000. No particular timing window needs to track, but the rally is free to resume Tue morning.
Alternative : Anxiousness ahead of Powell's speech might be justified by actually reacting negatively beyond Monday afternoon's defensive posturing, but that can only be absorbed down to 3895 lower prior highs before starting to reverse down more substantially.
Levels : UP: 3946, 3977, 4008… DOWN: 3892, 3874, 3841.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Plan - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3921, targeting 3939.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3901, targeting 3887.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.