Visualize. Identify. Do It.

REMINDER: I'M AWAY TODAY 11AM-2PM ET

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : BOJ triggered a 30-point spike up to 4030 where ranging narrowed again, for Wed's PPI/Retails Sales headlines to test the 4033 bias-up target and react back down. Its retest triggered bias-up, after retesting the 4033 target, which reversed down sharply through the balance of the session to 3944.
Overnight price points : The slide soon resumed, testing the 3937 bias-down signal by midnight, and extending at Europe's opens to now probe under the 3924 bias-down target to test 3913.
Catalysts : ECB's Lagarde: "Revise positions", Medvedev: "Nuclear war", Philly Fed, Fed speakers.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : 50% Retrace.
Their influences : 3924 now being tested overnight is essentially the halfway point back to Jan 6 lows that preceded the recent rally, and can be natural support. The 61.8% retrace would be next at 3901.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Probes above 4008 weren't gaining traction but reactions below it had yet to reverse the trend down. This was sellers' last opportunity to launch a downleg, at least to find stronger-handed buyers at lower levels e.g. 3925, 3884 to sponsor the next upleg.
Alternative : Already being so close to the optimal 3925 pullback objective didn't prevent extending through it, at least not overnight. Slow-playing the decline would now mean bouncing into and/or out of Thu's open, albeit temporarily to only fill the gap back to Wed's 3944 cash session close.
Levels : UP: 3944, 3963, 3974… DOWN: 3914, 3884, 3860.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

REMINDER: I'M AWAY TODAY 11AM-2PM ET

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Wed's slide extended overnight, testing the 3937 bias-down signal by midnight, and extending at Europe's opens to now probe under the 3924 bias-down target to test 3910.
New price points : Pre-open econ reports triggered knee-jerk reactions up and down in a relatively narrow 3907-3916 range that resolved up to 3922. Post-open strength probed 3925 resistance up to 3934 before resolving back down through the first hour to 3911.
Catalysts : ECB's Lagarde: "Revise positions", Medvedev: "Nuclear war", Philly Fed, Fed speakers.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : BIAS... 50% Retrace.
Their influences : 3924-3925 was tested overnight, essentially the halfway point back to Jan 6 lows that preceded the recent rally, and can be natural support. The 61.8% retrace would be next at 3901.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Stronger-handed buyers at lower levels like 3925 may be coming aboard, which we'll know if the close has recovered 3925 -- preferably the post-open highs above 3929-3934. The slow-playing will have worked, and may still be at work before Fri morning ranging resolves up to fill the gap back to Wed's 3944 cash session close and higher into the weekend.
Alternative : Extreme reactions on headlines tend to be retested before a durable reversal can develop. That is being done now to its minimum 3911, but likelier would be to probe actual overnight lows down to 3901. This would make a recovery more credible, but meanwhile open the door to a deeper pullback e.g. 3884.
Levels : UP: 3944, 3963, 3974… DOWN: 3914, 3884, 3860.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

THU P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 3918, targeting 3931.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3897, targeting 3884.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.