Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday night's Globex got favorable China news. It triggered a relentless overnight rally from its opening blip-down to 3236.00, reversing up through Friday and Monday's highs to attack 3290.00. Tuesday's opening dip briefly attacked 3282.00 as support, touching Thursday's cash session close as support. The rally resumed, relentlessly again, touching 3304.50 by noon. The balance of the afternoon ranged flat-to-lower to 3294.00-3296.00. A last-minute surge got back up to 3300.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Initially dipping to attack 2888.00, Globex ranged narrowly sideways through midnight. Europe's opens were greeted at the 3290.75 bias-down signal. And apparently Europe's opens were greeted by new stories about a possible coronovirus cure. It triggered a surge to 3319.25, and then to 3331.25 -- just 7 points under the two-week old highs. A pullback is now trying to hold 3320.00 as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's gap-and-go setup is usually followed by a pullback day, but its eventual reward is higher highs regardless of the path there. The alternative to a pullback day is to gap up above yesterday's 3304.00-3305.00 highs. No problem, the open is indicated much higher than that. Extending higher through the open would help to confirm the morning will trend higher, too. Meanwhile, yesterday's gap-and-go setup is a reflection of stretched sentiment, and so is the overnight 43-point range. This morning or entire session remain vulnerable to a pullback, and that will be its premise if not extending higher through the open. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3317.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3311.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Pullback day, after all. Recovering the overnight rally's 3331.25 high through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, or at least 3328.00, was likely to extend the rally this morning. Resuming upside momentum would otherwise require stretching the rubber band back down. In other words, backing-and-filling, a pullback morning or entire day. Not even testing 3331.25 or 3328.00 would have had no particular downside requirements. But holding a test of either would have made a pullback likely to test 3311.00. The 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement back to yesterday's close is 3308.25-3311.00. The open was 3328.00, and probing it momentarily by 5 ticks was reversed down aggressively to 3317.50. That didn't prevent retesting 3328.00, perhaps the reaction's impatience even invited the 3328.00 retest. But the retest held, and now its reaction is attacking 3311.00 to within 3 ticks. 3306.00 and 3302.00 would retrace 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of last night's surge(s) that had reacted to the coronavirus cure stories. A pullback day would be likely to reach one or both. Reversing the trend back down today isn't likely, and even the most bullish bearish scenario could still retest today's highs before launching another downleg.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3329.00 3327.25 ...would target 3334.75 3333.00 Bias-down: under 3317.25 3315.50 ...would target 3310.00 3308.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The open still holds. The first reaction to testing 3328.00 was a quick collapse down to 3317.50. Its retest was likely to hold, and likely to be more productive, and produced a drop to within 3 ticks of its 3311.00 objective. Potential to lower lows was never fulfilled, never attempted, as 3328.00 was attacked going into the noon hour. Now this afternoon's 3327.25 bias-up signal has held its test to trigger no-bias. Its reaction down to 3321.25 has been retraced back up to 3327.25. This is still a no-bias environment, and probing any higher prematurely would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Probing any higher any later would be free to extend. Even the pullback day wouldn't be an impediment once the bias window lapses. But this is still a pullback day for a brief while longer. And back under 3324.25 would offer one more chance to keep alive today's post-open backing-and-filling.

NOTE: With the runaway TSLA pattern finally including a reaction down, I can start plotting out potential reversal paths. I'll describe several common features to this pattern during today's Market Wrap. For now, note that the 701-704 area is relevant support. (Also note that several other "relevant supports" have been broken already today).

[The end of today's Market Wrap recording is an expanded review of the possible blow-off top forming currently in TSLA, describing possible paths back down (and up, then back down more so).] Tuesday's gap-to-gap setup had formed by extending and/or maintaining a gap up to 3305.00 through the bias environment, and then hovering through the afternoon. The gap's sponsorship had earned higher highs, which usually follows a pullback day. Overnight action initially tracked that template down to 3288.00 until a favorable coronavirus headline triggered a surge to 3331.00. None of which prevented Wednesday from serving as a pullback day. Two tests of 3328.00 resistance each triggered deeper and deeper reactions down, eventually coming within 3 ticks of the pullback's 3311.00 minimum target. The noon hour and afternoon bias environment hovered under 3328.00. The window's exit was free (and likely) to resume the rally, which extended to 3336.00. Its reaction held another target at 3327.00, which recovered to fresh highs at 3338.00 through the close. Not just fresh highs, but above the two-week old 3337.50 high. The 3324.00 and 3328.00 prior high closes were also exceeded by Wednesday's 3333.50 and 3335.00 closes. That qualifies to fulfill the outstanding requirement for an eventual higher close. It's sub-optimal for not exceeding prior intraday highs, but would not have qualified if prior highs were probed temporarily intraday. Regardless, at least probing higher Thursday is likely. Regardless of being new highs, Wednesday's late breakout pattern is likely to follow its intraday backing-and-filling with a rally through the following morning. Anxiousness ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report might inhibit an afternoon rally, or even promote an afternoon pullback. A bigger question is whether Friday will produce a new trend high close to re-entrench the rally. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3339.50 3337.75 ...would target 3345.50 3343.75 Bias-down: under 3328.00 3326.25 ...would target 3322.25 3320.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.