Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's weak open duplicated Tuesday's opening weakness. No-bias was triggered without touching either bias signal, but a late break above the 2336.50 bias-up signal extended anyway to 2343.00. Satisfying its required retracement to within 2 ticks at 2337.00 was deep enough to resume the rally. And the afternoon's no-bias signal was again no impediment to breaking the 2342.25 bias-up signal to 2349.75. The rally gained traction for its effort, despite the "unfinished business below" back down at 2342.25 and possibly 2341.00. Wednesday's post-close surge up to 2351.50 duplicated Tuesday's last-minute short-squeeze. WedEX triggered actively bullish. Overnight action's new info... Globex immediately dipped back down through Wednesday's 2349.75 high, and gradually extended to within 1 tick of the 2346.75 cash session close. Hours of ranging sideways back up to 2349.75 finally probed lower to test Wednesday's last-minute 2346.25 low. If, then... WedEX triggered actively bullish, easily. And the session ended ultimately in a short-squeeze. Yet, it was the first session in a week to leave "unfinished business below." The contradiction is mixed signals only if one is left outstanding. The no-bias trending origin at 2341.00-2342.25 can be neutralized easily Thursday morning, and a consolidation can preserve energy until needed to fulfill the bullish WedEX Friday afternoon. Avoiding the dip and pause to resume rallying immediately could lead to an inverted WedEX that collapses into the weekend. For now, it's Occam vs. Pavlov, i.e. Dip and pause is the likelier path higher, until disproved by rallying immediately this morning. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2351.00 would be likely to trigger the 2349.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2346.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Flat-to-lower open trades lower-to-flat. The overnight slide had extended down to 2344.50 before bouncing into the 2348.00 open. And through it, up to 2349.75. That tested the bias-up signal by 3 ticks, which held through 10:15 to trigger no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2342.00 bias-down signal was attacked to within 3 ticks or less. It won't become "unfinished business below" if left outstanding. Yesterday afternoon's 2342.25 bias-up signal was also retraced to within 3 ticks, neutralizing its required retest. Selling done? Possibly, but that wouldn't default back to rally mode. This IS a no-bias environment. In fact, bouncing up to 2347.75 is reacting down sharply back to new session lows. Meanwhile, nothing has changed about the timing, which enables a deeper retracement before even consolidating. But now the 2342.25 bias-down signal should define the window's lower-end, at least to not let a break stray too deep.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2347.25 2345.50 ...would target  2353.00 2351.25 Bias-down: under  2341.25  2339.50 ...would target 2335.25  2333.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Rally pauses for another no-bias. This morning's bias environment neutralized both the offsetting test of this morning's 2342.00 bias-down signal and yesterday's "unfinished business below" at 2342.25. That was done during a plunge from 2347.75 that eventually touched 2336.75. But no-bias had already triggered. Probing under this morning's 2342.00 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment is "no-bias trending." It requires bouncing back up to at least 2342.00, if not also to the 2344.00 10:15 print. Both were tested during the noon hour. The bounce also attacked this afternoon's 2345.50 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. No-bias has triggered again. The 2339.75 bias-down signal was attacked into 1:30, but held. Probing under it could still test fresh session lows, once again as "no-bias trending" that would require recovery. Without there being an objective in-play, and without first testing an extreme, price action through the close may otherwise be less predictable.

Did President Trump just warn us of the rally's top? Here's his tweet from this morning: Stock market hits new high with longest winning streak in decades. Great level of confidence and optimism - even before tax plan rollout! I bolded the last fragment for emphasis, "even before tax plan rollout". The six-day old breakout of this rally was triggered in part by remarks promoting a "tremendous" tax plan. Wednesday morning's opening dip was rescued by an off-the-cuff remark reminding us of the "massive" tax plan in the works. Clearly, a tax plan can be wholly imagined and have quite an effect on prices. The rally is sparked by market participants believing a tax plan is coming, and that it will be tremendous and/or massive, having a future positive impact for companies and for their stock prices.As the President said tweeted this morning, even before tax plan rollout!

So, this hasn't actually been the tax cut rally. It is the anticipation for tax cuts rally.

Several other potentially bullish inputs are also helping to push prices higher. But at some point, potential future developments become priced into stocks. There's always a discount for risk, and for the time value of money. Or, there should be a discount. Occasionally even that discount is overtaken when a move becomes so high-profile that it attracts many non-professionals. Non-professionals don't buy the earliest stage of a move because they're not yet convinced. Inversely, the more convincing a move becomes, the more non-professional buyers it attracts. Therefore, no price is too high to non-professionals that only now are buying into what is a very convincing move -- the more convincing, the more that it's worth. It's a wonder how rallies ever stop. Oh, right. Meanwhile, professionals are focused on those disappearing discounts. They stop buying. Then they start selling.

Now, my own work on this rally continues to suggest it has some more room to advance. The broad base that launched the rally rarely produces only one-legged breakouts. And this first upleg's degree and duration is usually followed by a second.

But between those first and second uplegs is a correction. A correction can begin in this pattern at almost any time, albeit much more credibly after this weekend than before it. Immediately preceding the first upleg's corrective drop tends to be wide agreement of the story behind the rally.

Not necessarily the entire story. Non-professionals don't understand the impact of this week's Yellen testimony, and expiration, and seasonal bullishness ahead of the three-day holiday. So they also don't understand that these influences are all within hours of disappearing. And non-professionals also didn't notice the past 2-3 sessions have ended with short-squeezes. Contrarians did. Regardless of whether this week's bullish WedEX signal is fulfilled going into the weekend and coming out of it, another upleg remains likely. But this first upleg is exhibiting characteristics that suggests it reflects a tremendous, massive tax plan, which isn't even close to being rolled out. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2350.00 2348.25 ...would target  2355.75  2354.00 Bias-down: under  2341.25  2339.75 ...would target 2335.00  2333.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.