Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's 3393.75 new high had been probed overnight up to 3397.50, but without complexity that otherwise requires its intraday retest. Anyway, its reaction collapsed to 3376.50, and Thursday's gap down to 3380.00 formed a Globex-flip by holding under the 3388.75 earlier Globex low. The setup's bearish context might have been ignored but for a negative AAPL/coronavirus headline that triggered a 49-point collapse from retesting 3388.75. The low stopped magically within 2 ticks of the fully testing 3339.00-3341.00 "lower prior highs" that any downleg was likely to test. Bouncing out of Thursday morning's bias environment retraced much of the collapse up to 3375.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Thursday's collapse isn't being shrugged off. The close was dipping back down to 3369.00, and the Globex open immediately extended the reaction to attack 3353.00. Its consolidation broke lower at midnight to 3345.00. That's a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement back down to yesterday's low, and its room for noise. Bouncing out of Europe's opens quickly recovered to test 3359.00, which has since held as resistance. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday's recovery gained no traction for the effort, so extending it Friday morning must begin by gapping up. Not impossible being 16 points under yesterday afternoon's high at this time, but unlikely. Rallying from negative territory can extend temporarily, but would be likely to fail. Dipping only shallowly Friday morning would allow an afternoon rally, but not make it any likelier. Meanwhile, the ongoing rally hasn't yet been rejected, despite this week's multiple dips chipping away again at the recent range's support. But there is still no "unfinished business" above, now for a second consecutive session. That's both unusual for this rally, and not the desired position of strength for greeting expiration and the weekend's illiquidity. There's also no unfinished business below, except for a likelihood of retesting Thursday's "V" bottom down to 3333.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3361.75 would be likely to trigger the 3365.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3356.50 would be likely to exceed the 3358.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3370.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

And yesterday's low retested. The 3345.00 overnight low was retraced by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back up to 3362.00 before the 3357.25 open. Overnight action had backed-and-filled more than enough, so extending higher this morning had no excuse to delay. But post-open action did delay, and soon collapsed on the way down to 3336.25. The attraction to retesting yesterday's "V" bottom is now neutralized. Consolidating there is trying to bounce, which would have potential up to 3353.00. But a bounce is not required, and this attempt isn't going well. The decline is free to resume, which would be triggered under 3340.00 -- which is now being attacked. The next lower attraction is at 3333.00. This 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the lower range would have one opportunity to hold as support. Not exploiting that opportunity by bouncing might not find relevant support before testing 3291.00.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3352.00 3351.75 ...would target 3359.00 3358.75 Bias-down: under 3342.75 3342.50 ...would target 3337.25 3337.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

And down, and down, and down. Consolidating the post-open collapse bounced 12 points to 3348.00. Its failure fell to fresh lows testing the 3333.00 target by 1 point. Exiting the bias environment back above the prior bounce's 3348.00 high would be the optimal behavior of a durable recovery. It was only attacked by noon. That didn't prevent probing higher through the noon hour's exit, testing 3350.00. But this is expiration, which is difficult to stop trending already underway. Failing to reverse the morning's drop probably won't consolidate, and is more likely to extend the decline. Trending back down since the noon hour exit is now attacking 3333.00 again. Its break would encounter only prior lows and neutralized lower prior highs before significant support at 3291.00 offers another chance to end the decline. Friday Factors can cut either way. A favorable headline could turn this sinking ship around. Otherwise, the earliest opportunity to assume any strength is organic would be to recover 3343.00 through a relevant window.

Thursday night didn't hesitate repeating the morning's 50-point collapse, albeit shallower in depth and slope. But it certainly didn't produce a gap up that was needed to extend the afternoon's recovery attempt. Friday's opening 25-point collapse extended just enough to retest Thursday's "V" bottom at its 3339.00-3341.00 target. A bounce resolved down to fresh lows fulfilling the "V" bottom retest's 3333.00 target. Another bounce up to 3350.50 through the noon hour also resolved down to fresh lows at 3328.00. Friday's last minutes bounced sharply, and it had a weak-handed short-squeeze feel. The bounce originated upon only touching an earlier low which qualifies it as obligatory, it peaked at 3339.00-3341.00 which is now resistance since holding Thursday's low, and its sponsorship was likely expiration's influence which isn't organic. A hold-short was compelling for Monday to gap down under 3323.00, albeit barely reacting down enough to trigger short-entry. But simply rejecting the late bounce should resume the decline anyway, next targeting 3291.00. Initial strength coming out of the weekend could test 3365.00 before signaling more than just a temporary corrective bounce. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3346.25 3346.00 ...would target 3355.00 3354.75 Bias-down: under 3330.00 3330.00 ...would target 3322.25 3322.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.