Real Time Stock Market Trade Signals - 03-03-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Not gapping up Wednesday prevented trending up immediately. But it didn't default to a sell-off. Choppy trading did poke lower intraday, but didn't extend down, while waiting for the afternoon's bias environment to lapse. The balance of the session trended up to touch the 1984.75 overnight high's "new Globex trend extreme" before the close. Overnight action's new info... Initially pulling back to 1978.50 was recovered to higher and higher highs that eventually attacked 1988.00. Its reaction back down to 1978.50 had largely recovered before reacting down again under yesterday's 1984.50 cash session close. Meanwhile, continually overlapping yesterday's session has avoided creating another "new Globex trend extreme" which would have required intraday retest. If, then... Overnight choppiness around yesterday's highs is another sign of waning upside momentum. Whether that's potentially bearish, or even eventually bearish, it's not necessarily immediately bearish. Beginning yesterday's session with a similar challenge only delayed its later improvement. Today's version of that challenge could still probe higher, perhaps earlier and only temporarily. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1987.25 would be likely to trigger the 1986.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1979.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Opening weakness ultimately holds critical support. The 1982.00 open was 2-3 points under yesterday's close. Post-open action trended down immediately -- and substantially, attacking the 1975.50 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. A bounce resolved down to retest 1975.50 by a couple of ticks. Another bounce pierced it yet again. That last test invoked the grace period, and ultimately the 1975.50 bias-down signal did not trigger. So, this is a late no-bias environment.

An offsetting test of the 1986.00 bias-up signal is in-play. Its test isn't required since the bias signaled late. But already fresh post-open highs just touched 1983.00.

Meanwhile, the 1982.00 open is being overlapped. It is natural resistance. But fresh session highs remain likely so long as pullbacks hold 1979.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1983.75 1981.25 ...would target  1988.50  1986.00 Bias-down: under  1978.00  1975.50 ...would target 1971.50  1969.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Being within the orbit of Wednesday night's 1987.00 highs made their retest likely, despite not being required. Testing the upside attraction right at the bias environment's exit could have gone either way. Resistance could have repelled the recovery, but instead resistance accelerated the recovery higher. Potential to 1993.00 was attacked to within 5 ticks. That is the best singular representation of a cluster of targets in this area. There being potential for a knee-jerk reaction to the morning's news, we should be aware of outliers at 1997.25 and 2001.00. The recovery high close doesn't prevent reacting down at Friday's Employment Situation report, no more than the rally's momentum assures reacting up. But reacting down would likely be only temporary, at least until retesting Thursday's close from below. And since Thursday's rally gained no traction for its effort, extending durably higher requires gapping up. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1996.25 1993.75 ...would target  2003.25  2000.75 Bias-down: under  1987.50  1985.00 ...would target 1981.50  1979.00 Signal status:NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS PARAMETERS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.